Analysis of the world soybean production and trade situation

Introduction: the rapid development of production From 1961 to 2000, soybean production in the world has been greatly developed In 2000, the world's soybean planting area was 73.44 million hectares, with a yield of 2206 kg / HA and a yield of 161.99 million tons, three times, two times and six times that of 1961, respectively In terms of sown area, in 1961, the sown area of soybeans in the United States and China was more than 10 million hectares, accounting for 46% and 42% of the sown area of soybeans in the world, respectively After 40 years of development, the soybean planting area in the United States has increased by 2.7 times, reaching 29.43 million hectares, accounting for 40% of the total soybean planting area in the world, while the soybean planting area in China has decreased by 10%, accounting for 12% of the total soybean planting area in the world Soybean yield per unit area in the world has been greatly developed in the past 40 years In 2000, the U.S soybean yield per unit area was 2561 kg / ha, ranking first in the world, followed by Brazil with 2400 kg / ha, Argentina with 2354 kg / ha, and China with only 1705 kg / ha, which is more and more different from the first three countries It is worth noting that the soybean yield in Brazil has kept increasing for 11 consecutive years since 1991 Unlike the United States and Argentina, Brazil's high yield does not rely on transgenic technology, but completely depends on agricultural technology progress In 2000, the U.S soybean output was 75.38 million tons, accounting for 47% of the world's total soybean output; Brazil was the second, 32.69 million tons, accounting for 20%; Argentina was 20.20 million tons, accounting for 12%; China was the fourth, 15.4 million tons, accounting for 10% There are several reasons for the rapid increase of soybean production in the world: 1 With the development of the world economy, population growth and the development of animal husbandry, oil extraction and processing industry, soybean consumption demand has increased dramatically In recent years, many countries have made new breakthroughs in the nutritional value and comprehensive development and utilization of soybeans With its high nutritional value and extensive use, soybeans have won the recognition of the world The consumption of industry, medicine and other industries has also increased rapidly According to FAO statistics, the world soybean consumption reached 160.08 million tons in 1999, an increase of 20% over 1995 2 Transgenic technology has brought a leap forward The U.S began to plant genetically modified soybeans around 1993 Since 1994, the U.S soybean production has set a new record year by year, rising from 59.24 million tons at that time to 75.34 million tons in 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 27.2% At present, the annual production of genetically modified soybeans in the United States has reached more than 50 million tons, close to 70% of its total production 3 There are many advantages in planting soybean It can not only nourish the land and rotate with other crops, but also increase the unit yield and exchange for foreign exchange In 1997, the United States exported 26.37 million tons of soybeans, with the exchange rate of US $7.5 billion; Brazil exported 8.34 million tons of soybeans, with the exchange rate of US $2.45 billion However, due to the price decline, in 1999, the United States exported 23.15 million tons of soybeans, with a foreign exchange of 4.56 billion US dollars; Brazil exported 8.92 million tons, with a foreign exchange of 1.59 billion US dollars With the rapid development of world soybean production, the volume of soybean trade has been expanding In 1999, the total export volume of world soybean reached 40.31 million tons, 9.5 times of that in 1961 The United States is the world's largest soybean exporter, accounting for about 57% of the total exports, followed by Brazil, which accounts for 22%, and China, which ranks seventh At present, China has become the largest soybean importer in the world According to FAO statistics, China imported 6.67 million tons of soybeans in 1999, accounting for 15% of the world's total soybeans imports, Japan and the Netherlands each accounted for 12%, and the European Union is also a major soybean import region In recent years, the international soybean market price continues to decline The CBOT price in the United States has dropped from 2821 yuan / ton in May 1997 to 1504 yuan / ton in August 2001, a decrease of 47% Although the international market price keeps falling, American farmers still have a special interest in soybean production The continuous expansion of planting area is mainly related to the price support policy of the United States Price support is the core of American modern agricultural policy The price support organization is the commodity credit corporation (CCC) established by the U.S government In 1996, the U.S Congress approved the new federal agricultural improvement and reform act of 1996 CCC adopted "non recourse market support loan" and "insufficient loan subsidy (LDPs)" to support the price of agricultural products and farmers' income The average loan rate of non recourse market support loan is 5.26 USD / bushel, which is higher than that of corn and wheat This policy enables farmers to get more market loan surplus ratio when the market price falls lower than the loan ratio (5.26 USD / bushel) The difference between the loan rate and the repayment rate is borne by the government Before 1992, there was no soybean subsidy in the United States, but by 2000, it had reached 2.5 billion US dollars Therefore, we can think about the question whether the price support policy of the United States has caused market distortion? Is this in line with the spirit of WTO? The United States bears the risk of loss for farmers to a large extent, so for other countries without subsidies, is trade competition fair? The future market is not optimistic Based on the information of USDA and other relevant departments, it is estimated that the world soybean output in 2001 / 2002 will reach a historical record of 180.67 million tons due to the substantial increase of soybean supply in South America, about 11% higher than that in the previous year Influenced by the relatively backward growth of consumption demand and other factors, the contradiction between supply and demand in the world soybean market has expanded, and the inventory has increased Under the influence of the above factors, it is expected that soybean prices in the international market will not recover in 2001 / 2002 At present, the world soybean supply situation mainly has the following characteristics: 1 The contradiction between supply and demand in the United States is prominent As the soybean export to China has almost stopped for two consecutive months, the soybean inventory in the United States has reached the highest level of 9.4 million tons in 11 years, and the domestic market price has continued to fall, reaching the lowest point in 30 years The USDA report in October has cut the soybean price range by 50 cents, or 3.90-4.70 USD / bushel Farm prices also fell from $4.63 per bushel in 1999 to $4.55 in 2000 and to $4.3 in 2001 2 As the agricultural act of the United States makes soybean loan subsidy higher than corn, it is expected that American farmers will continue to sow soybean in 2002 In contrast to soybeans, the inventory of corn in 2001 / 2002 in the United States has decreased by about 12.25 million tons compared with the previous year 3 Soybean production in Brazil, Argentina and the United States is expected to reach a record of 41.5 million tons, 27 million tons and 79.12 million tons in 2001 / 02 Due to the rapid increase of soybean production in Brazil and Argentina, and Brazil is a non GMO soybean, some export market shares of the United States in the EU have been replaced by South America It is estimated that soybean exports from South America will surpass those from the United States in 2001 In other words, South American soybeans still have a comparative advantage in competition with subsidized American soybeans without price subsidies Once the US price subsidy policy changes, the world soybean trade pattern will change 4 The events of September 11 may cause economic recession in the United States and even in the world If the U.S dollar depreciates, it will be beneficial to soybean exports But shipping costs on Pacific routes are likely to rise, so there is little impact on soybean supply 5 From the perspective of South America's sowing situation, Brazil and Argentina continue to increase their sowing areas, and it is expected that the world soybean production will continue to increase in 2002 However, if China, a big importer, reduces its imports, in terms of international trade theory, it will be more favorable for the recovery of China's domestic market price, and for the prices of other countries, it will be the influencing factor of the decline (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: