Analysis of World Soybean Production and Trade Situation

Introduction: Tang Yanli, Analysis Office of information center of the Ministry of agriculture, I rapid development of production From 1961 to 2000, soybean production in the world has been greatly developed In 2000, the world soybean planting area was 73.44 million hectares, the per unit yield was 2206 kg / ha, and the yield was 161.99 million tons, three times, two times and six times of that in 1961, respectively From the perspective of sown area, in 1961, the sown area of soybeans in the United States and China were over 10 million tons, accounting for 46% and 42% of the sown area of soybeans in the world, respectively After 40 years of development, the sown area of soybeans in the United States increased by 2.7 times, reaching 29.43 million hectares, accounting for 40% of the total sown area of soybeans in the world, while the sowed area of soybeans in China decreased by 10% About 12% of the world soybean planting area In the past 40 years, the yield per unit of the world has been greatly developed In 2000, the yield per unit of the United States was 2561 kg / ha, ranking first in the world, followed by Brazil 2400 kg / ha, Argentina 2354 kg / ha, and China only 1705 kg / ha The gap between the United States and the first three countries is growing It is worth noting that the soybean yield in Brazil has kept increasing for 11 consecutive years since 1991 Unlike the United States and Argentina, Brazil's high yield does not rely on transgenic technology, but completely depends on the progress of agricultural technology In 2000, the U.S soybean output was 75.38 million tons, accounting for 47% of the world's total soybean output, Brazil was the second, 32.69 million tons, accounting for 20%, Argentina was 20.20 million tons, accounting for 12%, and China was the fourth, 15.4 million tons, accounting for 10% There are several reasons for the rapid increase of soybean production in the world: 1 With the development of world economy, the growth of population and the development of animal husbandry, oil extraction and processing industry, the demand for soybean consumption has increased dramatically In modern times, many countries have made new breakthroughs in the nutritional value and comprehensive development and utilization of soybean With its nutritional value and extensive use, soybean has won the recognition of the world, and the consumption of industry, medicine and other industries has also increased rapidly According to FAO statistics, the world soybean consumption reached 160.08 million tons in 1999, an increase of 20% over 1995 2 Transgenic technology has brought a leap forward The U.S began to plant genetically modified soybeans around 1993 Since 1994, the U.S soybean production has set a new record year by year, rising from 59.24 million tons of total soybean production at that time to 75.34 million tons in 2000, with an average annual growth rate of 27.2% At present, the annual production of genetically modified soybeans in the United States is more than 50 million tons, close to 70% of its total production 3 There are many advantages in planting soybean It can not only fertilize the land, but also rotate with other crops to increase the per unit yield It can also be exported for exchange In 1997, the U.S exported 26.37 million tons of soybeans, worth 7.5 billion US dollars, Brazil exported 8.34 million tons of soybeans, worth 2.45 billion US dollars However, due to the price decline, in 1999, the United States exported 23.15 million tons of soybeans, with a foreign exchange of 4.56 billion US dollars, Brazil exported 8.92 million tons, with a foreign exchange of 1.59 billion US dollars （2） With the rapid development of world soybean production, the world soybean trade has been expanding In 1999, the world soybean export reached 40.31 million tons, 9.5 times of that in 1961 The United States is the world's largest soybean exporter, accounting for about 57% of the total exports, followed by Brazil 22%, and China 7 At present, China has become the largest soybean importer in the world According to FAO statistics, China imported 6.67 million tons of soybeans in 1999, accounting for 15% of the world's total soybeans imports, followed by Japan and the Netherlands, 12%, and the European Union is also the main soybean import region （3） The international soybean price keeps falling In recent years, the international soybean market price keeps falling The CBOT price in the United States has dropped from 2821 yuan / ton in May 1997 to 1504 yuan / ton in August 2001, a drop of 47% Although the international price keeps falling, why do American farmers prefer soybeans and expand the planting area? Mainly related to the price support policy of the United States Price support is the core of American modern agricultural policy The price support organization is the commodity credit corporation (CCC) established by the U.S government In 1996, the U.S Congress approved the new federal agricultural improvement and reform act of 1996 CCC adopted "non recourse market support loan" and "insufficient loan subsidy (LDPs)" to support the price of agricultural products and farmers' income The average loan rate of non recourse market support loan is 5.26 USD / bushel, which is higher than that of corn and wheat This policy enables farmers to get more market loan surplus ratio when the market price falls lower than the loan ratio (5.26 USD / bushel) The difference between the loan rate and the repayment rate is borne by the government Before 1992, there was no soybean subsidy in the United States, but by 2000, it had reached 2.5 billion US dollars So we can also think about whether the price support policy of the United States has caused market distortion? Is this in line with the spirit of WTO? The United States bears the risk of loss for farmers to a large extent, so for other countries without subsidies, is trade competition fair? （4） Based on the information of USDA and other relevant departments, it is estimated that the world soybean output in 2001 / 02 will reach a historical record of 180.67 million tons due to the substantial increase of soybean supply in South America, about 11% higher than the previous year Influenced by the relatively backward growth of consumption demand and other factors, the contradiction between supply and demand in the world soybean market has expanded, and the inventory has increased Under the influence of the above factors, it is predicted that the soybean price in the international market will be difficult to recover in 2001 / 02 Estimated world soybean production unit: 10000 tons annual World Brazil Argentina China 1997 14441 7318 2639 1100 1474 1998 15996 7460 3131 1873 1515 1999 15737222 3090 2000 1425 2000 16199 7538 3269 2020 1542001 18067 7912 4150 2700 1520 11.5% 5.0% 27.0% 33.7% - 1.3% note: 1, 2000 The data before the year is FAO statistical data 2 The data in 2001 are from the report of USDA in October At present, the world soybean supply situation mainly has the following characteristics: 1 The contradiction between supply and demand in the United States is prominent As the export of soybean to China has almost stopped for two consecutive months, the soybean stock in the United States has reached the highest level in 11 years 940 Ten thousand tons, the domestic market price continues to fall, has reached the lowest point in 30 years The USDA report in October has cut the soybean price range by 50 cents, from $3.90/bushel to $4.70/bushel The farm price also dropped from $4.63 per bushel in 1999 to $4.55 in 2000, and to $4.3 in 2001 2 However, due to the U.S agricultural act which makes soybean loan subsidy higher than corn, it is expected that American farmers will continue to plant soybean in 2002 In contrast to soybeans, the U.S corn inventory in 2001 / 02 has declined by about 12.25 million tons 3 Soybean production in Brazil, Argentina and the United States is expected to reach a record of 41.5 million tons, 27 million tons and 79.12 million tons in 2001 / 02 Due to the rapid growth of soybean production in Brazil and Argentina, as well as the quality of Brazil's non GM soybeans, some of the U.S export market share in the EU has now shifted to South America It is estimated that soybean exports from South America will surpass those from the United States in 2001 In other words, South American soybeans still have a comparative advantage in competition with subsidized American soybeans without price subsidies Once the US price subsidy policy changes, the world soybean trade pattern will change 4 9.11 event may lead to a recession in the U.S and even the global economy If the U.S dollar depreciates, it will be beneficial to soybean exports But shipping costs on Pacific routes are likely to rise, so there is little impact on soybean supply 5 From the perspective of South America's sowing situation, Brazil and Argentina continue to increase their planting area, and it is expected that the world soybean production will continue to increase in 2002 However, if China, a big importer, reduces its imports, it will be more favorable for the recovery of domestic market prices in terms of international trade theory, and will be a negative factor for the decline of prices in other countries.