Comprehensive analysis of corn market in production and marketing areas

Introduction: at present, China's corn market is generally stable, while the northeast corn market is active, while the market in the sales area is quiet, and port prices are also different The main reason for this difference lies in the different psychological trends of enterprises in the production and marketing area The specific situation is as follows: Leu I the market in the production and marketing area Most of the grain enterprises with export tasks and export conditions are still active in export sales, but not in domestic trade sales The market sales prices remain firm for the following reasons: Leu 1 The benefits of domestic and foreign trade for enterprises are different Domestic trade sales can get more policy support On the one hand, the railway department has loose policy on export car, and grain can be effectively transported to the port On the other hand, enterprises can get government subsidies through exports, with low risk coefficient Leu 2 The profit margin of domestic trade sales is small Due to the substantial increase of purchase price, the increase of purchase cost of enterprises in the production area and the corresponding increase of sales price, the market in the sales area seems to ignore the fact that the purchase enthusiasm is weak, the purchase price is under pressure again and again, the inherent psychology of "buying up but not buying down" is not revealed, and the sales profit of enterprises in the production area is affected Leu 3 The work of warehouse clearing and inventory checking was generally carried out At present, the national clearance and inventory inspection work has been carried out, and the enterprises with insufficient inventory in the early stage of grain storage have begun to purchase in large quantities It is understood that some enterprises are still carrying out the replenishment work, and the enterprises with sufficient inventory dare not relax Most enterprises plan to carry out the large-scale sales work after the clearance and inventory inspection work, which correspondingly reduces the number of effective grain circulation in the market Quantity Leu 4 The sales prospect of domestic trade is promising At present, the corn inventory in the Central Plains is almost exhausted In addition to barely meeting the production demand of the surrounding grain enterprises, large-scale outward transportation activities have stopped Some enterprises have invested their purchase intention in the Northeast in the later stage In the case that corn import is difficult to operate, the market supply in the later stage will depend on the northeast The enterprises are optimistic about the sales prospect in the later stage Leu 2 From the perspective of the market in the sales area, most of Leu's enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mentality They are not willing to purchase the inventory in the production area in large quantities, and the market price is not stronger The specific reasons are: Leu 1 The quality of corn is low In the early stage, due to the poor quality and high moisture content of new corn in the market of northeast corn export and sales area, the increase of sales price was affected, and the purchasing enthusiasm was affected Leu 2 The procurement prospect is optimistic Due to the partial liberalization of the corn purchase and sale market in the Northeast production area, the collection and storage enterprises are not only limited to the state-owned collection and storage enterprises, but also private enterprises The procurement channels of enterprises have been widened, and enterprises are not eager to purchase under the condition of ensuring normal production Leu 3 The repercussions of Warehouse Clearance and inventory inspection were not so good Looking back at the grain clearance and inventory inspection in 2001, affected by the decrease of supply quantity and the insufficient preparation of some enterprises in the production area, the market demand is strong, and the market price promotes upward Now, after the promotion and inventory reduction last year, the sales channels of enterprises in the production area are more standardized, and the influence of the market on the favorable factors is obviously weak Leu 4 The market questions the price rise performance Under the influence of various favorable factors, the market price in the production area has been rising unilaterally since the Spring Festival, and the price in the sales area has not been affected by the upward trend The market transaction in the production area is flat, so the enterprises in the sales area can not help but question the sharp rise of the price in the production area, have some expectations on the price drop in the later period, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong Leu III from the perspective of Central Plains market Due to the large consumption of the existing stock in the Central Plains corn market, the export activities have basically stopped Due to the uneven distribution of the corn stock in China, the Central Plains corn is sold by the way of keeping no stock It is expected that the corn supply quantity in the area will be exhausted around May 1st, and the Central Plains corn production area will also change its position and join the market of the sales area, and the market price will also be changed It will fluctuate with the prices of northeast production area and southern sales area It can be said that the Central Plains market is transforming from a production area to a sales area, in which the market price is hovering Leu IV from the port situation Considering the regional differences, the influencing factors of port prices in the north and the South have different emphases Ports in the north, such as Dalian port and Qinhuangdao port, are more likely to show the sales price of corn in the Northeast; ports in the south, such as Guangdong and Fuzhou, are strongly affected by the quantity, quality and demand of the north; therefore, under the condition that the price of corn in the northeast is rising steadily, the price of ports in the north also shows the same performance However, the demand of enterprises in the sales area of southern port is not strong, and the quality of corn has not changed significantly Leu comprehensive overview: through Leu's in-depth analysis, we can see that the most critical factor in the price trend of the domestic corn market is the different psychology of the buyers and sellers of the enterprises in the production and marketing areas Enterprises in the production area are optimistic about the future market, with the support of a good export market, the sales price is strong; enterprises in the sales area pay more attention to the negative factors of the market, emphasize the downward expectation of the market price, and the market performance is low LeU
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