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On Tuesday, base metals mostly oscillated higher, and bearish sentiment fell sharply, indicating that copper prices rose, and bulls and bears reduced their positions and left the market
.
Shanghai copper gap opened high, 1811 contract trading range of 50460-50010 yuan / ton, the end of the day closed at 50360 yuan / ton, up 1.
53%.
Copper is now running above the moving average, indicating a strong
bullish willingness to rise.
In the external market, as of 15:25 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 6251 US dollars / ton, down 0.
66% on the day, and its rising resistance focused on 6400 US dollars / ton
.
In terms of spot, on the 25th, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot traded at 50-120 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 50400-50500 yuan / ton
.
On the first trading day after the holiday, the monthly price difference in the morning interval widened inverted, and the price difference in the morning market once reached 300 yuan / ton, and then narrowed all the way to about 250 yuan / ton, and the willingness of holders to exchange cash gradually strengthened, but there was little demand, and the overall quotation of the market fell rapidly
under the rapid price reduction of the next month's ticket.
The number of intraday quotation cash-changers has increased significantly, but the downstream maintains rigid demand, and the transaction is mostly completed by long-term order deliverers, although the holders still have a trace of expectation for the consumption before the National Day long holiday, which makes supply and demand slightly tug-of-war, but the risk aversion before the holiday also increases the number of
cash-outs.
In terms of news, the Asian dollar index fluctuated in a narrow range around 94.
2, and the market is currently focused on this week's Fed interest rate meeting, with a probability of raising interest rates of more than
90%.
In terms of industry, the latest monthly report of the International Copper Research Group (ICSG) shows that the global refined copper market has a supply shortage of 45,000 tons in June 2018, of which the global refined copper production in June was about 1.
95 million tons and consumption was about 2 million tons, and the shortage was 50,000 tons in May, narrowing slightly
.
ICSG said that the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 51,000 tons from January to June 2018, compared with a shortfall of 148,000 tons in the same period last year, and the shortage narrowed significantly
.
Overall, intraday copper opened higher, indicating that its willingness to rise has further expanded, as the market expects the Chinese government to stimulate the economy and fight the pressure of US tariffs, is expected to further increase investment in infrastructure projects, and base metals are mostly strong.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1811 contract can be backed above 49,700 yuan to bargain more, enter the market around 50100 yuan, and target 51000 yuan
.
