Analysis on the trend of soybean meal price

Introduction: Recently, the price of soybean meal in China has been rising rapidly By the end of last week, the price of soybean meal in Guangdong was 2080-2100 yuan / ton, in Shandong 2100 yuan / ton, in Jiangsu 2120-2130 yuan / ton, in Guangxi 2140 yuan / ton, in Sichuan 2260 yuan / ton, in Heilongjiang 2050 yuan / ton The price of soybean meal in each region was 150-250 yuan / ton higher than that two weeks ago Georgia is up about 10% There are two main reasons for the price increase of domestic soybean meal One is the rising import price of foreign soybean (the price of imported soybean reached 2360-2400 yuan / ton last week), which causes the cost of soybean meal in domestic oil plants to rise continuously and the oil plants to raise the sales price of soybean meal under the pressure of cost The other is the increasing demand for feed in domestic aquaculture and aquaculture since July, and the sales of soybean meal The situation is obviously improved compared with the previous period Facing the situation of domestic soybean meal market, is the price of soybean meal rising? Or fall? Different people have different views Fude.com doesn't want to make bold predictions here, but only hopes to analyze many factors that promote the domestic soybean meal price trend at present, so as to provide reference for the industry Factors supporting the rising trend of domestic soybean meal: first, the rising cost of imported soybean Although the soybean price of Chicago Board of trade fell sharply in late July for three consecutive days, and the soybean price of August contract fell from 5.96 US dollars / bushel to 5.34 US dollars / bushel, a drop of 10% However, stimulated by the possibility of continued high temperature weather in the Midwest of the United States last Wednesday, the soybean price of Chicago Board of trade rose again until last Thursday, Us August soybean futures closed at $5.68 per bushel On the spot side, last Wednesday, the CIF price of us spot soybeans was 236 US dollars / ton, and the CIF price of South American soybeans was 224 US dollars / ton According to this price, the domestic duty paid price reached 2260-2380 yuan / ton Such a high price of soybeans is bound to cause the cost of domestic soybean meal to continue to rise Second, the domestic demand for soybean meal has been effectively improved After entering into July, the domestic aquaculture and aquaculture industry entered the peak production season, and the demand for feed increased Coupled with the recovery of imported soybeans in the early stage, domestic feed production enterprises were generally bearish on soybean meal Therefore, the management strategy of low inventory was adopted With the rise of soybean meal price, domestic feed production enterprises generally increased the replenishment behavior, resulting in a significant increase in domestic demand for soybean meal However, we should also note that although the demand for soybean meal has increased, compared with previous years, the demand for domestic feed has declined significantly this year Third, the uncertainty of soybean arrival in August With China's soybean production approaching the harvest period, domestic manufacturers are more and more cautious about imported soybeans It is generally expected that the price of domestic soybeans will be significantly different from that of imported soybeans in the industry Therefore, blind import of soybeans will inevitably be suppressed by domestic soybeans with low price In this case, the quantity of imported goods in August has become a major concern in the industry 4 Support from the state's full tax rebate policy for soybean meal export Recently, the market revealed that the state has approved the full tax rebate policy for soybean meal, and the export tax rebate for soybean meal will be increased from the current 5% to 13%, and the above policy will be calculated from the beginning of 2001 The promulgation of this policy will greatly support domestic oil processing enterprises and provide favorable guarantee for domestic oil plants to explore the international market In the first half of this year, China's cumulative export reached 596000 tons, nearly 10 times higher than the same period last year China's soybean meal sales have a large consumer market Under the situation of high international soybean meal prices, China's soybean meal exports Undoubtedly, it will ease the domestic sales pressure 5 The price trend of edible oil is expected to be stable in the later period Recently, one of the characteristics of the change of domestic oil market is that the price of crude soybean oil and rapeseed oil is lower than that of international market except palm oil After China's accession to the world trade organization, it has fulfilled its commitment to issue 2.52 million tons of soybean oil import quota If the domestic soybean oil price rises substantially, these imported soybean oil will become a reality According to the statistics of COFCO futures, more than 200000 tons of crude soybean oil will be imported to Hong Kong from around July 20, 90% of which is Argentine soybean oil, 100000 tons of South American soybean oil and 20000 tons of American soybean oil will be imported in August, plus a small amount of imports in June, a total of 400000 tons of soybean oil will be imported into China in the near future, and the inflow of these soybean oil into the market will play a good role in stabilizing the domestic soybean oil price, Therefore, the domestic soybean oil price is unlikely to rise significantly Factors supporting the decline of domestic soybean meal: first, the price of domestic soybean meal has risen to a higher level in recent years At present, the price of domestic soybean meal has exceeded the level before the recovery of imported soybeans this year The price of soybean meal in most areas of China has exceeded 2100 yuan / ton Such high market price is bound to restrain the demand of some soybean meal According to the follow-up survey of fude.com, the sales volume of soybean meal in most areas of China has a decreasing trend If the high price of soybean meal continues to be maintained, China will The demand for internal soybean meal is likely to decrease further 2 Domestic soybean meal supply may increase in the near future After the recovery of imported soybeans, the cost of imported soybeans of some oil production enterprises is higher, and they can not start production under the current price conditions However, after the current price of soybean meal and soybean oil rises, the processing and production of these oil plants has been profitable Therefore, the supply of domestic soybean meal is likely to increase in the near future 3 Domestic oil plants increase sales at a high level Facing the increasing price of soybean meal, domestic oil processing enterprises have increased the sales of soybean meal in order to ensure the realization of profits Forward contract sales are widely used in oil factories all over the country, which can not only lock the processing profits but also ensure the future sales of soybean meal, which is very beneficial for oil enterprises With the general strengthening of soybean meal sales, soybean meal prices are bound to be under pressure Fourth, domestic feed processing plants have adopted the substitute of soybean meal After the sharp rise of domestic soybean meal, feed processing enterprises, under the pressure of cost, began to reduce the use of soybean meal, or began to change the formula of feed production, using substitutes for soybean meal such as rapeseed meal and cottonseed meal, which will reduce the demand for soybean meal, which is not very sufficient at all This situation has been found in the market tracking of fule.com This week, Guangdong Province The obvious increase in the price of rapeseed meal in the region is a good illustration of this problem Through the analysis of the factors that affect the price trend of domestic soybean meal, we can find that there are many factors that affect the price of soybean meal, and any one of them may change the direction of the price of soybean meal Fude.com believes that among many factors, the quantity of imported soybeans in August will be the most critical If the quantity of imported soybeans in August is stable, then the price of soybean meal will depend on the joint effect of other factors If the quantity of soybean in August is small and the supply is short, then the price of soybean meal in August will continue to maintain the current rising market However, from the tracking of COFCO futures on the shipment of South American soybeans, there are 11 ships of South American soybeans (about 550000 tons) that will arrive in August At the same time, the market also hears that on July 30, China purchased another 5 ships of South American soybeans In addition, the arrival of us soybeans imported by China, it is estimated that the number of soybeans imported in August will not be too small How to change the price of Houshi soybean meal? Different people have different opinions Here, fude.com is just trying to draw lessons from others We hope that the majority of users can provide your opinions, discuss the market concerns together, and provide comprehensive analysis and reference for domestic soybean meal production and use units (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: