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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestically: The Central Economic Conference, which ended at the end of last week, set the tone
for China's economy next year.
This year's commodity trend is hot, mainly driven by three main drivers: supply-side reform, monetary easing and economic recovery
.
The Central Economic Conference emphasized that next year is a tough year for supply-side reform, and also pointed out that next year's monetary policy is stable and neutral, which is different from
this year's prudent monetary policy.
In general, the deleveraging released by this meeting, the signal to prevent and control financial risks and the recovery of market interest rates have a greater impact on the domestic financial market, including the commodity market, while industrial products are more directly affected due to the large increase in the previous period
.
Abroad: The dollar raised interest rates by 0.
25 again last week, although it was basically in line with market expectations, but the Fed's wording implied that interest rate hikes will be 3-4 times next year, which is a positive factor
for the dollar.
The dollar index has broken through the 102 high of late November, and the long-term target is already pointing to the 2001 high of 121.
02
.
Against the backdrop of a strong dollar, the wave of commodity speculation was restrained
.
Copper, as an iconic industrial product with strong financial attributes, will also be affected
by the strength of the US dollar.
Second, this week's market trend analysis
Second, this week's market trend analysis(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): This week (December 19-December 23) domestic copper prices continued to be weak adjustment market, taking the Yangtze River spot market as an example, according to cable network monitoring data, the average copper price at the beginning of the week was 45830 yuan / ton, and the average copper price on Friday was 44660 yuan / ton, down 1170 yuan / ton, down about 2.
55%.
Macro: This week, the US dollar and crude oil still have a certain impact
on the base metals market.
The final GDP of the United States in the third quarter was better than expected, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2014, and its final value was 3.
5%, compared with 3.
3% expected and 3.
2%
in the previous assessment.
The message is neutral
.
The Fed is now widely expected to raise interest rates again, and the dollar is likely to continue to appreciate against the backdrop of the inability of other countries to tighten monetary policy
.
But in the short term, the December rate hike has been priced in by the market and may briefly pull back
after the rate hike is cashed in.
The Fed's monetary policy decision-making meeting will be held on December 13-14, and whether the Fed will raise interest rates and how the market will interpret it will become the focus of market attention, coupled with the failure of the Italian constitutional referendum, which will increase the uncertainty of the peripheral economic environment
.
Market: The year-end factors have a more serious impact on the market, although copper prices fell this week, but under the influence of the sentiment of holders eager to exchange cash, the market supply is acceptable, imported brands are most, and smelters ship a small number of domestic brands, such as Daye and so on
.
During the week, cargo holders increased their shipments, and holders took the initiative to expand the discount to 280 yuan / ton - 150 yuan / ton, attracting some traders to enter the market to close low-priced sources
.
However, as the market stopped falling and stabilized, the downstream bargain buying increased slightly
.
The 25th is approaching, the annual long order is about to end, most state-owned enterprises have gradually entered the stage of closing and settlement, the monthly ticket is tight, the monthly ticket source quotation discount narrowed to 200-80 yuan / ton
.
The discount showed a trend of first rising and then suppressing, and the middleman settled the supplementary ticket mainly
after the week.
This week, downstream manufacturers bargained on demand procurement, due to the shortage of funds at the end of the year, the procurement demand was not strong, and most of them maintained a wait-and-see attitude
.
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