Analysis of the situation of Brazil's soybean industry

Introduction: Brazil's real devaluation coincides with another record high soybean production in 2000 / 01, and Brazil's soybean exports have benefited a lot from the devaluation of the currency The U.S Department of agriculture analyzes the main reason why farmers in Brazil plant soybeans is for export market, because corn and cotton are mainly consumed in domestic circulation During March October of 2000 / 01 market year, the exchange rate of real against US dollar in agricultural products market, especially soybean market, depreciated by 20-30% For export products, such as soybean, the return on capital increased significantly, but there was no competitive advantage over other domestic commodities The USDA believes that there is strong demand in the international market Due to the strong momentum of the US dollar, Brazilian soybean growers have sold a large number of soybeans in the export market, with extraordinary gains At the same time, corn and cotton growers have suffered a sharp decline in prices At home, cotton and corn prices have fallen, and domestic production has exceeded domestic demand
Generally speaking, this experience will reverse the intention of producers to sow in the future, and lay the foundation for the large-scale transfer of the planting area from the unattractive agricultural products to the attractive agricultural products It is precisely because of this role that farmers make the transformative decision to sow the crops in 2001 / 02 The return of corn and cotton in real terms is certainly less than that in US dollars In order to calculate the attractiveness of soybean, the planting area of soybean has expanded rapidly Brazil's soybean planting in 2001 / 02 started from scratch, and the planting intention in spring was also strong, which began to appear in October, and the sowing ended in late December Brazil's soybean planting is 99% complete by Christmas, the government said A recent seeding survey from Brazil's government and oilseed industry showed that, to be precise, farmers were once again confirmed to track strong market signals favorable to soybean exports in a timely manner, planting record soybeans According to the data provided by the Brazilian government, it is expected that the planting area of soybeans will increase by 10-12% this year, while that of corn and cotton will decrease by 11% and 14% respectively Rjz USDA of the U.S Department of agriculture currently forecasts that Brazil's soybean planting area will reach a record of 15.65 million hectares in 2001 / 02, an increase of 0.15 million hectares compared with last month's forecast, and an increase of 1.68 million hectares or 12% compared with last year's forecast Brazil's total soybean production is currently forecast to reach a record 42.5 million tons, up 1 million tons from last month's forecast and 10% from last year's forecast Since the beginning of the planting season in early October, the total accumulated rainfall in the main soybean producing areas of Brazil has reached a record Showers cover a wide range, although rainfall may vary from place to place Generally speaking, from October to December, at least 8-12 inches of rainfall occurred in the main production areas in the south, and 12-16 inches of rainfall occurred in the Midwest, East and northeast states Up to now, the weather type is basically ideal, and the early growth and development of crops are relatively normal The total amount of rainfall in the main production areas during October to December is relatively low, but the accumulated humidity can meet or exceed the needs of crop growth up to now RJz