Consequences of BSE (12.14)

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Deng Ruihong At the end of 2000, when France fell into the crisis of mad cow disease, there was a wave of banning meat and bone meal As the demand of soybean meal, which can replace animal protein, is likely to increase, Chicago market rose sharply From November 14 to December 4, soybean meal and soybean increased by 13% and 7%, soybean meal increased from 166.8 to 187.6 US dollars / short ton, soybean meal increased from 4.8 to 5.2 US cents / bushels In less than a month, the mad cow disease caused by France spread across Europe The final result came from the European Union's final decision on December 4 to ban all meat and bone meal The timetable is as follows: on November 8, the French government called for an immediate ban on the use of meat and bone meal in animal feed due to fears of mad cow disease On November 14, France officially banned the use of meat and bone meal in animal feed, including poultry, pigs, fish and pets The ban came into effect on November 15 On November 17, Italy announced that it was forbidden to feed the feed containing animal meat and bone meal to herbivores, and it was forbidden to import the adult cattle and beef from France for more than 18 months It is planned to test the BSE of the adult cattle over 24 months in China from January 2001 On December 1, the German house of Lords voted to ban the use of meat and bone meal Previously, the German government claimed that their feed was very safe because of its huge loss subsidy to farmers once it announced the ban on meat and bone meal feed After special high-pressure disinfection, the feed was used to feed animals other than cattle without any problem However, when the German government was embarrassed, soon after the first case of mad cow disease was found in China, the German government was forced to join the ranks of banning meat and bone meal On December 4, EU agriculture ministers from 15 countries gathered in Brussels, and the ministerial meeting formally approved the ban of meat and bone meal feed in the EU So far, this storm has a satisfactory ending During this period, some countries, including Greece, Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic and Switzerland, unilaterally banned the import of live cattle and beef products, although they did not take strict prohibition measures BSE, also known as bovine spongiform encephalopathy, is a serious infectious disease that endangers the central nervous system of cattle In cattle infected with the disease, the brain nerves will gradually become a sponge like cheese body, eventually leading to death Human consumption can lead to the same Creutzfeldt Jakob disease as mad cow disease BSE was first found in the UK in the 1980s, and then it became widespread in the UK In 1996, the UK took the lead in banning meat and bone meal The source of BSE outbreak in France came from supermarkets not long ago Since France and the European Union banned the use of meat and bone meal in cattle feed in 1990 and 1994, meat and bone meal was allowed in poultry and pig feed The first case of BSE in France was found in 1991 Not long ago, three new cases of BSE infection occurred again in France Beef with bovine spongiform brain (BSE) was found again in supermarkets, which caused great panic This year, the total number of infections in France reached 89, compared with 30 in 1999 It is believed that BSE bacteria are largely infected in feed processing products made from animal water Therefore, from France to Europe, the awareness of BSE is unprecedented, and the resistance to meat and bone meal is further upgraded The focus of the market is how much soybean meal demand can be increased when the meat and bone meal is banned? There are many opinions in the market According to the oil world, the feed demand for meat and bone meal in the whole EU is about 2 million tons per year After the comprehensive ban, the EU needs 215-2.2 million tons of soybean meal to replace it According to the French oilseed processing association, the EU ban on meat and bone meal will increase soybean imports in the region by 8% to replace meat and bone meal in animal feed For the EU, the demand for soybean meal may be either directly imported or processed in the region to meet the demand for soybean meal in the region Therefore, how to import depends on the processing capacity of EU countries Whether it is import or processing, it is a real support for the soybean and soybean meal market We expect that the annual demand for soybeans or soybean meal in the EU is estimated to be between 2-3.5 million tons If meat and bone meal is banned for half a year, the demand for substitutes is only 1-1.8 million tons For the annual import of 16 million tons of soybeans and nearly 20 million tons of soybean meal in the EU region, the static demand can only increase by 2.5% - 4%, which has little impact on the market, It should also be noted that, although the increase in demand is limited, for the global oilseed market, this change in demand is likely to become a fuse, which will lead to a substantial increase in global demand for oilseeds, especially before the South American harvest season, the change in demand factors will largely dominate the Chicago market.