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The "medicine king" has it every year, who will he go to this year? From the data of the three quarterly reports of each MNC company, we may be able to glimpse the answer to this question
in advance.
As the global MNC giants have successively announced their 2022 Q3 financial reports, from the sales of each company's flagship products, the top ten "blockbusters" in the pharmaceutical industry in 2022 are almost on the horizon
.
In addition to Pfizer's new crown vaccine, in the published MNC data, Humira has a sales performance of 15.
658 billion US dollars, only 198 million yuan more than K drug in second place, and has retained the throne
of "drug king".
BMS's Alloto and Gilead's Bitovir followed with sales of $9.
072 billion and $7.
507 billion
, respectively.
On the global drug sales ranking, Lilly ranked tenth with the annual sales of 6.
472 billion US dollars with the hypoglycemic drug duraglutide in 2021, from the third quarterly report data, the sales of dulaglutide in the first three quarters of 2022 are 5.
504 billion US dollars, the growth momentum shows signs of decline, and whether it can maintain the top ten position is still between
the two.
In contrast, Novo Nordisk's semeglutide is regarded as one of the phenomenal new drugs in 2022 that can impact tens of billions of US dollars in sales because of the "lying thin" reputation caused by the "out of
stock" effect in many places.
01 MNC companies, how to drag the "carriage" running to the cliff of patents
MNC companies, how to drag the "carriage" running to the patent cliffSince defeating Pfizer's Lipitor in 2012, Humira has been in the position of "Medicine King" for 9 years
.
In 2021, its annual sales exceeded US$20 billion for the first time, and its cumulative sales since listing exceeded US$180 billion
.
However, in the first quarter of 2022, K Medicine surpassed Humira with a sales difference of 100 million US dollars, and briefly succeeded
offside.
In addition to the competition of latecomers, the "patent cliff" in front of Humira is the most concerned issue
in the market.
On the one hand, based on the huge market vacated by Humira after the patent expires, on the other hand, it is also based on the common dilemma of various companies, in the next ten years, BMS/Pfizer's Alloto, AbbVie/Johnson & Johnson's ibrutinib, Johnson & Johnson's Starano, Gilead's Bitovil and many other blockbuster drugs will face the problem
of where to go after the patent protection period.
AbbVie's chairman and chief executive officer, Rick, said in a conference call after the third quarterly report that the Humira franchise market is expected to be affected by around 45% (+/-10%) by 2023, and specific data requires more detailed forecasts based on factors such as the price of biosimilars
.
As early as 2016, Humira had related patents expired, but for multiple indications of this drug, AbbVie filed about 250 patent applications, building an impenetrable "patent jungle"
.
The calculation of the expiry date of a U.
S.
patent is relatively complex and requires consideration of multiple variables, such as patent term adjustment, patent term extension, etc.
, so the duration sometimes exceeds 20 years
after the filing date.
It is certain that Amgen's biosimilars will be available in the United States from January 2023, and Samsung, Boehringer, Viatris and Sandoz will all launch their own versions of adalimumab
in 2023.
AbbVie's hope of filling the sales trough left by Humira seems to be in its Skyrizi and Rinvoq
Two
drugs.
In the conference call after the third quarterly report, company executives repeatedly said that the immunotherapy drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now on track to achieve more than $7.
5 billion in total sales this year, far exceeding initial expectations and meeting their goal of eventually surpassing Humira's peak revenue as an option
to replace Humira.
02 K drug is expected to become the "new drug king", O drug is still hovering far away at the door of the super bombshell
K medicine is expected to become the "new drug king", and O drug is still hovering far away at the door of the super bombshellAccording to financial report disclosure data, Merck's K drug sales in the first three quarters were $15.
461 billion, which is expected to become a super blockbuster drug
that breaks through the $20 billion mark.
In the first three quarters, Merck achieved revenue of $45.
453 billion, of which pharmaceutical business sales were $39.
826 billion, and Keytruda accounted for 38.
8%
of pharmaceutical revenue.
In 2021, Keytruda generated sales of $17,186 million, pharmaceutical business revenue was $42,753 million, and Keytruda accounted for 40.
2%
of total pharmaceutical business revenue.
With the increase in the market penetration of key cancers such as NSCLC and triple-negative breast cancer, K drug achieved double-digit growth, with a growth rate of 20%, accounting for nearly one-third of Merck's revenue
.
Looking ahead, the proportion of K drug in Merck's total pharmaceutical business sales has increased year by year, and the annual sales of K drug in 2019 and 2020 were 11.
084 billion US dollars and 14.
38 billion US dollars, accounting for 32.
5% and 39.
28%
of the total revenue of pharmaceutical business.
Evaluate
Pharma has predicted that Keytruda's global sales could reach $24.
32 billion by 2026, making it the world's best-selling drug
.
However, in the face of K medicine, Merck also has concerns about the "patent cliff"
.
Fierce
Pharma previously released data showing that some key patents for K drugs will expire in 2028, and some pharmaceutical companies are already working on the research and development
of Keytruda biosimilars.
In response to this crisis, Merck has made acquisitions in
recent years.
In May this year, Kelun Pharmaceutical announced that its holding subsidiary, Kelun Biotech, signed an amendment to the license agreement with Merck, under which Kelun will give Merck a paid exclusive license for the exclusive license of Biomacromolecular Oncology Project A with independent intellectual property rights to Merck for commercial development outside Greater China (including Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan); In July this year, Merck and Orion announced a global R&D cooperation agreement to jointly develop Orion's investigational therapy ODM-208 and other targeted cytochrome P450
11A1 (CYP11A1) drugs; In February 2021, Merck acquired Pandion for US$1.
85 billion to expand its autoimmune disease R&D pipeline
.
Previously, the news that Merck wanted to acquire the ADC company Seagen was also once rumored
.
Compared with the $15.
461 billion in the first three quarters of K Drug, O Drug's $6.
033 billion is much inferior, and it is still hovering
far away at the door of the "super blockbuster".
However, from the perspective of BMS's own product line, O drug is still its most important growth driver
.
Previously, Evaluate
Pharma has predicted that in 2022, O Drug will rank 8th among the world's top 10 best-selling drugs, achieving sales of $8.
88 billion
.
03 The new crown vaccine continues to dominate the top three? Johnson & Johnson super "items" are being watched by wolves
The new crown vaccine continues to dominate the top three? Johnson & Johnson super "items" are being watched by wolvesAccording to current data forecasts, among the top 10 best-selling drugs in the world this year, the two new crown vaccines of Pfizer's new crown vaccine Comirnaty and Moderna new crown vaccine Spikevax will still be among the best
.
Comirnaty's total sales of $26.
477 billion in the previous three quarters have almost no suspense, but because Moderna's third quarterly report has not yet been announced, there is still uncertainty
about whether Spikevax can enter the top three.
In the first half of 2022, Pfizer's revenue was $53.
402 billion, an increase of 60% over the same period last year, and its growth was mainly due to the doubling of sales
of the new crown vaccine Comirnaty and the new crown drug Paxlovid.
Among them, Comirnaty's sales in the first half of the year were $22.
075 billion, a year-on-year increase of 95%.
Pfizer explained in its earnings report that Comirnaty grew 20% globally in the second quarter, mainly due to strong growth in emerging markets and delivery monetization for some developed markets, which also partially offset the slowdown
in the US and Canadian markets.
According to Moderna's semi-annual report, the company achieved total revenue of $10.
8 billion, up 71% year-over-year, mainly due to the strong growth rate of the COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax (mRNA-1273), as Moderna's only listed product, Spikevax sales reached a record high of $10.
5 billion, an increase of 76%
year-on-year.
Moderna expects Spikevax purchase agreement sales to be delivered in 2022 of approximately $21 billion
.
Although the latest data for the third quarter has not yet been disclosed, only with semi-annual report data, the two new crown vaccines have become one million players with sales, taking the lead
.
However, due to the slowdown in the growth of the global new crown vaccination rate, the reduction in vaccine demand, coupled with many factors such as new entrants, the rapid growth of the new crown vaccine may slow down
in the future.
According to Airfinity's forecast data, global vaccine production could exceed 9 billion doses in 2022, but demand for vaccines could decline
significantly by 2023 and beyond.
Therefore, it remains to be seen
whether the two new crown vaccines will have growth fatigue in the future and affect the performance of the two vaccines.
In addition to the new crown vaccine, the two super "single" drugs that Johnson & Johnson entered the list are also facing the crisis
of "wolves".
Johnson & Johnson sold two drugs more than $2 billion
in the third quarter.
Among them, ustekinumab became the strongest pillar of performance with sales of 2.
449 billion US dollars, followed by daratumumab surging 29.
8% to 2.
052 billion US dollars
.
It is worth noting that Johnson & Johnson's two best-selling products have been listed
in China.
However, the main patent for ustekinumab in the United States expires in 2023
.
In China, Huadong Pharmaceutical, Winxin Biotech and Bio-Thera have made rapid
progress in the research and development of ustekinumab biosimilars.
According to public reports, last year, the ustekinumab biosimilar HDM3001 (QX001S) and the ustekinumab biosimilar BAT2206 developed by Sino-Huadong, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Huadong Pharmaceutical, and Tsuen Xin Biologics, have entered the phase III clinical study stage
for the treatment of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis in adults.
In addition, daratumumab is also facing challenges
from biosimilars in China.
04 What other potential players are there to impact the top 10 best-selling drugs in 2022?
What other potential players are there to impact the top 10 best-selling drugs in 2022?If it comes to potential players, Novo Nordinsmeglutide is a phenomenal product, or on
the list.
According to the 2022 half-year report, sales of the subcutaneous injection preparation Ozempic of semeglutide were DKK 26.
384 billion (US$3.
604 billion), an increase of 87% year-on-year; Sales of Rybelsus, an oral preparation of semeglutide, increased significantly by 153% to DKK 4.
235 billion (USD 579 million); Together, they contributed DKK 30.
619 billion (US$4.
183 billion).
In 2021, Novo Nordexmigluglutide's annual performance is about 5.
886 billion US dollars, which is not significantly bright in the TOP10
.
Specifically, in fiscal year 2021, Novo Nordinsmeglutide Ozempic and Rybelsus generated revenues of DKK 33.
705 billion (approximately USD 5.
147 billion) and DKK 4.
838 billion (approximately USD 739 million),
respectively.
A total of DKK 38,543 million (approximately USD 5,886 million).
If it continues to maintain a high growth rate, Novo Nordinsmeglutide may exceed $10 billion this year, becoming a strong opponent
for the top-10 best-selling drugs.
In addition, due to the strong clinical demand, Daiichi Sankyo Enhertu is also worth paying attention to
.
Although it may not be enough to reach the top 10 best-selling drugs, sales of 79.
5 billion yen, or 535 million US dollars, in the first half of the year, prompted Daiichi Sankyo to sharply raise Enhertu's full-year sales forecast from 870 million US dollars to 1.
3 billion US dollars.
Specifically, the U.
S.
market will contribute $1 billion in sales to Enhertu this year, Enhertu has maintained the first choice for new patients in second-line HER2-positive breast cancer, third-line HER2-positive breast cancer, and second-line HER2-positive gastric cancer, and HER2 low-expression breast cancer is also undergoing rapid market penetration
.
In addition to K drugs and other attention, which is expected to hit the "new drug king", its HPV vaccine Gardasil has also become a member of the top 10 best-selling drugs that are expected to hit the best-selling drugs, with sales of 4.
144 billion US dollars in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 31%.
For the third quarter, GARDASIL/GARDASIL
9 sales increased 15% to $2.
3 billion, driven primarily by strong demand outside the U.
S.
, particularly in
China.
This time, BMS also has a number of drugs or shortlisted
.
In terms of sales proportion, the main force is the anticoagulant Eliquis and PD-1 monoclonal antibody Opdivo (O drug).
Among them, the cumulative sales of Eliquis in the first three quarters reached 9.
072 billion US dollars, and the cumulative sales of O drugs in the first three quarters reached 6.
033 billion US dollars
.
However, BMS's Q3 earnings report as a whole still declined, mainly due to the blockbuster Revlimid (lenalidomide) hit by generic drugs, compared with Q3 2021, its international revenue fell by as much as 76% year-on-year, to $250 million
.
The chess game is undecided, and see how the pattern of this year's top-selling drugs TOP10 changes
.
