China's demand has not yet returned and does not support the sharp rise in Shanghai copper prices for the time being

U.
S.
stocks continued to rise strongly to new highs on Tuesday as U.
S.
data beat expectations and Congress will vote on a $500 billion stimulus package next week, and the one-month stalemate is expected to gradually land
.
The ISM manufacturing PMI index rose to 56 in August, much higher than 54 in the previous month, close to a two-year high, showing the momentum of accelerating economic recovery, the eurozone PMI index was 51.
7, down 0.
1 percentage points from the previous month, the CPI monthly rate fell 0.
4%, and the unemployment rate was 7.
9%, a slight increase of 0.
1 percentage points
from the previous month.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI index rose sharply from the previous month to a nine-year high of 53.
1, contrary to the slight decline in the official manufacturing index released yesterday, but in line with
growth in exports and end-consumer demand.
Overall, the resilience of the US economy has exceeded expectations, and it may also be due to the latest economic restart, which is in a period of rapid rebound after restarting, and then gradually enters a relatively moderate recovery state, EU and Federal Reserve officials have said that the overall economic recovery momentum has exceeded expectations, and strong growth
will be recorded in the third quarter.

The dollar index briefly fell below 92 yesterday, but strong US data pushed the dollar back.

The recent improvement in the US epidemic and strong economic performance have provided some support to the US dollar, but the US dollar remains weak due
to pressure from the Fed's long-term ultra-loose policy expectations and domestic political instability ahead of the election.
Strong economic recovery month-on-month, ultra-loose liquidity and weak US dollar formed strong macro bullishness have been strengthened
.

Base metals rose across the board, with London copper rising above $6,800 yesterday and closing at $
6,700.
LME inventories continued to decline, with registered warehouse receipts falling to 40,000 tonnes, spot premiums as high as $30 at one point, and low inventory crowding factors strongly supported
prices.
Domestic intraday rise, the price once rushed 53,000 yuan, traders rose to the top, scrap copper merchants reluctant to sell, reflecting the owner of the holder to watch the price increase, but the order did not improve, the refined waste price difference, low oxygen rod discount and other objective data did not significantly narrow, electrolytic copper and oxygen-free rod procurement was not positive, spot temporarily lacked real support
.

On the news, yesterday Chile reported a 6.
5-magnitude earthquake, which drove some speculation in the session, but in fact, Chile is in an earthquake zone, with frequent long-term seismic activity and strong earthquake resistance, and this magnitude earthquake basically has no impact
.
In addition, Chile announced that copper production in July decreased by 4.
6% year-on-year, and Peru's copper production in July decreased by 2% year-on-year, indicating that production has basically returned to normal, and the impact of the epidemic is not as great
as expected.
However, the epidemic in Peru has not been well controlled, and Peru has announced an extension of the state of emergency until October, and production will still be affected
by long-term inefficient mine operations in the future.
At present, the October shipping concentrate tender price is still below $50, which means that concentrate supply will remain tight in the fourth quarter, and production release will inevitably be limited
when refinery production is at a loss.

Overall, strong economic data and easy money have brought bullish sentiment, and also given sufficient reasons for demand growth in the copper peak season, LME low inventories and high premiums have brought realistic support, but Chinese demand has not yet returned, and end consumption does not support price increases
for the time being.
Combined with the technical pattern, London copper has reached a new high, getting rid of the sideways range of nearly two months, and may enter a slow upward trend
of oscillation.