Bearish sentiment continues to release Shanghai aluminum prices may stabilize

On the supply side, the interference of production restriction policy is still there, from late August to early September, Xinjiang, Guangxi and Yunnan have successively introduced policies to reduce electrolytic aluminum production, Guangxi further increased in mid-September, Guizhou encouraged electrolytic aluminum enterprises to stagger peak production in mid-to-late September, and Qinghai, Ningxia and Guizhou limited production
in October.
Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other places to raise the electricity price of high energy-consuming industries, other provinces and cities electricity prices will also gradually rise, electrolytic aluminum comprehensive electricity price rise, alumina slightly decreased, the total cost of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, aluminum prices fall too quickly, resulting in increased losses of electrolytic aluminum enterprises, production reduction expectations rise
.

On the demand side, the State Council banned one-size-fits-all power cuts, coupled with the decline in aluminum prices, the downstream operating rate rebounded, but due to the greater financial pressure of housing enterprises, the start and completion of construction declined, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles did not recover, and the completion end dragged down the demand obviously
.
The sharp fall in aluminum prices has limited stimulation for replenishment demand, inventory is still accumulating, pay attention to the driving situation of demand after the recovery of operating rate, and pay attention to the inflection point
of inventory.

In terms of inventory, social stocks increased by 31,000 tons month-on-month to 1.
013 million tons, and short-term accumulation may slow down
.

On the whole, many places cancel preferential electricity prices, sharply increase trading electricity prices, winter is coming, thermal coal demand is good, prices may stabilize, electrolytic aluminum costs are firm, the current electrolytic aluminum enterprises lose more, production reduction is expected to heat up
.
On the demand side, the operating rate has rebounded, but the pressure on the back end of real estate is greater, coupled with the gradual entry of the off-season, the demand rebound is limited, the rebalancing of supply and demand may require the actual reduction of supply, pay attention to the actual production reduction of loss-making enterprises, and the current cost support, aluminum prices temporarily stabilize; In the medium and long term, the logic of supply-side contraction has not changed
.