Analysis on the price trend of grain market (6.9)

OA show ('918 '); in recent years, the national grain situation is very good, the grain harvest is 5 years in a row, especially with the national policies and measures to support grain production in place one after another, the grain output continues to increase, and the effective supply of grain is increasing year by year At the same time, due to a variety of factors, the speed of domestic grain consumption has not been able to keep pace with the growth of grain production, resulting in a phased and structural surplus in the total grain output of the country, forming a buyer's market, and the price of grain market is also gradually falling According to the market forecast of grain and oil market price monitoring point at the end of March in Heze City, Shandong Province The market price of wheat and corn in Heze City and its surrounding areas has reached a new low for nearly six years in March, after the pressure in February and breaking down; the market price of Japonica Rice has stopped falling and stabilized for nearly two months after a step-by-step continuous decline; only soybean is the only one that shows its own strength and has been climbing in the near future In the past four years, the wheat market price has dropped 2.33 times from its historical high to its current low In different stages, the price of wheat market dropped sharply to 0.98 yuan per kilogram from the historical high of 1.96 yuan in May 1996 to 0.98 yuan in June 1997 After the introduction of the protection price stimulated by the policy, it rebounded to 1.20 yuan and stabilized rapidly in July It lasted for 19 months until March 1999 It fluctuated within the range of 8% of the price level, and operated stably in the upper limit half of the time In April 1999, due to the influence of inventory pressure and policy (order and protection price combined), the wheat market price fell below the original operation track and fell again at the end of June, and stabilized at 1.o0 yuan This price is exactly the low point reached in the crash of 1997 After six months of stable operation and just entering the new millennium, the wheat market price broke the silence of half a year, once again probe downward, accelerated the decline in mid to late March and reached a new low in the past six years The background of this decline is the implementation of new quality standards in the country, the reduction of the purchase scope of protection price, the selling of aged grain, inferior grain and seasonal decline What about the future market? We analyze: the wheat market price still has room to go down before the new grain goes on the market But the range is limited It is expected that the future market will stabilize and gradually pick up after the next exploration Its main basis has three: first, from the basic point of view of the aftermarket The main factors that affect the recent continuous decline of wheat market price are: (1) the huge stock pressure of grain enterprises, the contradiction between supply and demand is still very prominent; (2) because the production season has arrived, most of the production materials needed by farmers need to be sold in exchange for grain Generally, grain is sold in a centralized way from April to May every year, and the more the market price falls, the more it is sold, forming a strong market pressure (3) The structure of grain inventory is not reasonable Under the buyer's market, the processing enterprises and grain consuming units usually order by sale Due to the warmer weather, the finished grain is not suitable for storage, and the consumption is fading, the processing enterprises will not increase the inventory in a large amount, and the purchasing power of the market is further weakened, resulting in the serious overstock of the inventory of grain enterprises The factors that restrain the further decline are: (1) the total output of summer grain will decrease this year (2) The impact on China's accession to the WTO has been partially digested (3) At present, the price of wheat is lower than the production cost of farmers If it falls again, it will seriously dampen farmers' enthusiasm for grain production 2、 From the perspective of policy, we can see the future market Factors contributing to the decline: (1) the newly implemented national wheat quality standards, with the improvement of relative indicators, will still produce the expected decline in the market price of wheat (2) The state will narrow the scope of protection price acquisition and implement high quality and good price Low quality and low price will bring heavy pressure on traditional varieties and old stocks in production areas (3) Selling aged grain and inferior grain at a low price will seriously impact the stable operation of wheat prices in the domestic market (4) Because last year, the state adopted the combination of purchase price and protection price It is said that the protection price will also be lowered this year, which will definitely push the wheat market price down further Policy supporting factors: (1) relevant policies urge farmers to strengthen the adjustment of wheat variety structure, increase the planting proportion of high-quality varieties of summer grain this year, and it is expected that the overall quality of new grain will rise, which is conducive to the favorable market price (2) The state has narrowed the scope of protection price acquisition As a wheat variety, it mainly cancels the spring wheat in the northeast and south of China Although it has an impact on the main winter wheat production area, it will not be too large (3) Price policy will have an impact on the market price of wheat According to the current market situation, considering from the perspective of taking into account the three factors, the state will not substantially adjust the protection purchase price, which will play a certain role in raising the wheat market price (4) Last year, the state added 50 billion jin of new storage capacity Although it did not bring obvious effect to the whole wheat market during the first and second batch of grain loading tasks, new storage and new grain loading will definitely have a significant impact in the future or in part To sum up, there is still room for the market price to fall and rise However, considering that some stimulus factors have been partially digested in March, the decline of wheat in the current o.80 yuan should be slowed down or stabilized However, due to the continuous decline of the market and the pressure of selling, the price of 0.70 yuan will not be excluded before the listing of new grains Once again, it is close to the price of corn If you fall sharply, you will draw back The grain price is sensitive to the macro policy If there is no significant factor, the wheat market price is expected to pick up slightly in the second half of the year, and it is expected to run in the range of 0.80-1.00 yuan ZTM (author:)