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This week, Shanghai aluminum showed a volatile upward trend, with the main 2010 contract closing at 14640 yuan, up 405 yuan
weekly.
Technically, Shanghai aluminum is still in the shock range, but it is slowly rising, and the 5-day moving average has turned upwards
again.
Until the previous high is broken, it is still regarded
as a shock.
At present, based on plate prices, the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is about 2020 yuan / ton, which is still at a historical high
.
The price of raw material alumina continued to fall slightly, and the current average market price was 2320 yuan / ton, and the price trend was relatively stable
.
In addition, the prices of raw materials such as pre-baked anodes, cryolite and aluminum fluoride are also relatively stable
.
Electrolytic aluminum social stocks totaled 740,000 tons on Thursday, down 24,000 tons
from the previous month.
Last week's aluminum inventory increased by 02,000 tons to 251,000 tons
.
At present, both social inventory and the inventory of the previous period are showing a trend of turning upward, partly because July ~ August is the traditional consumption off-season
.
The average weighted operating rate of China's aluminum strip industry in August was 68.
61%, up 0.
46 percentage points from the previous month and down 1.
76 percentage points year-on-year, which was basically in line with expectations
overall.
Although it has entered the traditional consumption season, the recovery of downstream consumption is weaker than the market expects
.
China's electrolytic aluminum output in August was 3.
189 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.
13%.
At present, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 37.
62 million tons, the completed production capacity is 42.
48 million tons, and the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is 88.
6%.
The supply of electrolytic aluminum is slowly increasing
.
Because of high profits, the supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, but the price pressure brought about by the increase in supply is not significant, on the one hand, because the speed of capacity release is lower than market expectations, on the other hand, because the downstream consumption performance is better, electrolytic aluminum inventory is always at a low level
.
At present, the traditional consumption season has arrived, although the recovery is slow, but if electrolytic aluminum inventories can still maintain a low level, or even decline, then aluminum prices may further rise
.
