Analysis on the situation and market of rapeseed production and purchase in Anhui Province

Introduction: UQC 1 The production of rapeseed in Anhui UQC Anhui is one of the main production areas of rapeseed in China In recent years, the planting area has stabilized at about 16 million mu, and the normal annual output is about 1.8 million tons In 2002, due to the continuous rainy harvest period, the output of rapeseed is only 1.47 million tons, but it still ranks the first in China In 2003, the area of rapeseed is still 16 million mu Due to the heavy rain and low temperature in this spring, if there is no major disaster in the later period, the output will reach 1.7 million tons, which is close to the highest level in history It is estimated that the annual output of rapeseed in Hefei will be 270000-280000 tons, of which more than 50% are "double low" rapeseed, with normal oil content of more than 38% and good quality According to the current growth situation, rape grows well in some areas in the south, with more than 50% of the growth already sandwiched Due to the influence of rainy and low-temperature climate in the north, it has just entered the full bloom period Only from the perspective of plants, rape branches in some areas in the North are not many, with fewer knots, and the overall growth is not as good as that in the same period last year UQC 2 The supply and demand of rapeseed market UQC Anhui Province has an annual output of about 1.8 million tons of rapeseed In addition to meeting the needs of the oil processing enterprises in Anhui Province, more than 60% of the rapeseed still flows out Every year, after the launch of rapeseed, merchants from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Sichuan and other places gather in Anhui, which is convenient for water, road and railway transportation More than 80% of the rapeseed is transported to the oil plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang by car Generally, there is only about two months from the launch of rapeseed to the end of the acquisition, and the overall situation is in short supply UQC 3 The main factors influencing the price of domestic rapeseed UQC 1 The increase of total output: the simultaneous increase of international and domestic rapeseed output in 2003 will inevitably affect the domestic oil supply Regardless of the impact of the international price of rapeseed, only the harvest of domestic summer rapeseed will make the price of rapeseed decline UQC 2 The influence of soybean oil on the price of rapeseed oil: in 2002, China imported 11.31 million tons of soybeans and 870000 tons of soybean oil In 2003, China is expected to import more than 12.5 million tons of soybeans from the United States and South America, and the number of soybean oil imports is also increased compared with the previous year UQC 3 The effect of palm oil on vegetable oil price: in 2002, China imported 2.22 million tons of palm oil It is expected that the import volume will be further enlarged in 2003 At present, the cost price of palm oil to the port is only about 4600-4700 yuan / ton, and the price difference between palm oil and vegetable oil is between 1100-1200 yuan / ton With the rise of temperature and the increase of palm oil use, there will be a huge pressure on the existing vegetable oil price The effect of UQC 4, rapeseed meal and other protein feed prices The influence of other uncertain factors, such as war, major natural disasters, etc UQC 4 Trend forecast: UQC's price is still around 5850-5900 yuan / ton due to the small supply of vegetable oil in the market With the launch of new rapeseed, if the weather is good later this year, we expect that the price of vegetable oil in the later period will fall to 5400-5500 yuan / ton UqC