By 2040, the electric vehicle revolution will reduce the fossil fuel market by $21 trillion

Aurora Energy Research, a UK-based company, estimates that the adoption of electric vehicles will cut revenue by up to $21 trillion for the oil, gas and coal industries by 2040
.

On the oil side, Aurora Energy Research predicts that oil revenues could fall from $1.
5 trillion in 2016 to $1.
1 trillion
in 2040 due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and significant improvements in energy efficiency.
At the same time, oil prices could plummet to $
32 a barrel.

This is what could happen under the "Burnout" scenario developed by the research firm, which envisions a rapid increase in electric vehicle penetration and an equally rapid
increase in demand for electricity used by digital technologies due to the expansion of the Internet of Things.

In this case, it could be called the "end of the world" in terms of the oil industry, with Aurora Research projecting the number of electric vehicles seen on the road in 2040 at 540 million
.
Another study from 2016 shows that the total number of cars on the road in 2040 will be 2 billion, so electric vehicles will make up a considerable portion
of the total.

Due to the advent of electric vehicles, crude oil demand will peak before 2040, which is expected in the mid-2020s
.
By 2040, the price of oil will fall to $
32.
Due to the increasing use of low-carbon generation capacity to replace coal power plants, coal prices will fall further, with the selling price expected to fall to $
28.

In this case, it is certainly bad for the oil and coal industry
.
That's not the case for natural gas: natural gas will be the big winner under Aurora Energy Research's "Burnout" scenario, with revenues tripling in the field by 2040, and both supply and prices rising
as natural gas dominates markets released by coal and oil.

All in all, this study doesn't really tell us anything new, unless some numbers sound impressive, but in fact, the "Burnout" scenario isn't necessarily the most likely scenario
.

However, sales of electric vehicles have increased due to falling costs, mainly because of lower battery costs
.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects total EV sales of 1.
6 million this year, which may not be a lot, but it is a big improvement
from the hundreds of thousands of EVs sold four years ago.

In fact, the oil industry foresaw these predictions
.
It is no coincidence that Shell and BP, for example, are expanding into electric vehicle charging and battery technology
.
According to Aurora Research, even if the forecast is overly optimistic, it is worth preparing for a green future
.