Analysis on the situation of meat market in China

Introduction: Recently, experts from the scientific and technological literature and information center of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences analyzed the meat market in China: 1 Looking back on the meat situation in 2001 (1) the steady growth of meat production; 2) the steady growth of meat production in 2001 According to the statistics of animal husbandry departments of 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government (except Tibet), the total output of meat in China from January to September was 48.599 million tons, up 4.7% year on year Among them, 32.095 million tons of pork, 3.4% year-on-year growth; 4.012 million tons of beef, 3.5% year-on-year growth; 2.081 million tons of mutton, 9.7% year-on-year growth; 9.088 million tons of poultry, 12.6% year-on-year growth It is estimated that the total meat output in 2001 increased by 3% compared with the previous year, reaching about 63 million tons (2) the number of livestock on hand has increased steadily, the number of livestock on hand has maintained a rapid growth rate, and the proportion of sows has declined In the first three quarters of 2001, the total number of pigs on hand in China reached 464.66 million, an increase of 1.1% year on year The number of cattle on hand was 129.758 million, down 0.6% year on year There were 323.849 million sheep on hand, up 2.4% year on year In the third quarter of 2001, 39.344 million fertile sows were on the stock, an increase of 1.3% year on year, accounting for 8.5% of the total number of pigs on the stock, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in the first quarter and 0.2 percentage points lower than that in the second quarter, which is at a reasonable level (3) the benefit of pig industry is lower than that of the previous year, but it is still profitable In 2001, the overall benefit of pig industry in China was lower than that of the previous year due to the impact of corn price rise From January to December 2001, the average ratio of pig to food in China was 5:30, down 12.8% from the same period of last year, and the average ratio of pig to food was 3:91, the same as the same period of last year However, the pig industry is still profitable According to the sampling survey of 11 provinces in August, such as Hebei, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Shandong, Henan, Hubei and Sichuan, the average cost of raising a pig by a farmer is 375 yuan and the profit is 73 yuan (4) except poultry, the prices of major meat varieties in China are higher than that of the same period of last year From January to December 2001, the retail prices of pork and live pigs in China have a stable trend, slightly declined in the first half of the year, and began to rise in the second half of the year The overall level is 5.3% and 5.2% higher than that of the same period of last year, respectively 2 From January to December 2001, the retail price of beef and mutton in China showed a rising trend, with the overall level 3.8% and 5.3% higher than that of the same period last year 3 From January to December 2001, the retail price of chicken in China showed a small fluctuation and continued to decline, with an average retail price of 9.67 yuan / kg, down 1.7% compared with the same period last year (5) the export of meat is in a good situation The export of pork and beef has increased substantially The total net export of live pigs, pork and beef has reached US $277.92 million, with a good foreign exchange earning situation Meat imports have declined Except mutton, the export is generally larger than the import 2 The meat situation in 2002 predicted that (1) the overall level of pork production will be better than that in 2001, and the import and export may increase, but the range is not large The average price of piglets in January December 2001 is 8.7 yuan / kg, 0.58% higher than that in the same period of last year This shows that pig farming is still profitable, and farmers have a high enthusiasm for pig breeding With the coming of the Spring Festival, the price of pork in China has risen and the price of corn has continued to decline The price of piglets in China may rise again The situation of pig production in 2002 will be in 2001 China's live pig and pork products are mainly exported to Hong Kong, Russia and Macao The pork market in Hong Kong and Macao is relatively stable China's pork market share in Russia is not stable because of the strong competition between Brazilian pork and American pork It is predicted that China's pork export will still have a certain growth rate in 2002, but the growth rate is not large In 2002, China's pork import may have increased, but the range will not be too large This is mainly because the traditional consumption habit of Chinese residents is to eat fresh meat, which limits the market of large quantities of frozen pork imported from abroad In addition, the quality of pork in the international market is good but the price is high The imported pork is mainly used in high-end restaurants in big cities, and the demand is limited (2) the output of beef and mutton continues to grow, the import and export is expected to increase, and the export growth is not large The demand for beef and mutton in the domestic market continues to increase, especially the price of veal and mutton continues to rise, which promotes the rapid development of beef and mutton production in China In addition, the production of beef and mutton is less affected by the fluctuation of grain price It is predicted that the production of beef and mutton will continue to increase in 2002 In 2001, China's beef was mainly exported to Hong Kong and Egypt, and mutton export markets were mainly concentrated in Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia As there is still a certain gap between the quality of beef products in China and the international standards, the market vacuum of EU, which has been hit by "mad cow disease", has not been filled by a large number of beef products in China It is predicted that the export growth of beef and mutton will not be too large in 2002 Due to the low labor cost and low price of beef and mutton in China, the production of beef and mutton in China still has obvious comparative advantage after China's accession to the world trade organization, although the price of imported beef and mutton is further reduced due to the reduction of tariff Therefore, it is expected that the import of beef and mutton will increase in 2002, but the range will not be too large (3) chicken production is expected to continue to increase, but export growth is limited The average price of broilers in August November 2001 is 2.2 yuan per chicken, 4.4% higher than the average price in January July 2001 The rise in the price of broilers shows that the expectation of broiler breeders is optimistic It is expected that the chicken production in China will continue to increase in the first half of 2002 Due to the influence of imperfect quarantine system and poor implementation of meat standards, although the demand for poultry meat in the international market is booming, it is expected that the absolute quantity of chicken export in 2002 will not increase significantly In addition, the impact of tariff reduction after China's accession to the world trade organization may increase chicken imports in 2002 3 China's accession to the world trade organization will bring new opportunities to China's meat production The advantages of China's meat industry are as follows: 1 Due to the low labor cost, China's main meat varieties have obvious price competitive advantages; 2 After China's accession to the world trade organization, the price of corn, the main feedstuff raw material, may decline to some extent, leading to China's feedstuff cost and price Therefore, it can further improve the cost advantage and competitive advantage of China's meat products However, there are some problems in the process of meat production in China, such as the quality and quality of meat products are far behind the international standards; the health and quarantine system is not perfect; the processing, low freezing facilities and transportation equipment are backward; the disordered competition among meat producers, etc., which affect the exertion of the comparative advantage of meat in China In order to give full play to the advantages of China's meat production and improve the competitiveness of meat products in the international market, the first is to improve and perfect China's meat standard system and speed up the construction of "disease free areas"; the second is to continue to promote the adjustment of animal husbandry industrial structure, give full play to China's resource advantages and improve the rate of improved breeds of livestock and poultry; the third is to develop the meat processing industry and speed up the cold storage and transportation industry To develop and improve the added value of animal products; to increase the investment in animal husbandry science and technology and promotion; to improve the production efficiency and product quality of animal husbandry; to continue to promote the industrialized management of meat and establish a new meat production and marketing system; and to strengthen the information service of animal husbandry.