Butadiene: "Golden Nine" may be insufficient in fineness

With the continuous release of new capacity and the difficulty in boosting downstream demand, the butadiene market is showing signs of fatigue

Industry insiders believe that although the "Golden Nine" peak season has arrived, the contradiction between supply and demand is difficult to improve in the short term.

Supply increased significantly

Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Research Institute of Chemical Industry, said that in the last week of August, domestic butadiene manufacturers' quotations fell during the consolidation

It is understood that in the third quarter, as the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical, Shandong Luqing Petrochemical and Gulei Petrochemical and other facilities are put into operation one after another, China's butadiene industry will usher in a new round of capacity increase

Regarding the market outlook, traders all said that with the successive release of new production capacity, it is expected that the domestic butadiene supply will increase significantly in September

Raw material support weakened

From the perspective of butadiene raw material naphtha, in late August, the Shandong naphtha market fluctuated due to the large fluctuations in international crude oil

Up to now, Shandong's independent refinery's atmospheric and vacuum capacity utilization rate is 67.

　　From an external perspective, the Asian naphtha market is volatile and affected by the sharp rise and fall of international crude oil.

　　From the perspective of monetary policy, the market is calling for the Fed to reduce the QE in advance, and it will land in September as soon as possible.

　　"The crude oil market and terminal demand are still dominated by bad news.

　　Hard to boost demand

　　From the downstream point of view, the styrene-butadiene rubber market was weak and fluctuating.

　　The overall operation of the styrene butadiene rubber plant has not changed much

　　In terms of butadiene rubber, there are limited equipment changes, the overall downstream demand is poor, the enthusiasm for purchasing butadiene rubber spot is low, and the spot volume on the market is small, and the transaction volume is not much

　　From the perspective of the downstream tire industry, due to the severe environmental supervision situation and the high price of raw materials, the cost pressure of production enterprises is relatively high, and some factories are forced to reduce and suspend production

　　On the whole, the downstream demand is weak, and it is difficult to drive the butadiene market higher, and the "Golden Nine" may not be of sufficient quality