China's demand for American soybeans is in shadow

Introduction: 1 Analysts predict that China's soybean import will slow down after March 20 2 China's soybean product demand will rise, and the import will be adjusted Chicago, Jan 18 (ostredow Jones): China's announcement of stricter testing standards for genetically modified products has caused waves in the international agricultural product market and has puzzled the industry for weeks On March 20, China will begin to implement the new measures for the implementation of the GM regulations As the date approaches, us analysts are concerned that the implementation of the new measures may slow us soybean exports to China An analyst with the U.S Department of agriculture's overseas Bureau of Agriculture said they are very concerned about this issue After China's implementation of the new management measures for genetically modified products, import reduction is likely But according to the analyst, it is too early to predict how much this potential reaction will affect trade Because the Chinese people have not figured out the real meaning of the new approach In an attempt to further clarify the implementation measures of the regulations on genetically modified products, a seminar will be held at the end of this week by relevant people and policy makers in China, but even the relevant regulatory bodies in China cannot fully explain the regulations For the United States, the concern is the large number of soybean businesses that have not yet been shipped, and many believe that once March 20 arrives, those businesses will disappear U.S soybean exports to China usually account for 50% of China's total soybean imports USDA forecasts that China will import 14 million tons of soybeans in 2001 / 02 That is to say, the U.S is expected to export about 7 million tons of soybeans to China this year According to USDA data, as of January 10, the total contract volume of US soybean export to China was about 3.2 million tons, of which 2.4 million tons had been shipped Theoretically, if the premise is correct (US soybeans account for 50% of China's imported soybeans) and the forecast remains unchanged (China imports 14 million tons of soybeans), the US will export 3.8 million tons of soybeans to China in this market year Anne Frick, an analyst at bacon securities in New York, pointed out that in the USDA report, there were 2.8 million tons of soybean export contracts with unknown destinations Part of that is likely to be China Frick also pointed out that China's demand for soybean meal and oil will increase in 2001 / 02 If the genetically modified regulations hinder the import of soybean, the supply of soybean in Chinese market will be in short supply and the crushing industry will be severely damaged According to Frick's analysis, the decrease in China's soybean imports will be offset by the increase in imports of other soybean products, especially soybean meal and palm oil, which can partially meet the market demand for soybean oil USDA forecasts that China's soybean meal demand in this market is 17.3 million tons, an increase of 2.4 million tons over the previous year, but the soybean meal import is sluggish, with a forecast value of only 300000 tons Meanwhile, soybean oil consumption reached 3.9 million tons, but the total import volume was only 400000 tons.