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Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rebounded
slightly.
Aluminum ingot spot premium fell back to around 100, Shanghai aluminum fell below the 40-day line after the double top right shoulder broke down, will continue to seek support
.
Social inventories of aluminum ingots rebounded by 15,000 tons on Monday, and the inflection point of inventories was close to confirmation
as consumption weakened seasonally.
However, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the warehouse receipt in the last period is only 65,000 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum Back structure is still deep, and the bulls still have a chance to counterattack, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish and wait and see
for the time being.
Macro aspect: the new strain of the virus found in the UK has gone out of control and spread 70% faster, which has led to the epidemic getting out of control in the UK, London and other places have been locked, and the market is pessimistic about the out-of-control epidemic in Europe
.
The Brexit trade deal was reached, worth $909 billion, and two major global uncertainties are weakening
.
On the supply side: China's average daily production of primary aluminum in November reached a record high
.
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's primary aluminum production in November increased from a year earlier, with average daily production hitting a record high, and more smelting capacity came online
amid strong demand and high aluminum prices.
Demand side: Domestic terminal demand for automobiles, photovoltaics and household appliances is strong
.
In terms of inventory: the previous inventory accumulated 12,532 tons to 212,700 tons last week, and the warehouse receipts in the previous period increased by 398 tons to 65,281 tons
.
According to the data on December 28, the accumulation of social stocks is 07,000 tons, which is 600,000 tons
, compared with the statistics on December 24.
Overall, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is still at a low level, which still supports the price
.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, alumina prices still maintain a low level of about 2300 yuan, the current electrolytic aluminum industry profits by the decline in aluminum prices narrowed to about 2500 yuan, from a historical point of view production profits are still in a high position, and high profits have continued for a long time
.
On the demand side, China's downstream automotive and infrastructure data performed strongly in November, indicating that China's economy maintained its recovery momentum and domestic market demand performed better
.
In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of aluminum enterprise investment and production, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, the new production capacity in December further released to form a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.
