Calm view on the detailed rules of transgenic and its influence

Introduction: the GM rules were unexpectedly issued on the first trading day of the new year The bears were unprepared and the bulls were overjoyed The prices were sealed on the price limit board for several consecutive days This kind of fast and continuous upward attack had not been seen for a long time, but while the hot market was exciting, we might as well keep a calm and rational, so as not to be too far behind After reading the three methods of the detailed rules of genetically modified organisms, including the administrative measures for the safety of import and export of agricultural genetically modified organisms, the administrative measures for the labeling of agricultural genetically modified organisms and the administrative measures for the safety evaluation of agricultural genetically modified organisms, as well as the relevant administrative measures for the inspection and Quarantine of imported and exported grain and feed, the author preliminarily judges that the above administrative measures have been promulgated Application only increases the cost of imported soybeans, does not prohibit the import of soybeans, and cannot change the fundamental situation Reflected in the price of soybeans, the bottom price of soybeans will rise, but the top price is difficult to rise with the tide The top price will still be subject to greater restrictions, and the price of soybeans will fluctuate around the new balance point At the same time, the implementation of the detailed rules has also improved the national macro-control initiative of soybean import The detailed rules for genetically modified organisms stipulate that the safety certificate of agricultural genetically modified organisms must be obtained for the export of soybeans from overseas companies to China and the import of soybeans from domestic import and export companies to import soybeans, and the agricultural genetically modified organisms and their products must be marked according to the regulations In order to obtain the safety certificate issued by the national agricultural genetically modified organisms safety committee, the overseas company must provide the materials required by the Ministry of agriculture, including the test report on the safety of human beings, animals and plants, microorganisms and ecological environment issued by the technical testing institution entrusted by the Ministry of agriculture In order to obtain the safety certificate, the cost of soybean import will increase for the first time The main cost is the test cost of the Ministry of agriculture for the safety of soybean transgene It is not known how much the test cost will be Since the Ministry of agriculture can decide whether to approve the application of safety certificate within 9 months, there will be few companies to obtain the safety certificate before March 20 from now on, so the import will be significantly reduced after March 20 But imports by March 20 will be more difficult to control If the safety certificate cannot be obtained on March 20, according to the measures for the administration of inspection and Quarantine of entry and exit grain and feed, soybeans will not be able to reach the port, but can only wait at the anchor It is said that the cost of staying at the port for one day without unloading will increase by $10000, so the huge cost will force traders to act cautiously As the Ministry of agriculture has the initiative to issue GMOs safety certificates, it can control the issuing speed and quantity of safety certificates, so it can indirectly control the quantity of imported soybeans Through proper operation, while controlling the import, it can form favorable support for the domestic soybean industry, so as to protect the interests of farmers The implementation of genetically modified rules will affect every link of the whole soybean industry chain As the agricultural genetically modified organisms and their products will implement the marking system, the soybean crushing industry, the sale of soybean and its products will increase costs due to the marking system and the safety assurance system, which can be classified as the second increase in costs of soybean related enterprises As most of the soybeans in the United States and Argentina are genetically modified soybeans, while the domestic soybeans are non genetically modified soybeans, it should be understood that the genetically modified rules will play a significant role in raising the price of domestic soybeans In the face of the transgenic rules, the competitiveness of domestic soybeans will be improved The main performance is that if the soybean crusher uses domestic soybean, it will reduce the risk of soybean import, save the cost of ensuring soybean safety measures, save the cost of soybean oil and soybean meal identification, and if the domestic soybean is fully used, it can also save the cost of applying for agricultural gene transfer biosafety certificate From the perspective of consumption, the competitiveness of domestic soybeans will also be enhanced Because after the implementation of the marking system, some consumers will tend to consume non GM products for the sake of the safety of GM products Therefore, more people will tend to consume non GM soybean oil and other soybean products when the prices are the same or the differences are not big In turn, the popularity of non GMO soybean products will drive the consumption of non GMO soybean Thus, the demand of transgenic and non transgenic soybean will reach a new balance This new balance will also be beneficial to the "soybean revitalization plan" implemented by the Ministry of agriculture From the above analysis, it can be seen that the implementation of transgenic rules is a significant and long-term benefit for soybeans This benefit is more reflected in the promotion of the bottom price and the balance point price, as well as the difference between genetically modified and non genetically modified soybean prices, while the driving force for the breakthrough of the high point is less, because the international soybean supply and demand fundamentals have not fundamentally changed, and the international soybean market is still in a pattern of supply exceeding demand For the domestic soybean market, domestic soybean obviously can not meet the domestic demand If the import cost is too high, it will cause the dissatisfaction of consumers, soybean processors and related enterprises Therefore, soybean prices should be balanced at an appropriate level In my opinion, this appropriate level should ensure that the profit of farmers is slightly higher than the average profit of planting other crops (because the State implements the "soybean revitalization plan") In addition, if the price is too high, the state can also carry out macro-control through the security certificate, so that the price will not be too high Through the above analysis, it can be concluded that the soybean price will fluctuate up and down near the new equilibrium price (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: