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At the end of 2021, the market was extremely pessimistic about the biotech industry expectations:
Although the entire industry has a harsh winter, the harder thing is yet to come
.
Indeed, 2022 is arguably the darkest moment
for the biotech industry.
Of the 59 18A companies in Hong Kong stocks, only 10 companies rose in stock prices, and the median decline of the remaining 49 companies reached 43.
43%.
In other words, the stock price is the per capita level; The market value of the entire 18A sector lost nearly 300 billion Hong Kong dollars
.
The data is cold, and they only reflect the fact that the biotech industry is still cold
.
However, after the darkest day, the light of day dawned
.
With the ringing of the New Year's bell, 2022 is a thing of the past and the entire biotech industry is ushering in a new life
.
On the one hand, since the second half of last year, the policy side has frequently released positive signals, indicating that the "iron fist" of fee control has become increasingly gentle; On the other hand, biotech companies that focus on their own development are regaining market recognition
through sufficiently heavy research and development results.
This marks that China's biotechnology industry has collectively entered a new stage
.
If 2022 is the darkest moment for the biotech industry, then 2023 will witness the darkest and new changes
.
/ 01 /
/ 01 /300 billion Hong Kong dollars disappeared
300 billion Hong Kong dollars disappearedThe 18A sector of Hong Kong stocks is a mirror
reflecting the prosperity of the biotechnology industry.
Through this mirror, we can see that the biotechnology industry in 2022 is still cold winter
.
Clover fell 78.
71%,
Baixinan fell 78.
41%,
Tengsheng Bo Pharmaceutical fell 77.
39%,
.
.
.
.
.
.
As mentioned above, of the 59 18A companies in Hong Kong stocks, 10 companies rose and 49 fell, with a median decline of 43.
43%.
At the end of 2021 (some companies will be listed in 2022, calculated by the initial market value of listing), the market value of these 18A companies is 1.
02 trillion Hong Kong dollars, and by the end of 2022, there will be 737.
7 billion Hong Kong dollars
left.
More than 280 billion Hong Kong dollars, disappeared
out of thin air.
It is not difficult to understand the reasons why the market value continues to evaporate, on the one hand, the bubble blown up has not been completely squeezed; On the other hand, the story of some companies gradually turns into accidents
.
Tengsheng Bo medicine is typical
.
Although the first domestic new crown neutralizing antibody halo on the head, in the face of constantly mutating strains, neutralizing antibodies have long been unable to resist
.
As a result, the new crown concept stocks continued to heat up in the past year, but the stock price of Tengsheng Bo Pharmaceutical fell by 77.
39%.
It's no coincidence
.
CANbridge, known as "the first stock in the research and development of innovative drugs for rare diseases", has not attracted the attention of the capital market like biotech in the same field overseas
.
The constraints of the domestic payment environment and the uncertainty of the company's pipeline have caused it to fall 72%
in the past year.
What continues to fall is not only the stock prices and market capitalization of these companies, but also the market's expectations
for the future of the industry.
In the past year, the main me
The share price of Genor Biopharma of the TOO strategy fell by 62.
54%, leaving a market value of only 1.
379 billion Hong Kong dollars
.
Genor Biopharma's net cash exceeded RMB1.
5 billion, far exceeding its market capitalization
.
This means that the market believes that its pipeline can no longer create value, but destroy it
.
It is also understandable
.
In the face of the mountain of medical insurance negotiations, the imagination space of Me Too drugs has long been rapidly shrinking, and it is now impossible
for Biotech to continue to make a lot of money with Me Too drugs.
The industry's extremely high prosperity and optimism have brought market expectations to the peak; However, as the industry enters a downward channel, the market is becoming more rational and re-examining the value of
the industry and enterprises.
/ 02 /
/ 02 /Gathering carnival under the "iron fist"
Gathering carnival under the "iron fist"Of course, the past 2022 has left us with not only disappointment, but also hope
.
The biotechnology industry has turned from bull to bear, and the core inducing factor is the continuous "high-pressure" policy:
Centralized procurement + medical insurance negotiation is the "sword of Damocles" hanging over the heads of pharmaceutical companies; The release of the "Guidelines for Clinical R&D of Antitumor Drugs Oriented by Clinical Value" is the beginning
of the supply-side reform of innovative drugs.
Today, supply-side reforms continue
.
On November 8, 2022, CDE issued the Technical Guidelines for New Drug Benefit-Risk Assessment (Draft for Comments) (hereinafter referred to as the Draft Comment), conveying a clearer opinion: benefit-risk becomes the key
to the marketing review of innovative drugs.
The purpose of CDE is very clear, to dissuade the indiscriminate and encourage pharmaceutical companies to focus on developing drugs
with better results at the clinical research and development stage.
There is no doubt that the reform is painful, but at the same time, the centralized procurement + medical insurance negotiations are releasing positive signals
.
First, in June, the National Health Insurance Administration issued the 2022 Medical Insurance Drug Catalogue Adjustment Work Plan (Draft for Comments), detailing the negotiation and renewal rules and clarifying the price reduction expectations
.
Pharmaceutical companies have more pricing strategies and options, which means that health care negotiations are moving
in a moderate direction.
This is true of medical insurance, as well as the collective procurement that makes pharmaceutical companies painful
.
In September, the spine national procurement took the lead in releasing positive signals
.
Although the overall price of the pre-procurement network is reduced by about 80%, the decline is still not low, but this also makes the price of overseas pharmaceutical factories not dominant, which means that the process of domestic substitution may be accelerated
.
From the national procurement of the spine to the subsequent collection of electrophysiology and other alliances, they are generally moving
along this path.
Feedback to the capital level, the market has used a sustained surge to express satisfaction with the results of collective procurement
.
November 29
Day, the results of the renewal of coronary stents once again made the market excited
.
The purchase volume of coronary stents increased by about 73.
5%, and the purchase price increased by an average of 18%.
This means that in the process of renewing the coronary stent standard, the logic of price for volume in the past has become a double increase
in volume and price.
Although on the whole, centralized procurement and price reduction are still the main theme, it is certain that supervision does not blindly encourage price reduction, but finds a balance between price reduction and encouraging innovation
.
This most likely indicates that the tragic days of the biotech industry are over
.
/ 03 /
/ 03 /The change of darkness and renewal
The change of darkness and renewalAfter the dark, before dawn, the reversal has come many times
.
Since the second half of last year, the biotechnology industry has repeatedly staged violent aesthetics
.
Hang Seng Biotech ETF has the right
to speak on this point.
Since its launch in October last year, the Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF has experienced the long bear road of the pharmaceutical industry: from a high of HK$1.
022 in 2021, it has fallen to a minimum of HK$
0.
482.
But now, with the continued "reversal", the Hang Seng Biotech ETF has risen to HK$0.
709, an increase of nearly 50%.
Policy factors are the catalyst, but more importantly, some companies continue to regain confidence
in the market through eye-catching actions.
Take the recent example, the first Boston Scientific acquired Syntruda at a premium, which is enough to prove the value of the innovation results of the new domestic medical device track
.
At least, foreign capital is willing to "pay"
for the peripheral intervention in this market.
Akeso followed suit, with a US$5 billion license out transaction to refresh the ceiling of China's innovative drugs going overseas, which detonated market attention and accelerated the recovery of the biotechnology sector
.
The recent Kelun Pharmaceutical has traded overseas through nearly 10 billion US dollars of ADC, although it is only a preclinical project, there is still uncertainty in the follow-up, but it still makes the market restless
.
After the baptism of winter, under the continuous improvement of policy expectations and the dynamic stimulation of corporate benefits, it is the inevitable result of the general trend for the pharmaceutical industry to get out of the darkest predicament, and innovation and upgrading are still the unchanged themes
of the industry.
Based on this, for those enterprises that are accustomed to rubbing hot spots and do not have a real innovative spirit, the living environment will continue to deteriorate; For those companies that are committed to solving unmet clinical needs and developing truly innovative drugs, now is the best time
.
In 2023, we will witness the change of darkness and rebirth
.
