Carbon fiber ushered in a period of development opportunities

In recent years, under the background of "double carbon", China's carbon fiber production capacity has expanded
significantly.
Recently, relevant companies have issued a number of announcements involving the expansion of carbon fiber production, and more and more
companies have or will have a production capacity of 10,000 tons.
A number of research institutions recently pointed out that in recent years, China's carbon fiber production capacity has expanded significantly, the capacity utilization rate has increased rapidly, and the localization of substitution has accelerated, which is good news
for the promotion of China's "dual carbon" goal.
However, some market participants have warned that some low-end carbon fibers may face the risk of
overcapacity.

Leading enterprises accelerate their layout

Since the beginning of this year, a number of carbon fiber manufacturers in China have issued announcements
involving the expansion of carbon fiber production.
On December 8, Jilin Chemical Fiber announced that the second carbonization line of the company's 12,000 tons/year carbon fiber composite project was successfully
started.
Previously, the company's fully in-house manufacturing of precursors and a 35K large tow line for high-pressure gas cylinders were also put into operation
.
Zhongfu Shenying said that with the advancement of the Xining project, the company has the market supply capacity
of 10,000 tons of carbon fiber this year.
In October this year, Shanghai Petrochemical announced that China's first 10,000-ton 48K large tow carbon fiber project and the first domestic production line was put into operation in the carbon fiber industrial base of the enterprise, and produced qualified products, the product performance is comparable to the same level of products outside the United States, and the quality has reached the international advanced level
.

With the encouragement and support of the policy, many places across the country have begun to lay out the upstream and downstream industrial chain
of carbon fiber.
On September 19, Ordos held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony for the carbon fiber whole industry chain production base project, promoting the landing of 10,000 tons/year high-performance carbon fiber project, and the downstream layout of the carbon fiber industry will include a production base with an annual output of 100,000 hydrogen storage cylinders, an annual output of 30,000 hydrogen fuel heavy truck production bases and other projects, with an annual output value of more than 10 billion yuan
.

As China's carbon fiber projects continue to increase, production capacity is constantly increasing
.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that in recent years, driven by downstream demand, China's carbon fiber production capacity has expanded rapidly, and in 2021, China's carbon fiber operating capacity will be 63,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 75.
41%, accounting for 30.
5% of the global carbon fiber operating capacity, and the production capacity scale has jumped to the first
place in the world for the first time.

Market demand has further increased

Under the background of "dual carbon", carbon fiber is used in a large number of infrastructure related to new energy projects sought after by capital, which is the main reason for
the large expansion of carbon fiber production.

In the direction of hydrogen energy, with the accelerated development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the demand for hydrogen storage cylinders will continue to rise, boosting the use of carbon fiber
.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that based on the average carbon fiber consumption of hydrogen storage cylinders of 60~80 kg, it is expected that the carbon fiber consumption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be about 2534 tons in 2022, and it is expected that the carbon fiber consumption for this purpose will exceed 10,000 tons in 2025
.

Saio carbon fiber pointed out that from a global point of view, the demand for carbon fiber has increased from 76,500 tons in 2016 to 118,000 tons in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.
02%, and the global demand for carbon fiber is expected to reach 200,000 tons
in 2025.
From a domestic point of view, the demand for carbon fiber increased from 19,600 tons in 2016 to 62,400 tons in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 26.
06%, and the domestic demand for carbon fiber is expected to be 159,300 tons in 2025
.
CITIC Energy expects that the total global demand for carbon fiber will reach 260,000 tons in 2025, of which the consumption of wind, light and hydrogen alone is expected to reach 133,000 tons, accounting for 51% of the total global carbon fiber demand in 2025, and wind power is still the first force
to promote the growth of carbon fiber demand.

In addition, the import substitution policy has also further promoted the development of China's carbon fiber enterprises and enhanced local attention to the carbon fiber industry
.
In 2021, strengthening the R&D and application of carbon fiber and its composite materials was listed as a key development area
in the 14th Five-Year Plan.
In April this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to conquer the preparation technology
of large tows above 48K, high strength, high mode and high extension, T1100 grade and M65J grade.
At present, after long-term technology accumulation, China's carbon fiber leading enterprises are gradually breaking the foreign technology monopoly, the scale of production capacity continues to expand, domestic carbon fiber models have successfully covered T300 to T1100, M35 to M65, to achieve the benchmark of Toray's main carbon fiber models, some models tensile strength, tensile modulus, elongation and other performance indicators are even better
.

Be wary of low-end overcapacity

The "14th Five-Year Plan" pointed out that in addition to promoting technological innovation, it is also necessary to ensure the improvement
of carbon fiber product quality.
China Merchants Securities believes that China's domestic carbon fiber is in a period
of opportunity for import substitution.
It is worth noting that there are still many enterprises in the industry that have not yet mastered the core production technology of carbon fiber, and there are problems of poor stability and high cost of industrial production, and most of the products are distributed in low value-added fields
.
Therefore, continuous improvement of production technology level, stable quality and cost reduction are the keys to
achieving "from existing to excellent" domestic carbon fiber.

Carbon fiber is divided into two categories
: large tow and small tow.
Relevant people said that the production process of small tow is difficult and the price is high, mainly used in special fields such as military industry, aerospace, etc.
; Large tows are mainly used in the civil industry, and the current capacity expansion is concentrated on large tows
.
From the feedback of carbon fiber industry insiders, there is no problem
of overcapacity in domestic carbon fiber.

Jilin Chemical Fiber Securities Department said that large tow products have high requirements for cost performance and are difficult to achieve
without core technology.
However, some insiders said that the carbon fiber of T300 small tow applied in the field of wind power may have the risk
of overcapacity with the release of new production capacity.
High-end supply is seriously insufficient, low-end capacity is soon overcapacity, and mid-end prices are relatively high, which may become a portrayal of
the carbon fiber industry.