By 2020, the total market capacity of out of hospital prescription drugs will exceed 400 billion yuan

Source: Cypress blue 2016-12-05 with the gradual promotion of medical separation in the national medical reform, the market outside the hospital of prescription drugs has developed rapidly in recent years in China, and has gradually become a new market blue ocean and a new value highland, attracting more and more attention from pharmaceutical enterprises On December 1, Beijing baolaitong Data Research Institute issued the 2016 Research Report on the off hospital market of Chinese prescription drugs (hereinafter referred to as the "report") which pointed out that the growth of drug market continued to slow down, and the growth of prescription drug market in county and grass-roots market was a new force With the continuous promotion of relevant policies on the separation of drugs, the distribution channels of prescription drugs will be greatly changed Medical e-commerce and the emerging DTP Model have also become the hot spot of the industry, with rapid growth The report predicts that by 2020, the total market capacity of out of hospital prescription drugs will exceed 400 billion yuan ▌ the general control of medical insurance is stricter, and the growth of hospital market is weak According to the report, the growth rate of the total scale of China's drug market (excluding medicinal materials) slowed down significantly in 2016, with the total scale of about 1477.4 billion yuan According to the report, in the future, the general control of medical insurance will be more strict, the bidding situation will be severe, the quality consistency evaluation or price will eliminate most varieties, the restrictions of rational drug use on auxiliary drugs and anti infective drugs, the drug proportion will be reduced, and the national price negotiation for patent drugs will be implemented, all of which limit the increase of the scale of the pharmaceutical market However, driven by the favorable expansion of the scope of health care, the listing of new products, the continuous improvement and improvement of medical infrastructure and services, the rapid incidence rate of chronic diseases, the high level of value of drug at provincial / municipal level, and the rise of private investment and health care industry, the scale of the pharmaceutical market will still maintain growth, but the growth rate will continue to slow down Influenced by multiple policy factors, the county and grass-roots markets are growing into the new force of the growth of prescription drug market, while the city level hospital terminal shows a weak growth trend Although the retail pharmacy terminal is relatively small, it is supported by the prescription outflow policy, and the market develops rapidly With the improvement of the basic medical system and the promotion of the hierarchical diagnosis and treatment policy, the growth rate of the community health center as a prescription drug sales has accelerated, and the growth rate of each major category is higher than that of the hospital terminal ▌ important changes have taken place in the distribution channels of prescription drugs According to the report, in terms of the proportion of prescription drugs and over-the-counter drugs, the proportion of prescription drugs has been around 85%, and the market scale of prescription drugs is expected to reach 160000000000 billion in 2020 However, with the continuous promotion of the policy of medicine separation, the distribution channels of prescription drugs will change a lot The introduction of a series of documents directly promoted the emergence of this change In 2014, the notice on implementing the key tasks of medical reform in 2014 to improve the service level and efficiency of drug circulation required to promote the reform in various forms, including retail drugstores undertaking outpatient drugstore services and other professional services of medical institutions; in 2016, the deepening of medical and health system reform 2016 Key tasks of the year pointed out that hospitals are forbidden to restrict the outflow of prescriptions, and patients can choose to purchase drugs in outpatient pharmacies or retail pharmacies with prescriptions It is expected that, driven by the policy of prescription outflow, the retail terminal will partially undertake the amount of hospital terminal drug prescriptions squeezed by the policy, and the development of grass-roots terminals and online pharmacies will also share part of the outflow of prescription drugs Under the influence of the new deal No.7 and No.70, the public hospitals are more strict in the way of drug procurement Under the pressure of bidding, the price of drugs keeps decreasing In addition, policies such as reducing the proportion of drugs and controlling the growth rate of medical expenses have severely crushed the living space of prescription drugs in the hospital At the same time, in recent years, all provinces have begun to control the use of auxiliary drugs in different degrees, which further increases the sales pressure of prescription drugs in hospitals, and also forces prescription drug companies to seek out out out out of hospital channels From the perspective of current situation, out of hospital prescription drugs are mainly concentrated in the retail market, and the sales scale of prescription drugs in the retail market shows a continuous growth trend It is estimated that the sales volume of prescription drugs in the retail market will reach 118.9 billion yuan in 2016 ▌ DTP and pharmaceutical e-commerce grow significantly, while DTP mode, as the current industry hot spot, grows significantly DTP mode is a marketing mode directly facing consumers Its essence is one-to-one service built on the professional service platform of drugstores According to the statistics of baolaitong Data Research Institute, at present, the DTP scale is about 8 billion yuan in 2015, and it is expected to achieve a sales scale of 10.5 billion yuan in 2016 According to the report, the development of DTP pharmacy will go through three stages: new special drugs, slow disease drugs and full range prescription drugs According to the policy requirements, the proportion of public hospital drugs will be reduced from 40% to 30%, which will lead to more than 1000 in the industry It is estimated that about 80% of the billion volume prescription drugs will flow out of the hospital The national policy requires that the target of drug proportion should be achieved in 2017 Considering the implementation strength and regional differences of the hospital, it is expected that the capacity of out of hospital prescription drugs will be released by the end of 2020 at the latest, and the market size of DTP is expected to reach 30 billion yuan by 2020 In the past few years, with the increase of Internet penetration rate and online shopping penetration rate, China's drug e-commerce has seen explosive growth, from 400 million yuan in 2011 to 13.3 billion yuan in 2015 However, compared with foreign e-commerce, the sales volume still lags significantly: 30% of drugs sold online in the United States and only 0.35% of drugs sold online in China The core of the difference lies in the difference of medical environment between the two countries In China, 85% of prescription drugs can't be sold online, so it's difficult to get prescriptions online, and online medical insurance can't pay In the United States, there are prescriptions online, and medical insurance can pay As one of the means to further reduce medical expenses, e-commerce is encouraged by medical insurance control fees, and it has developed rapidly among the slow sick Chronic disease patients are the target group of e-commerce, and Chinese chronic disease patients are the target group of e-commerce The large space of Chinese chronic disease drugs provides a high base for e-commerce It is predicted that the potential space of China's drug e-commerce will also be determined by the chronic disease population China's huge number of chronic disease patients and chronic disease medication base provide a good foundation for the development of e-commerce.