Consumption Accelerated Improvement Index Continues to High Level——Analysis and Outlook of Petroleum and Chemical Sector Performance (Part 2)

In the first half of the year, driven by the rise in crude oil prices and the recovery of downstream demand, the petroleum and chemical sectors rebounded strongly
.

Regarding the later trend, many fund companies believe that the domestic monetary policy will shift from "preventing risks" to "steady growth", and the rapid increase in the amount of vaccination is conducive to the accelerated improvement of consumption in the second half of the year

The oil price has a greater chance of rising

In the first half of the year, with the economic recovery, the demand for crude oil gradually recovered, which promoted a strong increase in oil prices
.

WTI and Brent crude oil not only recovered all the land lost since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but also further rose to the high price since October 2018

"In the second half of the year, the balance of crude oil supply and demand will continue to be repaired, and the center of gravity of oil prices will continue to rise
.

" Analyst Sui Xiaoying, a researcher at Founder Mid-term Futures Co.

Morgan Stanley and Citibank analysts both said that even if OPEC+ reached an agreement to increase production in the later period, oil supply growth in other regions is very limited, and the oil market may still be in short supply, which will keep the oil price in the second half of the year at $75 to $80.
/Barrel high
.

Nanhua Futures energy analyst Hu Ziyang believes that the demand for crude oil from major economies in the world will continue to grow, but the global economic recovery is characterized by imbalances, and the growth rate will gradually slow down.
Part of the increase may mainly come from European and American countries.
On the supply side, although OPEC has sufficient crude oil production capacity in the short term, the supply momentum is not sufficient
.

It is expected that the structural tightness of the crude oil market will continue in the second half of the year.

　　The chemical sector maintains prosperity

　　In recent years, the country has continued to strengthen environmental protection supervision in the chemical industry, eliminate outdated production capacity, and support the development of new chemical materials.
This will have a profound impact on the industry structure
.

Wanlian Securities pointed out that the combined supply side, demand side and raw material side three factors, it is expected that the profit level of listed companies will continue to stabilize and rise in the second half of the year

　　Everbright Securities believes that the global chemical market will continue to show a relatively high degree of prosperity, and is optimistic about the four major sub-sectors with definite opportunities: First, this year's performance will increase significantly year-on-year and benefit from the crude oil industry chain reformed by state-owned enterprises; The epidemic and the impact of its own production cycle have led to a significant mismatch between short-term supply and demand of lithium hexafluorophosphate, titanium dioxide, refrigerants, phosphate fertilizers and phosphorous chemicals, and glyphosate sub-sectors; the third is the promising LCD liquid crystal, OLED, and photoresist sub-sectors; 4.
It is the tire sub-sector that is undergoing export substitution
.

　　Wanlian Securities proposes to focus on liquid crystal materials and OLED materials under the trend of shifting panel production capacity to China, biodegradable plastics under the background of domestic strengthening of plastic restrictions, and automotive exhaust treatment materials under the vision of carbon neutrality
.

At the same time, the global economic recovery has driven crop prices to change from the previous weakness and entered a fast upward path, stimulating farmers' enthusiasm for farming, which has triggered the growth of demand for pesticides and fertilizers.

　　In terms of individual stocks, the Kaiyuan Securities chemical team launched the top ten gold stocks in the second half of the year: Xinfengming, Hengli Petrochemical, Sanyou Chemical in the chemical fiber sector; Jinshi Resources, Juhua Stock, Sanmei Chemical in the fluorine chemical sector that reversed the bottom; Phosphorus Chemicals sector Yuntu Holdings; Stick and Haohua Technology in the new materials sector; Binhua Holdings, which is undergoing transformation
.

　　It is recommended to configure periodic assets

　　Cong Shanshan, an energy analyst at Huishang Futures, said that in the second half of the year, the trend of bulk commodities may diverge, and the chemical sector may be stronger than the non-ferrous metals and ferrous sectors; based on expectations for the future of the global economy, including tourism, transportation and other industries Or it will recover, when the center of gravity of crude oil prices will continue to move upward, so the increase in crude oil-related varieties may be more obvious
.

　　"Commodities will gradually return to a rational state in the second half of the year
.

" Su Wenjie, Manager of Harvest Resources Selected Fund, believes that from the demand side, the current global demand is gradually improving; from the supply perspective, the global manufacturing supply is still at a discount compared to before the epidemic.

　　"In the future, the capital market is highly likely to be volatile.
The overall situation will be a staggered pattern of economic and corporate profit growth, and policies gradually returning to a stable and neutral pattern.
There is no basis for a unilateral large bull market or a unilateral large bear market
.

" Chief of Harvest Fund Said Fang Han, Executive Director of Strategy and Asset Allocation

　　Industry insiders predict that the monetary policy will be moderately tightened in the second half of the year, and the economy will not be low after the previous high, and there will be better structural opportunities in the A-share market
.
Long-term goals should be held for cyclical asset allocation.
Combined with the implementation of the carbon peak and carbon neutral policy, various industries will have different investment opportunities
.