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Recently, the price of Shanghai rubber continued to fall, returning to the lower edge
of the previous shock range.
It was mainly affected
by the weak atmosphere of the overall industrial products and the logic of September contract delivery.
Thailand's raw material prices loosened slightly, the supply side is still expected due to the severity of the epidemic, the domestic reality on the demand side is weak, and the growth rate of export tires in July slowed
down rapidly.
At present, the supply and demand of Shanghai rubber are weak, but the valuation is low, and the inventory outside the region continues to go to storage month-on-month, and the warehouse receipt is low year-on-year
.
However, the September contract expires immediately, and the return to the spot spread with the hybrid rubber is reasonable, and the price is still mainly weak and volatile
.
On the whole, the supply gradually entered the production increase period in August, the upstream raw material supply was relatively sufficient, the downstream demand was stable, and the overall destocking continued, but the speed slowed down, the overall supply-demand mismatch in August eased compared with July, and the demand side is expected to be relatively stable and slightly rebounded, and the overall destocking slowed down
.
Domestically, the supply of raw materials in Yunnan has gradually increased, but alternative planting has not yet entered, Hainan supply has entered the peak season, but raw material prices are still high, the current upstream factories are still loss-making, and the import volume on the demand side has declined year-on-year, and it is expected that September will continue to go to inventory or fluctuate slightly, but as the supply gradually increases, the destocking will slow down
.
On the macro front, most countries are in the post-epidemic era of economic recovery, a few countries have the outbreak of the epidemic again, the appreciation of the RMB has been suppressed in the short term, and the United States has tightening expectations, all of which have a short-term impact
on sentiment.
The mismatch between supply and demand still exists in the short term, but it is gradually alleviating, and the upper and lower space is limited
.
