Chinese people should calm down and face the large increase of corn import after China's accession to WTO

Introduction: according to China's WTO commitments, in 2002, China's import tariff quota for corn was 5.85 million tons, which will increase to 7.2 million tons in 2004 In 2002, state-owned enterprises accounted for 68%, private enterprises accounted for 32%, and by 2004, the proportion of private enterprises will increase to 40% That is to say, if the state grants the quota in full, there will be 1.87 million tons of corn imports in 2002 in the hands of private enterprises Even if the state does not issue the quota in full, as long as the quota is issued, the private enterprises will have a share, and once the commercial conditions are appropriate, these private enterprises will import, so theoretically speaking, the increase of corn imports is inevitable The U.S Department of Agriculture said in its latest report on supply and demand of agricultural products that after China's accession to the WTO, China's corn imports in the international market will increase to 1 million tons in 2001 / 02 Last month, the U.S Department of agriculture estimated that China imported only 200000 tons of corn However, if we only look at 2002, China's corn import volume will not soar immediately, because, first of all, the great power effect, if China imports a large amount of American corn, it will cause the world corn market price to rise, which in turn will inhibit the import of American corn The price trend of domestic and foreign corn market is the criterion to measure the international corn trade, How much corn will be imported in the future depends on the international market price At present, the supply and demand of corn in China is basically balanced, and the stock is quite abundant In the short term, there will be no shortage of corn supply Moreover, the corn production in China also rebounded in 2001 / 02, which will prevent the large-scale import of corn to some extent Since July 2001, the market price of corn in China has declined significantly, while the price of feed wheat has risen steadily due to the growth of demand Therefore, the price comparison between corn and wheat has changed significantly since 2001 / 2002 Some feed and breeding enterprises that used a large amount of wheat in 2000 / 2001 have started to consume corn again, so analysts will The annual feed corn consumption increased from 91 million tons to 92 million tons In 2001 / 2002, China's total corn consumption is expected to reach 122.7 million tons, and the ending balance of this year is expected to be - 10.47 million tons, that is, the corn stock in September 2002 is expected to be 10.47 million tons less than that in September 2001, the lowest level since 1996 / 1997, and the industrial consumption (such as corn starch, alcohol, maltose, citric acid industry) is expected to be 10.5 million tons However, it is expected that the actual stock of corn in China will remain at a high level, and the basic balance of supply and demand will not change substantially In addition, China will become a formal WTO member on December 11 If the quota is issued at the end of the year, the time will be very tight Therefore, the government may postpone the issuance of the quota Assuming that the quota will be issued before the middle of next year, and then the private enterprise will get the quota before ordering, plus the transportation time of one month or so, when the imported corn arrives in China, the domestic corn will soon be received At this time, the domestic corn price will face the harvest pressure and go down The importers may not be willing to import a large amount of corn at this time In short, we should try our best to minimize the negative impact of imports, and at the same time, vigorously develop the domestic corn processing industry and feed breeding industry