Butanone prices climb to 10-year high

Since March, the butanone market has performed brilliantly.
After a short period of sideways consolidation in the first ten days, the upward mode has been restarted in the mid to late ten days
.

limited cost support

According to the statistics of the business society, the average market price of butanone on March 25 was about 14,800 yuan, and it rose by 1,066.

In mid-March, the international crude oil market surged and then pulled back, superimposed on the spread of domestic epidemics in many places, which restricted logistics, transportation and demand, aggravating bearish sentiment in the market, and the overall performance of the chemical market was weak.
Prices also fell significantly
.

From March 9 to 16, the price of WTI crude oil fell from US$123.
7/barrel to US$96.
44/barrel, a drop of 22.
04%
.

　　Export market is improving

　　"The price increase of butanone is mainly driven by the favorable export market
.

　　Yang Guangzhi, an analyst at Jinlianchuang Chemical, also believes that exports are improving and supporting the butanone market
.

　　The reason for the good export market of butanone, on the one hand, is the planned shutdown of two butanone plants in Japan, and the continuous rise in the prices of external disks and crude oil has driven the market mentality and promoted the surge in foreign demand, especially the purchase of butanone in China in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia.
increase rapidly
.

　　"Recently, the high level of the international butanone market and the existing supply gap are good for domestic butanone exports, and the volume of foreign trade orders has increased significantly, which has led to a reduction in the supply of domestic sources by manufacturers, thus driving up domestic market prices
.

　　emergency impact

　　Recently, the earthquake near Fukushima, Japan has caused concern in the industry.
At the same time, the spread of the domestic epidemic has hindered transportation capacity and relatively weak domestic demand.
Several unexpected factors have made butanone manufacturers eager to ease the pressure on domestic demand through foreign trade exports
.

　　On March 16, a magnitude 7.
3 earthquake occurred in the waters of Fukushima Prefecture, Japan.
The industry expects that the butanone plant may have a shutdown plan, and the shrinking international supply will lead to substantial positives and boost the purchase of butanone in China
.
Eleven years ago, a strong earthquake with a magnitude of 8.
8 occurred on the coast of northeastern Japan, which severely damaged the 170,000-ton/year butanone plant in Japan's Maruzen.
As a result, a large number of export orders poured into China, driving the price of butanone soaring
.
Although the earthquake in Japan has not yet been heard to have a substantial impact on the butanone plant, it has also triggered concerns in the industry, or pushed up the price of butanone in the market outlook
.

　　The domestic butanone supply and demand are dominated by negative factors
.
According to Yang Guangzhi, the recent domestic epidemic has recurred at multiple points, which will have a certain impact on the transport capacity of butanone.
The downstream demand is also relatively light, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high
.
However, due to the current considerable profits and high production enthusiasm of production enterprises, the operating rate of the industry remains high
.
In addition, the current domestic price of butanone has risen to a high level in the past 10 years, which is significantly higher than that of related alternative products.
The downstream has chosen alternative products out of cost considerations
.

　　However, at present, there is no sign of easing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
There is a supply gap in the European butanone market.
Its price has risen sharply and has formed a large price difference with the domestic market.
There is a certain arbitrage space
.

　　On the whole, under the current situation of high domestic demand pressure and high operating rate of the industry, production enterprises are eager to ease domestic supply pressure through foreign trade exports, which will benefit the export market
.
It is expected that the export of butanone will remain at a high level in the short term, which will further support the domestic market
.