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Last year, when Novo Nordisk launched the diet drug Wegovy, the company hired American rapper and actress Queen Ratifah
Latifah) to launch an awareness campaign aimed at removing the stigma
that often surrounds obesity treatment.
A year on, there is little sign that the public is reluctant to accept the drug
.
A late-stage clinical trial showed that the drug reduced the average body weight of patients by 15%.
However, the Danish company is burdened
by its success.
Surging demand and production constraints have led to a general shortage
in Wegovy.
The drug, whose generic name is Semaglutide, is an appetite suppressant drug that was forced to temporarily halt marketing and rethink its production strategy
due to insufficient supply.
It also presents an opportunity for Eli Lilly, Amgen and several biotech companies that are developing similar weight-loss drugs to try to catch up
in this space.
Analysts predict that the market could be worth $50 billion
a year by 2030.
Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Fruergaard
Jørgensen told the Financial Times that this blowout launch, with a more or less vertical absorption curve, changes the robustness of dealing with the
problem.
He admitted that Novo Nordisk did not anticipate the huge demand for Wegovy, based on a forecast
based on slower sales growth of the company's early diet drug Saxenda.
Saxenda helps patients lose about 5% of their body weight
.
Jørgensen revealed that the company aims to address production issues by the end of the year, allowing it to roll out Wegovy in the U.
S.
and launch Wegovy
in several European countries.
1 A rising $50 billion variety
1 A rising $50 billion varietyObesity affects an estimated 650 million people
worldwide.
The rush by drug companies to introduce a new generation of obesity drugs has caused unease among some critics, who warn that the drugs could be abused and have side effects
.
But most health experts say the drugs should have a very positive effect
on obese patients.
Obesity has been linked
to health problems such as heart disease, stroke, kidney disease, and high blood pressure.
But a report by the U.
S.
Government Accountability Office (GAO) shows that between 2012 and 2016, less than 1 percent of the estimated 71 million obese adults in the United States took diet pills
.
Doctors say obesity is increasingly seen as a disease that needs to be treated, rather than some sort of moral bankruptcy or laziness, in part because of these new drugs
.
"Right now, we're seeing a very high demand for semaglutide, and I have patients who don't have access to the drug
.
" Fatima Stanford, an obesity medicine specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston
Stanford said, "There needs to be a focus on increasing supply
.
”
Analysts predict that diet pills will be the next blockbuster class of drugs, equivalent to the revolution
in treating high blood pressure in the 80s of the 20th century.
Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Purcell
Purcell said that under conservative pricing assumptions, global sales of obesity-related products could exceed $50 billion
by 2030.
This would lift obesity from the $2.
4 billion category to the top 12 treatment areas
in terms of global spending.
A report co-authored by Purcell, Unlocking the Obesity Challenge: A $50 Billion and More Market, predicts that the market will be driven by several factors: greater awareness that obesity drugs can save lives; removal of supply constraints; the role of social media in promoting medicines; and a greater focus on the role of
weight loss in addressing diabetes.
2 MNC enters, Matthew effect obvious?
2 MNC enters, Matthew effect obvious?The list price for a four-week Wegovy treatment is $1,349 per month, though Medicare patients pay less
.
Considering that patients must take the drug for life to ensure they don't regain weight, diet pills should generate long-term, stable revenue
for drugmakers, analysts say.
Morgan Stanley predicts that Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly will capture about 40 percent of the market as they jointly develop and launch up to 12 diet pills
currently in development.
Several other biotech companies, such as Amgen, Altimmune, Zealand
Pharma, Hanmi, Regor Therapeutics, Sciwind Biosciences, and vTv
Therapeutics is in the early stages
of drug development.
In October, the FDA granted Lilly fast-track certification for the diet drug Tirzepatide
.
The company expects the move to hopefully get it approved
next year.
In May, Eli Lilly successfully launched a formula for the drug, which it named Mounjaro for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, with four doses per week and a list price of $
974.
SVB Securities predicts that when Tirzeepatide is approved for the treatment of obesity, it will face huge demand and warns that it could face a supply crunch
similar to Wegovy's.
The investment bank believes that by 2030, Tirzepatide's annual sales will reach about $26 billion, of which about one-third will be used to treat diabetes and two-thirds
to treat obesity.
Tirzepatide and Wegovy belong to a class of drugs known as glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonists, which were originally developed
to help control blood sugar levels in people with diabetes.
These drugs target areas of the brain that regulate appetite, and subcutaneous injections once a week can cause patients to lose significant weight
.
Lilly CEO David Rex
Ricks said Mounjaro will be a huge opportunity
for the company.
His judgment was based on the successful launch of this drug to treat diabetes, and its potential
as a diet drug.
"We've never seen a drug lose more than 20% weight before, which makes us a unique category, similar to gastric bypass surgery
.
" Rex added
.
In April, Eli Lilly reported that in a late-stage clinical trial, low doses of Mounjaro reduced weight by an average of 15 percent, while high-dose Mounjaro reduced weight loss by an average of 22.
5 percent
.
In another trial funded by Novo Nordisk, patients taking Wegovy lost an average of about 15 percent of their body weight, with one-third of those patients losing more than
20 percent of their body weight.
3 Leapfrogging: Drug Abuse and the Payment Conundrum
3 Leapfrogging: Drug Abuse and the Payment ConundrumCelebrity support on social media has become a driver of demand for diet pills, a trend that some doctors warn is intensifying
Wegovy is in tight supply and can lead to abuse
.
In October, Tesla founder Elon Musk
Musk attributed his weight loss to fasting and Wegovy, while weight loss strategies using Novo Nordisk Ozempic, which was only approved for diabetes treatment and at lower doses, went viral
on TikTok.
Robert Kushner, a professor at Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine
"This is a concern
for all drugs that are hyped by society and misinterpreted as curatives," Kushner said.
They are not approved for slimming or simply for weight loss
.
”
Kushner believes that these prescription drugs need to be monitored
for tolerability and potential side effects.
But he said their effectiveness is driving a "paradigm shift"
in the treatment of obesity by doctors.
In the United States, diet pills have a tortuous history
.
The FDA has previously revoked the approval
of several drugs, such as fenfluramine and dexfenfluramine, due to potentially life-threatening side effects.
The results showed that Wegovy and Tirzeepatide could cause nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, constipation and stomach pain
.
Both drugs have a warning that they may increase the risk of thyroid cancer, although so far this has only been found in animal studies
.
Beverly Don, an endocrinologist and assistant professor of clinical medicine at Weill Cornell Medical School
Tchang said regulatory oversight was much
better than when the previous generation of diet pills was approved in the '60s.
"Because of the regulations, our security situation is
better.
" Tang said some older doctors are still reluctant to prescribe diet pills for obese patients, in part because of concerns about side effects
from previous medications.
But she said the main obstacle to adoption was the reluctance of private and public insurance companies to pay for it
.
Jørgensen said Novo Nordisk still needs to have conversations with government payers in the U.
S.
and Europe about how obesity can't always be solved through diet and exercise, and how these drugs can save the healthcare system money
.
In the U.
S.
, Medicare doesn't cover obesity treatment, but Jørgensen believes, he thinks, that will change
as people who take these drugs retire and expect to stay covered.
"If you have a long career and pay taxes, you want to be able to enjoy that treatment
.
So I think it's just a matter of
time.
Jorgensen finally said
.
References:
References: References:
1.
Big Pharma targets $50bn obesity drugs market as demand booms； Financial
Times
Big Pharma targets $50bn obesity drugs market as demand booms； Financial Times
