China's poultry import is on the rise

Introduction: in the recently published world agricultural market outlook (2002-2009), the European Union analyzed and predicted the world poultry market pattern in the next seven years This analysis is based on the results of agricultural development assessments conducted by some major forecasting agencies and within the EU From 2001 to 2009, it is expected that the international poultry market will remain optimistic, and all markets will basically show a steady growth trend If the growth of poultry market is affected by the poultry disease crisis in some areas in the short term, the poultry market as a whole benefits from the outbreak of BSE and FMD It is expected that the world poultry production and consumption will continue to grow in the medium term, with a growth rate higher than that of beef and pork production and consumption, although in the 1990s, poultry production and consumption were lower than that of beef and pork production The expansion of poultry market is driven by the low cost of production (relative to beef and pork production) and the consumption tendency in many parts of the world (which is related to the shift to Western-style eating habits and health considerations) According to OECD and FAPRI forecasts, the world poultry production and consumption will increase significantly in the next seven years, with the growth rate slightly less than 20%, that is, the annual average growth of about 2% Production in countries and regions with high poultry production (such as the United States, China, the European Union, Brazil and Mexico) will continue to grow as domestic and global demand increases In general, most of the growth in poultry production and consumption comes from developing countries In the medium term, the share of poultry consumption in meat consumption is expected to increase in most countries, mainly due to the price advantage of poultry relative to beef and pork, the increase of income and the change of food demand mode in many countries Therefore, in many countries with relatively low per capita poultry consumption (such as China, Mexico, Russia and Eastern Europe), the improvement of economic situation is expected to promote the development of poultry processing industry in the first place In addition, as consumption trends continue to change, poultry consumption in some countries with high per capita consumption will also increase, albeit moderately Despite the rapid growth of poultry consumption in many countries (such as China and the Middle East), it is expected that the growth rate of poultry production will not be large, and the increased demand will lead to a strong growth momentum of trade volume (from 2001-2009, the average annual growth predicted by USDA is 3%, and the average annual growth predicted by FAPRI & nbsp; is 4%) The increase of trade volume of divided poultry meat is greater than that of whole poultry The consumption of poultry meat in China exceeds the domestic production, showing a sustained growth trend, and the import volume is expected to increase According to USDA forecast, by 2009, China's poultry meat net import volume is about 569000 tons, while OECD and FAPRI expect that in the medium term, China's poultry meat import momentum is very strong, reaching 741000 tons (OECD) and 1041000 tons (FAPRI) China's poultry imports reflect China's consumption preference for a variety of cheap poultry products (such as chicken feet, wings and chicken water), which complement each other's demand for poultry products in many countries USDA and FAPRI predict that further trade liberalization will promote Mexico's net import of poultry, but OECD predicts that Mexico's net import of poultry will stagnate, which is due to the reduction of poultry production costs caused by vertical integration of domestic poultry industry Russia is another big market for poultry exports Due to the lack of investment and low efficiency, domestic poultry production in Russia is growing slowly, and it is expected that the growth of poultry consumption will be met by increasing imports USDA and OECD forecast that the import of poultry meat in Russia reached 500000 tons, but FAPRI predicted that the consumption of poultry meat in Russia was moderate, and the net import of poultry meat in Russia was less than 120000 tons by 2009 The prediction of Russia's medium-term economic and political situation constitutes a source of uncertainty, as Russia's economic and political prospects affect not only Russian poultry imports, but also global poultry trade All forecasters predict that Brazil, the United States and Thailand will greatly benefit from the expected growth in poultry trade FAPRI expects Brazil's exports to be supported by a huge investment in broiler production in central and western Brazil These investments are driven by fiscal and subsidy policies and the availability of large quantities of cheap feed grains Brazil will also benefit from devaluation, which is expected to increase its share of poultry in the international market U.S poultry exports continue to benefit from a competitive production structure through vertical integration, high technology, low-cost feed products, and efficient transportation and storage equipment In addition, competition from some countries is expected to capture the share of growth in other major poultry export regions, such as the European Union Poultry prices are expected to rise slightly in the medium term, supported by strong demand However, the rapid growth of emerging low-cost exporting countries and poultry production (driven by moderate feed prices), further restructuring of the poultry production structure and further improvement of productivity will alleviate the pressure and trend of rising world poultry prices in the next seven years (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: