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Capital investment macro strategists predict that Brent crude oil prices will reach a peak of around US$80/barrel in the third quarter, and WTI crude oil will reach around US$77/barrel, and then fall back in the fourth quarter and 2022
.
Oil supply will remain restricted for some time
.
The current OPEC production cuts and the fact that demand is still sluggish means that, at least in the next few months, the implementation rate of production cuts in oil-producing countries, especially OPEC countries, may remain at a high level
.
Starting from the second quarter, with the lifting of the quarantine measures, demand will be released
.
The extensive policy support provided by governments and central banks will further boost the value of risky assets such as oil
.
The supply and demand gap in the global oil market in the first half of this year will be slightly higher than our expectation, which will further boost oil prices
.
Nevertheless, we still believe that as demand fades and supply recovers, Brent crude oil prices will fall to $70/barrel at the end of 2021, to $60/barrel at the end of 2022, and WTI crude oil prices will fall to $67/barrel respectively.
Barrels and 57 dollars per barrel
.