Bad weather, soybean prices spiraling up

Introduction: in Iowa, Michigan, southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, soybean prices rose sharply in July due to high temperature and low rainfall The drought in Southeast Missouri and early Arkansas was only moderately relieved All of the above areas have a large number of soybean planting areas Spot soybean prices in central Illinois averaged $5.00 a bushel in July, up from $4.58 in June However, the intermittent rainstorm has prevented the crops from being threatened by more serious water shortage, thus restricting the rise of soybean price In early August, the United States Department of agriculture conducted the first objective yield survey of soybean crops in 2001, in which the soybean crop density, flowering and pod setting (if there are already pods) were measured in the pre-determined sample fields Based on previous year's inventory and average pod growth data, the current results show that soybean yield per acre in the United States will be 38.7 bushels per acre, up from 38.1 bushels last year According to the estimated harvesting area of 74.1 million acres, the soybean production in August is predicted to reach a record 2867 million bushels in 2001 As of August 5, 57% of us soybeans were rated good to excellent During the same period, 57% of American soybeans have entered the pod stage The progress of podding was 51% ahead of the five-year average, but growth in Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin lagged behind Therefore, at present, soybean is in a vulnerable stage If the weather is bad in the next 4 to 6 weeks, it will threaten the normal development of pod size For example, in early August last year, soybeans were in relatively good condition, but the high temperature in August and September combined with the lack of moisture resulted in a decrease in soybean yield per unit area west of the Mississippi River In 2001, the main driving force of soybean squeezing expansion in the United States came from the increased demand for soybean oil Although soybean crushing is expected to be cut by 5 million bushels from last month, U.S soybean processing plants expect soybean crushing to reach 1655 million bushels in 2001 / 02, up from 1630 million bushels in 2000 / 01 As soybean imports in China and Western Europe continue to be active, it will support us soybean exports to set a record again However, due to the significant increase in soybean and soybean meal supply in South America, US trade may only catch up with the export of 995 million bushels in 2001 / 02 Due to the reduction of soybean production compared with last month and the expected reduction of soybean stocks to 250 million bushels at the beginning of 2001 / 02, it is expected to reduce the end of next year's inventory to 300 million bushels This month, the annual average farm price of soybeans is expected to rise to $4.35 to $5.35 per bushel, compared with $4.55 per bushel in 2000 / 01 The new farm bill is being approved by Congress and could be another factor in raising soybean prices for the new year Some expect the house of representatives to lower the U.S soybean loan rate from $5.26 per bushel to $4.92 and expand the acreage available for the conservation reserve If the legislation is passed, the above provisions will lead to the reduction of soybean planting area, so the soybean supply in 2001 will increase in value (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: