CCTV: Pig prices hit a new high in the third quarter? What are the possibilities?

According to the China Voice News Evening Peak, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitored 500 markets nationwide, and in the fifth week of April 2020, the price of live pigs per kilogram was 32.62 yuan, down 2% month-on-month, while the price of pork was 51.08 yuan per kilogram, down 2% month-on-month, which has been the decline in pork prices for several weeks EDW Meantime, on the other side of the ocean, Tyson Foods and Smithfield, two of the largest meat processing plants in the United States, are closing several plants because of an outbreak of new corona pneumonia U.S economists expect until the next few weeks that u.S farms will be slaughtered and disposed of at least 1.5 million pigs because they cannot deliver farmed pigs in time EDW "May Day" holiday pork average prices are still falling
EDW May 4 afternoon, the reporter came to beijing Haidian District, several supermarkets in front of the pork stalls, from time to time, the public to buy pork Asked about the fluctuations in meat prices, the public generally felt that the decline was somewhat, but not much EDW Citizen 1: Maybe a little down OK, can accept, also this price, not particularly expensive, can afford EDW Citizen 2: After rising from last year, it's down a bit, still more expensive than last year, and it's barely acceptable EDW's feelings about falling pig prices, butchers are more pronounced One shopkeeper said, "It's falling all the time." '51' a jin drop two dollars, before also slowly fell, can not be dropped at once Like the meat is only 29 pieces 9, the front tip 23 pieces, the back tip 24 pieces, also not expensive "
EDW According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring of the country's 500 markets, in the fifth week of April 2020, 32.62 yuan per kilogram of live pigs, down 2% month-on-month; In terms of wholesale prices, according to the latest week's data, despite the May Day holiday, the average price of pork in the country's wholesale agricultural market was Rmb43.79 per kilogram, still down about 1 per cent from last week EDW one of the factors that have changed the the continuous decline in the price of EDW pork is the gradual recovery of pig production capacity Wei Baigang, Director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that China's pig production situation continued to improve: "Pig production has overcome the new corona pneumonia outbreak during the once appeared piglets, feed transport supply and other difficulties, the end of the first quarter compared with the end of last year, the national pig storage column increased by more than 10 million head, an increase of 3.5%; "
EDW has also experienced significant volatility on the consumer side over the past few months Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Livestock and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that the main factors influencing the current situation of pork supply and demand have shifted from pig supply to pork consumption demand The outbreak of new crown pneumonia has had an impact on pork consumption, especially catering, group consumption and processing consumption, and the current demand for pork consumption has recovered somewhat, but it is still not strong EDW" new coronapneumonia outbreak, household consumption has seen a certain degree of increase, but food and beverage processing consumption appeared a relatively obvious decline According to our estimates, the overall demand for pork consumption fell by more than 40% in the first quarter Since March, the rate of population movement has gradually begun to recover, but consumption has recovered significantly more slowly than the flow of people According to the current Statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the overall revenue of catering in the first quarter fell by more than 40% year-on-year compared with the same period last year In the future, the influence factor of the market price of pork and pig has shifted from the supply of commercial pigs to the recovery of pork consumption demand Zhu Zengyong said EDW In addition, since this year, China has put 17 batches of central reserve frozen pork, the cumulative delivery volume reached 330,000 tons According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 951,000 tons of pork in the first quarter, an increase of 1.7 times The increase in reserves and imported meat has played a part in regulating the market The rise and fall in supply and consumption has driven the price of meat down continuously EDW but Zhu Zengyong also pointed out that after May, with the opening of schools, canteens, food and beverage consumption, pork prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in mid-to-late May Pork prices will not fall sharply this year, even as supply remains tight EDW challenges in the U.S pork supply chain have had a very limited impact on our country
and on the other hand, we have also noted that several large pork processing and abattoirs in the United States have closed due to the outbreak of new coronapneumonia The 15 pork processing plants in the U.S are reported to account for about 60 percent of the u.S meat processing, and the shutdown of any one plant would have a huge impact on the nation's meat supply chain Domingo Garcia, president of the American Federation of Latinos, called out that without action, there could be a rush for pork "Meat processing workers are also front-line workers who are as important as doctors and nurses, but not as well as they are protected, " he said If federal and state governments don't pay attention soon, americans will soon find that if snapping up paper towels is a big problem, soon everyone will have to grab pork and steak "
EDW According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 168,000 tons of pork from the United States in the first quarter, an increase of 6.4 times However, Zhu Zengyong pointed out that China's pork self-sufficiency rate of about 95%, the proportion of imports is very low, coupled with China's pork imports from multiple sources, the challenges facing the U.S pork supply chain have a very limited impact on China EDW", China's current pork import countries show a more diversified trend, the main sources of imports include the European Union, North America and South America Although the impact of the new coronapneumonia outbreak on U.S slaughtering and processing may lead to a degree of decline in global pork exports, the outbreak has had a relatively small impact on the slaughtering and processing of pork in the European Union and South America, including port logistics So to some extent, the U.S exports to China can be made up for the impact of the outbreak Zhu Zengyong said EDW the possibility of a new high in the third quarter is very small
EDW Although domestic pork prices are currently showing a downward trend, but the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Agriculture, animal husbandry and veterinary director Yang Zhenhai said recently, the second quarter of the domestic pig cycle may be the most difficult period, pork supply and demand also face a low production base, increased import uncertainty, consumption recovery and other three overlapping pressure Pork prices are expected to peak around September this year However, Mr Zhu said that even if the increase was limited: "By the third quarter, as consumer demand rose, pig prices will rise to a certain extent, and the supply of whole commodity pigs will increase accordingly in the third quarter." Therefore, in the third quarter, even if the pig price appears a certain degree of rise, the room for increase is not large, and the possibility of a new high is very small According to the Three-Year Action Plan to Accelerate the Recovery and Development of Pig Production, by the end of 2020, it will have basically returned to near-normal levels, which refers to the pig stock Because the whole growth cycle of pigs is relatively long, from the pig storage column to restore the recovery of the supply of commercial pigs for a period of time In other words, the price of pigs and pork will be close to normal levels by the second half of 2021 "
EDW