Coal tar: supply and demand beat the "golden nine"

Since the beginning of September, the domestic coal tar market has ushered in the "golden nine", continuing the upward trend in August and continuing to rush higher
.
As of October 8, the domestic mainstream transaction price rose to 6000~6100 yuan (ton price, the same below), a monthly increase of 4.
5%, and the price of high-end coal tar in Shanxi even exceeded 6300 yuan, hitting a record high
.

"The continuous rise in the market since August is related to the overall rise of energy products, and the increase in inter-regional price differences due to the uneven start of domestic coke enterprises has also helped to continue the market in September, among which the price in the main producing area of Shanxi took the lead and once led the domestic market as one of
the larger driving factors.
" The positive trading atmosphere boosted the upstream and downstream, contributing to the booming supply and demand pattern in September, and it is not ruled out that the market may still continue to rise in October
.
Liaoning trader Sun Benfeng said
.

Supply and demand are strong and beat the "Golden Nine"

According to the statistics of Henan Chemical Industry Network, as of the end of September, the average operating rate of domestic coke enterprises was 77.
6%, an increase of 2.
9% month-on-month, and coal tar production increased
significantly.
"Although the comprehensive operating rate of downstream deep processing enterprises is only 47%, down 1% from the previous month, due to the impact of the sharp inventory consumption of deep processing enterprises in August, warehouse replenishment and stocking were fully implemented
in September.
From the perspective of transactions, the pattern of supply and sales has been achieved, and it also perfectly reflects the 'Golden Nine' market
.
Sun Benfeng said
.

The sales person in charge of coke enterprises in Shanxi, Hebei and other places reported that the operating rate of coke enterprises in northwest China in September decreased by 8% month-on-month to about 70%; In East China, it increased by 5% to 80%.

Affected by the regional operating rate, the transaction price in Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places took the lead in rising, the high-end price in Shaanxi rose to 6180 yuan, and the high-end price in Shanxi was as high as 6320 yuan, and once changed the pattern of the coal tar market in the south and north, and also contributed
to the general rise of the market.

The downstream market supports the "silver ten"

Market first-line information shows that in September, due to the continuous high level of the domestic coal tar market and the continuous low start of downstream deep processing enterprises, the deep-processed products coal pitch, industrial naphthalene, anthracene oil, etc.
have begun to rise sharply, and have been transmitted to the downstream one after another, and the rise of deep-processed products has continued to expand
.
For example, the deep-processed product coal pitch, which accounts for 55% of the proportion, rose to about 7,400 yuan in September, of which the high-end price of modified coal pitch in Shanxi even exceeded 8,000 yuan, a comprehensive increase of more than 11% month-on-month, and industrial naphthalene and anthracene oil increased by 15% and 9%
respectively.
Affected by this, the average profit of the overall ton of deep processing enterprises in September was 100~200 yuan, the industry turned from loss to profit, and deep processing enterprises in various places actively purchased raw materials, all of which had plans
to increase the operating rate.

"The feedback from deep processing enterprises in various places shows that it is unlikely that the operating rate will be greatly increased in the short term, and the downstream market is expected to continue to improve, forming a favorable support for the coal tar market that is already at a high level, and the 'silver ten' market may still be expected
.
" Cui Huajie, head of operation of Henan Ruiyuan Xinneng Chemical Technology Co.
, Ltd.
, said
.

The market is expected to continue to soar

Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator, said that in August this year, China's national consumer prices and national industrial producers' ex-factory prices both increased compared with the same period last year, indicating that China's economy is still developing well
.
However, due to the high temperature and rainy weather of the month, the epidemic and the international situation, the performance of August data fell slightly from the previous month, indicating that the industry's phased rebound showed signs of falling, especially industrial products with excessive gains were inevitably down.

Based on the current favorable support of the coal tar market, it is not ruled out that there will continue to be a high rise, but the downstream consumption has not shown significant growth, the follow-up power is insufficient, and the high level of return will appear at any time, and it is expected to become a key node
in October.

According to industry analysts, the US Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point interest rate hike, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to 3%~3.
25%, the largest intensive interest rate hike since 1981
.
This will also have a certain impact on China's market, such as tightening liquidity, global economic growth may continue to slow down, and capital outflows from emerging markets lead to commodity
sell-offs.
Therefore, it is recommended that the industry actively pay attention to the recent changes in market trading volume under the background of relatively stable macro environment, such as the increase in the operating rate of deep processing enterprises, changes in international and domestic energy markets, etc.
, to avoid risks and seize opportunities
.