Analysis of recent corn market trends

Introduction: On December 11, China formally joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) and became its 143rd member This is a memorable moment After 15 years of long foreign negotiations, China has finally joined the WTO The whole country is proud and proud of this Joining the WTO is based on the Party Central Committee's comprehensive analysis of the domestic and foreign situations The decision-making of rapid reform and opening-up and socialist modernization conforms to China's fundamental and long-term interests, is the inevitable choice to promote the sustained, rapid and healthy development of China's economy, and is an important sign that China's opening-up has entered a new stage It can be said that the impact of China's accession to the WTO on all walks of life is not the same, and the degree of opening to the outside world is not the same The degree of opening to the outside world of China's agriculture ranks first in all industries, so the impact will be the greatest On the other hand, the author summarizes the current environment of the domestic corn market, hoping to help the corn distributors The analysis is as follows: first, new rice continues to be listed, the acquisition work is facing difficulties At present, all corn producing areas in China are actively organizing the purchase of new grains However, at this stage, the purchase is faced with many difficulties Take the production areas as an example, due to the early climate factors, the quality of new corn produced in autumn this year is low and the water content is large This autumn, China has re formulated the purchase policy of new rice, and the corn below the third class is not purchased according to the protection price, which starts from the customers The purchase of low-quality corn is restricted in view The phenomenon of grain depot returning (i.e the farmer pulls the new grain to the grain depot, and the grain depot does not purchase it temporarily due to the high water content and other reasons, the main reason for the purchase is the low water content, and the low-quality corn is pulled back by the farmer) is particularly significant Due to the high temperature in this winter, the time course of farmers drying and dewatering the new corn in their own courtyard increases, and the storage enterprises increase The number of acquisitions is relatively small; in the process of acquisition of storage enterprises, the other problem is capital turnover Because the loan policy of Agricultural Development Bank of China implements "loan by sale, loan by effect", this policy is difficult for grain purchase and sale enterprises to realize Because corn is a seasonal growing crop, the "current events" of output change and price change are strong, so it is difficult for sale enterprises to find it Customers who want to buy corn in advance are also less likely to buy risks in advance As a result, it is difficult for enterprises to obtain loans, the effectiveness of policies is difficult to reflect and many other problems, and the lack of funds hinders the large-scale purchase of new grains In this rare and difficult situation, private grain traders take the opportunity to lower the price for purchase, while private grain traders are flexible because of their own flexibility With the advantages of strong nature and high capital turnover, the market share in the acquisition market has increased In its sales link, it adopts the way of "sell as you buy" and "go as you see the profit", which plays a role in suppressing the market price Once again and again, the price falls again and again, thus forming the current market pattern The continuous decline of the price leads to the aggravation of the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market The purchasing enterprises dare not to trade in, but also take the "use as you go" approach The strategy of "buy with you", the market demand is not prosperous, at the same time, the farmers' psychology of reluctant to sell is gradually strengthened with the falling price of grain, and the enthusiasm of selling grain is not high; all kinds of reasons have affected the purchase progress of new rice this autumn The new situation and problems in the acquisition work will play a decisive role in how to position the corn market in the later stage 2 Market supply tends to increase, and industry insiders are more bearish At the time of Qiuliang's listing, the market supply is also increasing Just as the supply continues to increase, another force makes it increase again A few days ago, a message came from the port that Jilin grain group cancelled the earlier signed corn export contract of more than 1 million tons, and COFCO also cancelled a few contracts At the same time, China purchased another 500000 tons of US National jade Rice, the news came out one after another, the insiders were puzzled, why we didn't formally enter WTO, when the domestic corn market was low, we bought a large number of foreign corn, before a series of problems were not effectively explained, recently it came out that China bought another 500000 tons of corn, the shipping period is from March to May next year, its 250000 tons of American corn, the other 250000 tons of South America, the reality is in the eye Before, the purchase of foreign corn by Chinese government will continue, and the increase of import quantity is inevitable Last year, the export quantity of corn in China reached more than 10 million tons Although this year's export quantity has declined significantly, it is still a large part higher than the import share Now, the export is in a deadlock, and the import tends to increase The insiders expect that the supply quantity of domestic corn market will continue to increase in the later period It will also continue to strengthen, with the sharp increase of market supply and the pressure drop of prices, and the industry is more bearish on the prospect of market development The industry's growing bearish atmosphere on the market is an invisible pressure on the corn spot market, and the price bullish in the later period is worrying 3 The end of the year is approaching and the market demand stage is increasing As in previous years, the end of the year is the time when the demand increases periodically The current time is close to the new year's day and the Spring Festival The new year's day and the Spring Festival are the peak season of livestock product consumption Moreover, people's consumption of meat will increase after the cool autumn Therefore, the prosperity of the planned breeding industry will have a significant pull on corn consumption According to the data, in the first half of the year, the output of meat and aquatic products in China was 30.8 million tons and 17.02 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 3% According to this calculation, the annual new corn consumption was about 3 million tons The arrival of the festival stimulated the periodic recovery of demand quantity and brought favorable opportunity for market price The increase of demand stimulates the rise of price However, at this stage, all kinds of adverse factors surround the corn market There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere Whether it is the festival stimulating effect or the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the contrast between the two plays a direct role in the later development of corn market Fourth, foreign demand is increasing and price promotion is increasing Recently, news came from the soybean market that there is still a large demand for non genetically modified soybeans in the international market From next year, South Korea will import 300000 tons of soybeans from China every year It can be seen that the market share of non genetically modified products will still be larger than that of genetically modified products before the genetically modified products are recognized by the international market However, no genetically modified ingredients are found in the inspection of corn in China Compared with the trend of active trade in the soybean market, non genetically modified corn in China will also be favored by international buyers in the later period, and the purchase quantity will increase As China's domestic corn products are non GMO Products, it is expected that the share of domestic corn in the international market will tend to increase in the short term If the export is optimistic again, the driving force for price promotion will increase again 5 China's accession to the WTO has put a lot of pressure on corn production Because of the high cost of corn production in China, the low degree of large-scale and intensive corn production, the low labor efficiency, and the lack of advantages in corn price, the United States, a big corn producer, has used corn gene technology, which has greatly increased the level of per unit yield and reduced the production cost Compared with China, corn in the international market is not competitive, and the export quantity is also in other countries The rapid development of industrial production tends to decrease After China's accession to the WTO, the amount of tariff quota of corn promised by China is relatively large, and the proportion of state-owned trade management is decreasing year by year In addition, the export subsidy measures cannot be taken in the future, so a large number of corn exports are difficult to recover in a short period of time Therefore, in the future, domestic corn will face great pressure To sum up, at this stage, the price of corn market in China has the opportunity to rise again, but also the difficulty to face the impact Due to the strong variability of current events and frequent market fluctuations, we need to constantly predict the price trend We believe that as long as we have a comprehensive grasp of the overall grain market, we have a deep understanding of the development environment of corn market Yes, we will have a clear idea of the market price orientation.