Comment: why can't wheat prices go up?

Introduction: foreign news on October 9: the world's wheat inventory is the lowest level since 1995 / 96 Many grain traders believe that wheat prices will rise from now on Those who want the price of wheat to rise lament that the current price does not match the fundamentals of the market The explanation may be that after examining the fundamentals, analysts should look further away from the US and other major wheat exporters Last year, the world's total wheat export was 102.9 million tons Five major wheat exporting countries supplied 89.1 million tons, equivalent to 87% of the world's wheat This year's wheat exports are estimated to be 107.2 million tons, of which 86.1 million tons, or 80 percent, have been supplied by five major wheat exporting countries This is the lowest level of trade in major wheat exporting countries in recent history Last year, non-traditional wheat exporting countries exported 13.8 million tons of wheat This year, they may export 21.1 million tons Last year, Eastern Europe, FSU, India and Pakistan exported 8.65 million tons This year, it is expected that they will export 16.8 million tons In addition, Argentina's export increases, which puts pressure on the price of wheat in the market The reason is that wheat prices from these exporting countries are usually low For example, India uses a large number of subsidies, so India's wheat price to exporters is only 89.40 US dollars per ton A good example is Ukraine, which plans to export up to 7 million tons of grain this year, compared with 2 million tons last year Officials there say the agricultural commodity exchange has so far registered an export contract for 1.677 million tons of feed wheat The price of refined wheat exported from Ukraine is currently US $98 to US $106 per ton on FOB basis, and that of feed wheat is US $73 to US $79 on FOB basis.