Analysis on the situation of corn purchase market in Northeast China

Introduction: During the spring ploughing of corn in 2001, the Northeast suffered serious drought, which affected the corn planting and gradually increased the psychological expectation of the reduction of production in that year In June, the weather conditions in the Northeast gradually improved, and the rain fell everywhere, and the expectation of reduction of production was restrained It is estimated that the corn output of the three provinces (Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning) in 2001 will reach 33.14 million tons, according to about 65% of the commercial value According to the general estimation of yield, this year, the newly added commodity volume of corn in Northeast China is about 21.54 million tons, while the domestic corn output is expected to be 112 million tons, and the northeast corn output accounts for nearly one third of the domestic output, It can be seen that northeast China, as the main corn producing area, occupies an important position in the domestic corn market Today, Northeast China is still in the acquisition stage Understanding the acquisition situation of three provinces in Northeast China is very helpful to predict the domestic corn price trend in the later period The specific situation is as follows: General situation: up to the beginning of the listing of new grain, the price of corn in Northeast China has been in a downward trend, the market purchase price has been flat and low, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell corn has been affected, and the number of purchase enterprises in the early stage is obviously insufficient Recently, with the increase of the purchasing power of state-owned grain sector and some non-state-owned grain enterprises, the market price of corn has been rising steadily In addition, the need to realize the annual pass has changed the farmers' psychology of reluctant to sell, and they have taken the initiative to sell the surplus grain in their hands Jilin Province: the price and quality of corn purchased by Jilin Province is 0.40-0.42 yuan / jin (800-840 yuan / ton, 22% water content) in the areas along the line, and 0.37-0.38 yuan / jin (740-760 yuan / Jin, 24% water content) in the non areas along the line In 2001 / 02, the number of newly produced corn purchased by the state-owned grain Department of Jilin province increased significantly compared with the same period of last year According to the statistics of the grain Department of Jilin Province, by the first ten days of January, the number of newly purchased corn in Jilin province had reached 9.97 million tons, an increase of 3.225 million tons compared with the same period of last year, an increase of 47.8% Among them, 7.25 million tons of newly produced corn were purchased, an increase of 3.405 million tons over the same period last year, with an increase rate of about 46.9% Heilongjiang Province: in recent years, the average purchase price of new corn farmers in the central region of Heilongjiang (Harbin) is 0.37-0.38 yuan / jin (740-760 yuan / ton, 28% water content), and the average purchase price of new corn farmers in the western region (Qiqihar) is 0.35-0.37 yuan / jin (700-740 yuan / ton, 28% water content) Liaoning Province: the average purchase price of new corn in central Liaoning (Shenyang) is 0.38-0.39 yuan / jin (760-780 yuan / ton, water content 23% - 25%), the higher purchase price is 0.40 yuan / jin (800 yuan / ton), and the average warehousing price of state-owned grain department is 0.40-0.41 yuan / jin (800-820 yuan / ton) Since January, affected by the bad weather conditions and the decrease of farmers' enthusiasm for grain sales, the number of corn purchased by Liaoning grain sector has decreased recently Later Outlook: under the joint effect of factors such as stimulating consumption during the Spring Festival, favorable sales areas, ordering by enterprises and special corn reserves in countries with large purchase volume, the corn purchase price in most parts of Northeast China remains stable, with a slight increase in some areas, which will promote the price of domestic corn market in the later period At present, more than half of the state-owned grain departments in Jilin province have ordered and purchased corn for special storage, and the collection and storage tasks of the two provinces, Longjiang and Liaoning, are also progressing smoothly The enthusiasm of the grain departments for purchasing has declined However, with the approaching of the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of the farmers in Northeast China to sell corn for cash will increase day by day The pattern of the contrast between the decline of purchasing enthusiasm and the expectation of farmers' selling positively, thus forming a pressure on the quantity and price of corn purchased in the later stage In terms of the current domestic corn market situation, even if the price in the northeast of the production area falls, it is expected that the decline will not be too deep, which has little impact on the overall domestic corn market.