Business agency: market analysis and future forecast of honeysuckle in 2015

I The price trend chart of honeysuckle market according to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic honeysuckle fell in 2015, and it was reported as 101.5 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year and 91.60 yuan / kg at the end of the year This year, the overall market of honeysuckle fell by 9.75% From the chart of honeysuckle trend in the whole year above, we can see that the price trend can be divided into three stages: the first stage (January April) is slow downward, the second stage (may July) is straight downward, and the third stage (August December) is slow downward II In the first stage of market analysis (January April), at the beginning of 2015, the quantity of honeysuckle was sufficient, and the cost of supply was high, and the market was weak There were few businesses from the origin to organize the supply, and the market purchase and sales were flat The area of the product on the ground was still large, and the market was stable It will still run in a downturn In April, honeysuckle is in a new stage of production, and some traders come to the countryside to purchase the product As the number of artificial planting increases in recent years, the picking volume will increase in 2015, so the price of its goods will continue to fall At present, the price of honeysuckle will be lower The selling price of wild products is 35-41 yuan / kg, the selling price of family products is 30-39 yuan / kg, the winter flowers are not moving very much, and the transaction price of wild products is stable at 75-91 yuan / kg In the second stage (May to July), the supply of honeysuckle moved generally, and the price decreased slightly The first crop of honeysuckle in Hebei Province has come to an end At present, there are many poplar cotton and willow catkins in this season, resulting in poor quality of the first crop, poor export situation of the source of goods, and difficulty in moving the market source of goods The operators mostly adopt the way of selling and ordering to maintain their business The overall price tends to decline In addition, the introduction of the new pharmacopoeia, GSP, GMP certification and other effects, The price of honeysuckle fell continuously under the premise of cautious purchasing and double negative In the third stage (August December), the price of honeysuckle declined slightly, and most farmers' willingness to sell goods was not strong Because the cost price of honeysuckle was not low in 2015, the profit of middlemen decreased At present, there is a large amount of inventory in the production area, and the price recovery is not high Honeysuckle is affected by the price rise of blue and white in the previous year Now, the quantity of goods is sufficient, the cost of goods is high, and the market is weak At the same time, there are a lot of honeysuckle in the market The shape of honeysuckle is similar to that of honeysuckle, but its chemical composition is significantly different The florescence of Lonicera japonica is longer, its yield is higher, and its price is lower than that of honeysuckle 3 Yue Jiayin, an analyst of honeysuckle of Houshi prediction business cooperative agricultural Deputy Branch, believes that the market of honeysuckle in 2015 has a certain guarantee In terms of production area, except for the production area in Hunan Province, the inventory of other two production areas was not abundant in 2015, and the production of production area in 2015 was reduced compared with that in previous years, although the range was not large, but the production reduction momentum has been shown With the continuous growth of labor cost, some growers abandoned the seeds, and the production in 2016 could not be increased again Although the stock in the market is still abundant and the supply of goods is relatively flat at present, with the continuous digestion of shanyinhua stock in the future, the market is expected to improve There is no contradiction between supply and demand for honeysuckle in a short period of time, and the stock is still abundant In addition, the overall drug market is weak, the purchasing power is not strong, and the popularity is low, which restricts the emergence of business opportunities It is understood that the planting area in the production area has formed a scale If the production volume in recent years is not unexpected, there will be no big deviation in the reduction degree In the current period, it is only supported by the picking cost and the increase of the consumption, so it is difficult for the price to fall back to the previous low price Therefore, the unknown market of honeysuckle in the future will continue for some time, but with the consumption of inventory, the price of honeysuckle in 2016 is expected to stop falling and recover, and the price will fluctuate between 75-90 yuan / kg Contact information of Jinyinhua analyst: Tel: 024-83959283, QQ: 2462941877