Butadiene: first rise and then suppress 60%.

In 2022, the butadiene market will show a trend
of rising first and then falling.
At the beginning of the year, the price of butadiene fluctuated upward from 4325 yuan (ton price, the same below), and in early June, it hit a high point of 12,800 yuan in the year and began to decline at a high level, closing at 7241 yuan
at the end of the year.
Throughout the year, the butadiene market as a whole showed an upward trend, with an increase of nearly 63%, ranking at the forefront
of the list of gainers.

The trend of the whole year first rose and then declined

In 2022, the butadiene market will be dominated for more than half a year, and the second half of the year will be dominated by a shock pullback, but the average price during the year is still in the five-year high range
.

In the first half of the year, butadiene prices jumped from a low of 4,325 yuan to a high of 11,250 yuan in March, and then rose again after two months of high volatility, hitting a yearly high of 12,800 yuan
in early June.

"The reason for the continuous increase in butadiene prices in the first half of the year is the increase in the overall utilization rate of downstream plants and the increase
in butadiene consumption.
In addition, affected by the high price of crude oil, the decline in the operating rate of the cracking plant has led to a decrease
in the supply of butadiene at home and abroad.
At the same time, the export of some domestic sources has also helped the price of butadiene rise
.
Longzhong information analyst Wang Chunyan analyzed
.

However, with the sharp rise in butadiene prices, most domestic downstream industries began to reduce production loads, and the demand for butadiene has decreased
.
At the same time, the weakening of foreign terminal demand and the decrease in enthusiasm for butadiene imports have led to a decline in China's butadiene exports
.
Therefore, the domestic butadiene market in July ~ August is well supplied, and the price has been falling
.

Since then, although the "Golden Nine" was supported by the phased tight supply, butadiene prices rebounded, but the actual benefit had limited
boost to the market.
In addition, from the end of the third quarter, the external price fell significantly, and the import window opened, resulting in a more sufficient supply of domestic butadiene, and the price continued to decline
.
Near the end of the year, due to the supply increase is not as expected, the butadiene market deduced the small tail market, the price rose 600~800 yuan, and finally ended at 7241 yuan
.

Capacity release is less than expected

In 2022, affected by the external economic environment and the decline in industrial prosperity, the commissioning time of some new devices will be delayed, and the new butadiene production capacity will be significantly less than expected, and the industry capacity growth rate will only be about
7.
34%.

According to Zhang Xiuping, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, in the first half of 2022, most of the pre-production units of butadiene were delayed, and only in early January was the new 160,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit built by Zhenhai Refining and Chemical successfully started up and produced qualified products
.

In the second half of the year, butadiene production equipment has 3 sets
.
The 70,000 tons/year butadiene plant of Lianyungang Petrochemical was put into operation
in mid-July.
In August, Qi Xiang Tengda 200,000 tons/year butadiene extraction unit was completed and put into operation; Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II Project 3#250,000 tons/year butadiene plant put into operation, superimposed on the production capacity of 1# and 2# units, the total production capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical Butadiene reached 700,000 tons/year, ranking first in China, accounting for 11.
97%
of the total domestic butadiene production capacity.

In 2022, with the increase of domestic butadiene production capacity, imports will shrink
.
In 2022, butadiene imports are expected to decrease by 39.
61%
compared with 2021.
The reduction of production and sales pressure in the domestic market has led to an overall increase in butadiene prices
.

Demand can form support

In addition to the less than expected release of production capacity, another important factor in the rise in butadiene prices in 2022 is that there are more new downstream production capacity, which drives the increase
in demand.

From the perspective of the rubber industry, in 2022, the production speed of new and expanded cis-butadiene rubber projects will be significantly accelerated
.
In the third quarter, Qi Xiang Tengda's 40,000 tons/year cis-butadiene rubber project was fully connected and produced qualified products
.
In addition, Zhejiang Transfar and Shandong Yihua have cis-butadiene rubber plants put into operation, and the total new production capacity above is 190,000 tons per year
.

In addition, with the acceleration of the tire labeling process, the production capacity of dissolved styrene-butadiene rubber has also entered an expansion period
.
Dushanzi Petrochemical's second phase 60,000 tons/year dissolved polystyrene-butadiene rubber production line was put into operation, and Zhejiang Petrochemical's 60,000 tons/year dissolved polystyrene-butadiene rubber plant also began trial operation
at the end of the year.

From the perspective of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene copolymer (ABS) industry, LG Huizhou, Liaoning Jinfa and Shandong Lihuayi have all put on new production capacity, with a total new production capacity of 550,000 tons per year
.
With the increase of production capacity and output of the ABS industry, its consumption of butadiene has also increased significantly, ranking third in the downstream of butadiene, and the gap between consumption and styrene-butadiene rubber industry has narrowed
.

Annual data shows that in 2022, the main downstream consumption of butadiene will be 3.
2442 million tons, an increase of 6.
88%
over 2021.
Therefore, the phased tightening of supply and demand injects benefits into the butadiene market
.

He Junsong, a sales staff member of Jilin Petrochemical, believes that with the breakthrough of China's independent development of butadiene adiponitrile production technology, whether it is a new project or a research project, the butadiene process
is invariably adopted.
Therefore, the domestic consumption of butadiene continues to increase, which in turn supports the market and helps butadiene deliver a good report card
in 2022.