China's aging accelerates the wave of pension industry

2013-09-22 source: as China gradually enters an aging society, the working population will peak in 2015, the dependency ratio will turn around around in 2013, the demographic dividend will gradually disappear, and the potential economic growth rate will decline With the increase of dependency ratio, consumption rate will rise, and consumption will play a more important role in economic growth The development of pension industry is still in its infancy Although China has entered the stage of rapid aging, the development of related pension industry is still in its infancy, and there is a huge space for future development The new government attaches great importance to the development of the pension industry, especially the pension service industry With the acceleration of aging, the development of the elderly care industry will become one of the major themes of China's economic development in the future, bringing structural opportunities for industry segmentation and industry In terms of investment ideas, there are two ways: one is to benefit from the increase of the elderly population from the demand side, and the subdivided industries and companies that increase the demand for the elderly: elderly medical care, daily consumption related to the elderly, leisure and entertainment industries, as well as the infrastructure and services for the elderly, including the real estate for the elderly, funeral and funeral services, and the life insurance and asset management industries will have great development in the future Space, the relevant target is expected to benefit from it; second, for the supply side, the aging process has accelerated the upward process of labor cost, and the automation machinery industry characterized by machinery replacing labor is also expected to benefit from it Consumption will become the driving force of economic growth The working population is considered to be the group with high savings, while the aging population is the group with pure consumption As the proportion of working population reaches its peak and begins to decline, consumption will play a greater role in promoting economic growth Around 2013, China's dependency ratio will enter a turning point, and the corresponding consumption rate of residents in the future will continue to increase with the deepening of aging Combined with the prediction of the United Nations on the dependency ratio of China in the future, China's consumption rate will probably enter a continuous rising process after 2013 From the perspective of the contribution of consumption to economic growth, based on Japan's experience, with the decline of potential economic growth, the growth rate of consumption will also go down to a higher level Compared with capital formation, the contribution of consumption is more stable and has always been the most important driving force for the demand side of economic growth China's consumer contribution is also relatively stable We predict that consumption will play a more important role in economic growth with the increase of wage income and consumption rate On August 16, 2013, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council to determine the tasks and measures to deepen reform and accelerate the development of pension service industry At the meeting, governments at all levels should actively explore ways to promote the development of pension services, such as purchasing services Financial funds should focus on rural pension services, and play a good role in guiding social funds Speeding up the development of the elderly care service industry can not only carry forward the fine tradition of respecting the elderly of the Chinese nation, meet the multi-level needs of the elderly, improve the quality of life, but also make up for the "short board" in the development of the service industry, release the effective demand and create tens of millions of jobs In the future, China will establish and improve the pension service standard system, strengthen the formulation and revision of important pension service standards, and accelerate the implementation and promotion of pension service standards With the acceleration of aging, the development of the pension industry will become one of the major themes of China's economic development in the future, and will bring structural opportunities for industry segmentation and industry In terms of investment ideas, there are generally two directions One is to benefit from the increase of the elderly population from the demand side, and the subdivided industries and companies with the increase of the elderly demand: elderly medical care, daily consumption related to the elderly, leisure and entertainment industries, as well as the elderly infrastructure and services including the elderly real estate, funeral, life insurance, asset management and other industries will have huge future Development space, the relevant target is expected to benefit from it; second, for the supply side, the aging process has accelerated the upward process of labor cost, and the automation machinery industry characterized by machinery instead of labor has great development space in the future