Analysis on the supply and demand situation of soybean market in China

Abstract: affected by the price factors last year, it is estimated that the planting area of soybean in 2003 will be 140 million mu, an increase of 6% over the previous year, and the output will exceed 17 million tons Among them, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other areas increased more 4p4 it is estimated that the soybean import in 2002 / 2003 will be 13 million tons, the annual new supply will be 29.15 million tons, the annual total demand will be 28.9 million tons, and the supply will be slightly greater than the demand Soybean oil imports are expected to increase to 850000 tons, showing a pattern of oversupply The inventory consumption ratio increased from 29.1% in the previous year to 38%, showing a strong alarm The output of soybean meal is expected to increase to 15.79 million tons Affected by SARS, the demand for soybean meal feed is not strong It is expected to be 14.5 million tons, and the export volume is about 1 million tons The inventory consumption ratio dropped to 8.2% from 9.1% last year, showing a pattern of supply exceeding demand 4p4 in the middle and last ten days of April, international soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell, while the price of imported American soybean was still high, exceeding the price of domestic soybean The stock of domestic soybeans has been decreasing and farmers are reluctant to sell them Since the middle of April, the price of soybean meal has continued to rise, but the price of soybean oil has shown a downward trend In the middle of April, affected by "SARS", the market experienced a short-term rush to buy prices to stop the decline and pick up It is expected that with the listing of soybeans in South America, the price of imported soybeans will fall, the price of soybean meal will gradually fall, and the decline of soybean oil price has been set 4p4 due to the rapid expansion of domestic soybean crushing capacity, the domestic oil companies have a sharp increase in soybean demand If not controlled, the soybean import in 2003 will reach more than 16 million tons, resulting in a serious oversupply of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal market 4p41 The enthusiasm of farmers to grow soybeans is increasing It is expected that the output will exceed 17 million tons in 2003 Since the end of 2002, the income of farmers in the main production area will increase With the government's policy support, it is expected that the planting area of soybeans will increase substantially in 2003 According to the intention survey of planting area of crops by the end of 2002, it is estimated that the planting area of soybean in 2003 will be 140 million mu, an increase of 6% According to the survey, under the current high price, the actual planting area in Northeast China is likely to exceed this level The planting area in Heilongjiang Province may reach 60 million tons, and that in Jilin Province may reach 10 million mu According to last year's unit production level, the output is expected to reach a new high, exceeding 17 million tons 4p4 in the middle of April, there was a large range of precipitation in the north of China The soil moisture in the main soybean producing areas was suitable for soybean sowing Although the drought in Heilongjiang Province was serious, the drought area was mainly concentrated in the southwest of Songnen Plain, which had little impact on soybean sowing The precipitation in the main soybean producing areas was suitable for soybean sowing in ten days The middle part of Jiangnan is in the period from emergence to trilobite The temperature is 1 ~ 2 ℃ higher in ten days, and the sunshine is good, which is good for the growth of soybean seedlings 4p4 the import of soybeans and soybean oil increased significantly in the second and first quarters According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported 3.888 million tons of soybeans in the first quarter, an increase of 70% over the same period of last year, including 1.864 million tons of soybeans in March, an increase of 632000 tons over the same period of last year Due to different harvest seasons, 3.693 million tons were imported from the United States, accounting for 95% of the total In the first quarter, exports totaled 90000 tons, up 17% year on year, mainly to Japan, South Korea and other neighboring countries As the current import price is too high, enterprises' import enthusiasm has declined In the first quarter of 4p4, China imported 234000 tons of soybean oil, an increase of 3.6 times over the same period of last year The rapid increase of soybean oil import is mainly due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets In the first quarter, the cumulative export of soybean oil was 3000 tons, down 85% from the same period last year, mainly due to the high domestic soybean oil price In the first quarter of 4p4, 138000 tons of soybean meal were exported, down 44% from the same period of last year, mainly to Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and other neighboring countries and regions No soybean meal was imported in the first quarter of 2003 In 4p43 and 2002 / 03, the supply and demand of domestic soybean market was basically balanced, and the soybean oil market was oversupplied The contradiction between the supply and demand of soybean meal was slightly alleviated 4p4 (1) it was predicted that the supply and demand of soybean market was basically balanced Due to the expansion of the crushing capacity of enterprises, it was predicted that the import of soybean in 2002 / 03 would exceed 13 million tons, plus 1615 in China The annual output of 10000 tons is about 29.15 million tons, an increase of 3.36 million tons compared with the previous year It is estimated that the annual soybean crushing capacity is about 1996 million tons, an increase of 1.17 million tons compared with the previous year, and the annual total consumption is about 28.9 million tons It is estimated that the inventory at the end of the period will increase by 250000 tons, showing a pattern of supply slightly exceeding demand The inventory consumption ratio is the same as that of the previous year, accounting for 14.2% In recent months, 4p4 has imported a large amount of soybeans As of March, about 7.59 million tons of soybeans had been imported in 2002 / 03, an increase of 2.53 million tons over the same period of the previous year The total market supply is relatively sufficient The main reasons for the temporary high price are as follows: first, the supply of domestic oil soybeans in Northeast China is tight, farmers are reluctant to sell them, the price of soybeans in Northeast China has no market, the shortage of raw materials and the decrease of profits lead to the production restriction or shutdown of small and medium-sized enterprises in Northeast China and the mainland; second, the increased price of imported soybeans in the United States is relatively high The resource of soybean is very uneven, the supply of domestic soybean in Northeast China is tight, the supply of imported soybean in coastal areas is sufficient, and the pattern of large-scale enterprises monopolizing raw materials is forming 4p4 (2) there is a large amount of soybean oil imports, showing a pattern of oversupply There is a strong alarm 4p4 It is estimated that the domestic output of soybean oil in 2002 / 03 will be 3.5 million tons, an increase of 310000 tons over the previous year, and the import of soybean oil will be increased to 850000 tons, an increase of 480000 tons over the previous year The new supply of soybean oil in the year will be 4.35 million tons, an increase of 800000 tons over the previous year The total consumption of soybean oil in the year is estimated to be 392 Million tons, an increase of 300000 tons over the previous year It is expected that the inventory will increase by 440000 tons at the end of the period, and the inventory consumption will increase to 38% from 29.1% last year The import volume has increased substantially, which leads to the oversupply of soybean oil market and a strong alarm With the increase of soybean pressing volume in the later stage, the coming into market of rapeseed and the change of national storage oil, the price of soybean oil will show a downward trend 4p4 (3) it is predicted that the situation of supply exceeding demand in soybean meal market will be eased slightly With the increase of soybean pressing volume, the output of soybean meal in 2002 / 03 is expected to increase by 970000 tons over the previous year, reaching 1579 However, due to the impact of SARS, the consumption of pork and poultry is not booming, and people choose to eat more light vegetables and fruits, while reducing the consumption of food outside, which will also reduce the demand for the breeding industry It is estimated that the annual feed consumption will be 14.5 million tons, an increase of 400000 tons over the previous year The market still shows a pattern of oversupply It is estimated that the export volume will be 900000 tons, and the total demand will be about 15.91 million tons, an increase of 310000 tons over the previous year At the end of the period, the inventory will be reduced by 110000 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio will be reduced from 9.1% to 8.2% of the previous year The price will fluctuate due to the impact of import volume and crush volume 4p4 soybean meal prices have risen sharply since the middle of March, mainly due to the high cost of soybean raw materials, the reduction of crushing volume caused by limited production of some enterprises, and the increase of demand for feed stimulated by large-scale egg purchase caused by SARS Some large-scale enterprises take the opportunity to raise prices and the short-term tight supply of soybean meal It is expected that the price rise will not last for long In 4p44 and 2002 / 03, the world soybean and soybean meal market supply was slightly greater than the demand The USDA raised the global soybean production forecast for four consecutive months According to the April supply and demand report, the global soybean output will reach 194 million tons in 2002 / 03, an increase of 9.7 million tons or 5.3% over the previous year As the world's largest producer, the United States has a total soybean output of 74.29 million tons due to drought, a decrease of 4.38 million tons over the previous year However, soybean production in Brazil and Argentina increased significantly compared with the previous year, of which Brazil is expected to increase production by 7.5 million tons and Argentina by 5 million tons The total output in South America will reach 86 million tons, surpassing that in the United States for the first time The increase in production in South America is enough to offset the reduction in production in the United States South America accounts for more than the United States in the world soybean production and marketing pattern South American exports are expected to reach 30.5 million tons, which will also surpass that of the United States 4p4 in April, the U.S lowered the U.S soybean inventory in 2002 / 03 again, which is expected to drop to 3.95 million tons (145 million bushels), a decrease of 1.71 million tons compared with the previous year, which is the lowest point in the past five years, which is also the reason to support the higher U.S soybean prices According to the U.S Department of agriculture survey, American soybean farmers will plant 29.6 million hectares of soybeans in 2003, 1% less than the previous year, the lowest year since 1998 It is expected that the soybean production in 2003 / 04 in the United States will be equal to or slightly less than that in the previous year, and the price will remain high In April, the U.S Department of agriculture cut the world consumption It is estimated that the world soybean demand in 2002 / 03 will be 194.1 million tons, an increase of 10.34 million tons over the previous year If considering that China's actual demand is lower than the U.S Department of agriculture's estimate, the world soybean demand is 190 million tons, and the supply is slightly greater than the demand It is expected that in the second half of this year, with the large number of South American soybeans listed, the price of soybeans in the international market will gradually decline From March to April, the U.S Department of agriculture reduced the world soybean meal production and demand for two consecutive years At the end of the period, the inventory increased, and the soybean meal market showed a pattern of oversupply It is estimated that the world soybean meal output in 2002 / 03 will be 131.78 million tons, an increase of 6.39 million tons or 5.1% over the previous year The world soybean meal demand is 131 million tons, the supply is slightly greater than the demand, and the annual carry over inventory is increased to 4.21 million tons It is expected that the soybean meal price level will be lower than the previous year 4p4 increased soybean oil output in April It is estimated that the world soybean oil output in 2002 / 03 will reach 30.6 million tons, an increase of 1.73 million tons compared with the previous year, annual consumption of 30.58 million tons, an increase of 2.02 million tons compared with the previous year, and ending inventory of 2.06 million tons, a decrease of 400000 tons compared with the previous year The supply and demand situation is tight, and the price level is expected to remain high International soybean and soybean oil prices fell in the fifth and first quarter of 4p4, while domestic soybean and soybean oil remained high, but soybean meal prices were weak 4p4 (1) international soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal prices all fell in the middle and last ten days of April 4p4, April 24, and the closing price of soybean contracts on the Chicago Board of trade fell to $603 / bushel in May Soybean contracts closed down at $605.3 a bushel in July Influenced by the rising soybean price in the United States and the increasing freight rate caused by the war between the United States and Israel, the U.S soybean CIF price has continued to rise since the middle of March As of April 15, the No.2 yellow soybean CIF price reached $250 / ton, an increase of $60 / ton compared with the same period last year, a decrease of $7 / ton compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of $10 / ton compared with the same period last month The CBOT price of 4p4 soybean oil also showed a downward trend On April 22, it explored a 10 day low In May, the soybean oil contract closed down 0.35 cents at 21.63 cents / pound Soybean oil closed 0.36 cents lower in July at 21.77 US cents per pound Since April 21, 4p4, the price of soybean meal in CBOT and DCE futures markets has both continued to fall As a result, the future market of soybean meal spot market is not optimistic On April 23, CBOT's July soybean contract closed 5.75 cents lower at 605.25 cents per bushel, and may soybean contract closed 7 cents lower at 603 cents per bushel Compared with the July contract and may contract on March 18, they have dropped 17 and 19 cents / bushel respectively Even meal market began to decline under the influence of CBOT, among which the decline of several major contracts in the 21st day was more than 60 yuan / ton, while the decline in the 22nd and 23rd days slowed down, and the decline of meal has been formed 4p4 (2) spot price of domestic soybean and soybean meal rose, soybean oil price