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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestically: The head of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said it would curb the real estate bubble
by speeding up real estate tax legislation.
The cooling of the housing market will lead to a weakening of copper demand, because copper for real estate includes copper for construction and copper for home appliances
.
However, real estate regulation is something that has been going on since 2016, and the market has certain psychological expectations
for the weakening of real estate copper demand.
The weakening of copper demand for real estate is a gradual process, and China's infrastructure demand is still in place in 2017, so the market should not be too pessimistic
.
Abroad: Trump is considering delaying the implementation of the plan to commit to large-scale investment in infrastructure until 2018, although US infrastructure demand will not have a large impact on global copper demand changes in essence, but it will affect the psychological level
of investors.
Trump's postponement of the U.
S.
infrastructure plan led to the market's expectations for the growth of U.
S.
infrastructure copper demand in 2017, and pessimism enveloped the market, and copper prices plummeted
.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (February 20-February 24) the domestic copper price trend is weak, and the overall price center of gravity has shifted
down compared with last week.
Taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 48240 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 47200 yuan / ton, down 1040 yuan / ton, a decline of about
2.
16%.
Macro: Domestically, the factors of tight capital still restrict the market, considering the scale of TLF that gradually expires and has not been renewed, liquidity may still be in a state of convergence, Shibor has risen across the board for 7 consecutive days, and commodities such as ferrous products, chemicals, and base metals have generally fallen
recently.
Abroad, the overall performance of the US dollar this week is strong, and the pressure on copper prices is obvious
.
According to the minutes of the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting, a number of Fed policymakers said that if employment and inflation data are in line with expectations, it is appropriate to raise interest rates again, but given the uncertainty of the Trump administration's fiscal policy policy, there are still different voices within the Fed, and it is still necessary to wait for further clarity on the fiscal policy outlook
.
Market: On the whole, although the traditional consumption season of the copper market is gradually approaching, the transaction situation of the domestic copper market is still not satisfactory
.
As far as the situation within the week is concerned, this week's copper quotations are still in a state of discount across the board, due to the rebound of the plate at the beginning of the week, the willingness of holders to exchange cash at a high level is positive, speculators are low prices to absorb copper, and the downstream wait-and-see attitude is strong
.
However, with the correction of the market, holders tried to narrow the discount, the market oversupply was obvious, and the transaction did not see significant improvement
.
Weeks later, copper fell sharply by more than 1,000 yuan, downstream inquiries increased, buying interest increased, early speculators bought cash sellers profited for cash, the discount was first tightened and then loosened, copper prices were reduced by buyers under the premise of loose supply and diversified brands, and bargain hunting transactions improved
.
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