August 2019 Analysis of China's Agricultural Supply and Demand Situation (CASDE-No.38)

Corn: This month, China's corn imports are estimated to have increased to 4 million tons in 2018/19, an increase of 700,000 tons from last month's estimate, mainly due to a significant reduction in imports of sorghum from the United States.
domestic demand gap narrowed to 22 million tonnes from the previous month due to increased corn imports.
prices, supported by corn costs and grain storage prices, the domestic corn price range was raised to 1800-1900 yuan per ton, 50 yuan higher than the previous estimate range.
this month coincides with the critical period of corn water demand, although heavy precipitation, strong conflowal weather caused local flooding, but good moisture conditions on corn growth overall benefits outweigh the disadvantages.
corn production and consumption in 2019/20 remained unchanged from last month's forecast.
: China's soybean imports for 2018/19 are estimated to be 83.5 million tons in 2018/19, down 1.5 million tons from the previous month's estimate, mainly due to lower-than-expected actual soybean arrivals in July.
As of late July, most of the country's main soybean producing areas climate suitability is higher than the previous year, but taking into account the ≥10 degrees C accumulation temperature decreased from the same period last year, especially Heilongjiang ≥10 degrees C accumulation temperature significantly less, the heat conditions are worse than the previous year, this month's forecast for 2019/20 soybean yield is the same as the previous year, the latter will continue to observe the main production area weather on soybean yield.
Cotton: This month, it is estimated that China's cotton consumption in 2018/19 will be revised down to 8.25 million tons and imports will be reduced to 2.05 million tons, taking into account the unfavourable situation of China's textile and clothing exports in recent months and the low level of business climate in the industry.
forecast this month that China's cotton production in 2019/20 will be reduced to 1,758 kg/ha, with a total output of 5.8 million tons, due to persistent high temperatures and low rainfall in Xinjiang cotton region since July.
the forecast of annual consumption, imports and exports will not be adjusted, and the end-of-period inventory will be 6.84 million tons.
Sino-US economic and trade frictions affect the confidence of the downstream market of the industry and lower the annual average price of cotton at home and abroad.
: This month, China's edible vegetable oil production was estimated at 25.18 million tons in 2018/19, down 260,000 tons from last month's estimate.
China imported 7.11 million tons of edible vegetable oil, an increase of 560,000 tons from last month's estimate, mainly because China's soybean imports were lower than previously expected, and oil imports such as rapeseed oil and palm oil were more alternative.
, China's imports of rapeseed oil from Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and other countries increased significantly, and increased imports of rapeseed oil from the United Arab Emirates, Belarus and other countries.
forecast this month that China's edible vegetable oil production in 2019/20 will be 25.95 million tons, down 20,000 tons from last month's forecast, mainly due to a slight decrease in cotton seed oil production due to the decline in cotton yields.
Recently, Typhoon Lichma made landfall in China, and the increase in rainfall is conducive to alleviating the drought in some producing areas, but it may also affect peanut production in some producing areas, the specific impact of which needs to be further observed, and no adjustment will be made to peanut production this month.
imports of edible vegetable oil from China were 691 tons, an increase of 180,000 tons over the previous month's forecast, mainly due to an expected increase in rapeseed oil imports.
33.36 million tons of edible vegetable oil, in keeping with last month's forecast.
: At present, China's sugar market has entered the traditional consumption season.
according to the China Sugar Industry Association, as of the end of July, the country's cumulative sales of sugar in 2018/19 were 8.566 million tons, with a sugar sales rate of 79.6%, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year.
in view of the average sugar price since 2018/19 and the basic judgment of the domestic and foreign sugar market later this year, this month the 2018/19 sugar valuation range will be adjusted to 5200-5400 yuan/tonne.
Since July, Guangxi continued to lack of light, sugar cane photosynthmatic use is inhibited, thereby affecting the growth of sugar cane pull festival, some areas of sugar cane plants high year-on-year short, Yunnan rainfall is more, resulting in some sugar cane downfall, while pests and diseases increased, but its specific impact has yet to be continued to be observed, this month's forecast data for 2019/20 will not be adjusted.