China's accession to the WTO may promote the overall return of world crop prices

Introduction: on November 30, us time, CBOT market witnessed an amazing scene Driven by corn, almost all agricultural products prices rose sharply Corn, wheat and soybeans were up 4.3%, 3% and 1.8% respectively on the day of the recent contract Soybeans rose 8 cents / mil to 444.4 cents / mil in January, 10.4 cents / mil to 451.6 cents / mil in May, 1.1-3 US dollars / short ton for soybean meal and 0.26-0.41 US cents / pound for soybean oil Friday's Aodao News reported that China cancelled 1 million tons of corn exports (as part of its 3.5 million tons of corn sales plan in August), and then market participants said that China had actually purchased 500000 tons of American corn This news prompted the price of corn in CBOT market to soar and strengthened people's confidence in the demand of China market China's accession to the WTO has reason to believe that China's import door will be opened and its huge demand market will play a role in promoting world prices It should be said that U.S soybean exports are relatively strong Although nearly a quarter of the export share is occupied by South America, the average level of U.S exports in recent weeks is still over 1 million tons, which is higher than the same period last year The main driving force of strong export is the increase of consumption in China In South America, Brazil's soybean planting progress has recently reached 83%, ahead of the 5-year average of 81% Brazil's soybean production is expected to exceed last year's by 10% The U.S Department of agriculture predicts that Brazil's total soybean production will reach 41.5 million tons, while other agencies predict that Brazil's soybean production will reach 42.3 million tons It can be said that it is precisely because the total output of soybeans in South America will be close to the output of soybeans in the United States in the next year that the former US soybeans are indifferent to strong domestic demand and huge export Although there is pressure to increase production in South America, some market participants still believe that the bull market is often produced at a time like now when there is no hope The current situation is reminiscent of the bull market that began in 1994 in CBOT market, when China Re entered the US grain market on a large scale; even reminiscent of the bull market in 1970, it was because Russia entered the US grain market and imported wheat and cotton on a large scale The strong performance of CBOT market last weekend reminds me of the article translated by Mr Li Lei - "global wheat price sitting on the crater" and the description of tight supply of global vegetable oil market by German oil world magazine Perhaps after six years of long bear market, global agricultural prices do have the internal cause of reversal Like the recent dramatic rise in global base metal prices, the reversal (or sharp rebound) of the market sometimes does not need a very good reason, just a clever collision of a large time cycle and a small contingency And practical experience tells us that as long as the price rises, the market will always dig out the reason to explain it! For soybeans, based on the strong pressure of global supply, we can't believe that the market can recover to the last gap However, if the market really stands on the gap in the later stage, it must be some natural law that has played a role (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: