Analysis on the price trend of corn in China

Introduction: Recently, the price of corn in China continues to go down Compared with the highest price in July, the drop per ton is nearly 100 yuan The current price is 1130-1140 yuan / ton for Dalian port, 1120 yuan / ton for Jinzhou port and 1230 yuan / ton for Qinhuangdao port At the same time, the delivery price of grain enterprises in Northeast China has also been greatly reduced In some areas of Jilin Province, the delivery price of corn car board is 1040-1050 yuan / ton, that of Heilongjiang car board is about 1020 yuan / ton, that of warehouses in West Liaoning and Chifeng of Inner Mongolia is 1040-1050 yuan / ton, that of Guangdong is 1220-1230 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai is 1230-1240 yuan / ton In general, no matter in the production area or in the sales area Area, the price falls between 80-100 yuan / ton compared with the previous period The main reasons for the recent decline of corn prices are as follows: first, the grain purchasing and selling enterprises in the production area are selling in advance It is allowed by the state to sell the old grain in stock at the current market price higher than the purchase price of the new grain before the purchase of the new grain After the autumn harvest, the same amount of new grain will be replenished and put into storage At the current market price, most of the existing stocks of grain enterprises in the production area can't reach the down price level, but some grain enterprises think that the purchase price of corn will not be too high this year, and the overall cost will not reach the current market price if the corn is collected for drying and storage Now it is profitable to sell old grain and replenish new grain after autumn Therefore, they have adopted the method of blending and flushing to sell the aged grains first, resulting in an increase in the quantity of corn available on the market and a decrease in the price Second, the new corn in North China and Huang Huai Region is about to be or has already been listed, which undoubtedly has a great impact on the corn in Northeast China Some manufacturers began to take materials nearby Although the water content of the newly listed corn is on the high side, it's OK to buy it now and consume the feed immediately Third, no matter the grain enterprises in the production area or the consumer manufacturers in the sales area, according to the previous practice, the price of new grain will not be too high at the beginning of its listing Therefore, at this time, when the grain enterprises in the production area are eager to sell their stocks and the producers in the sales area hold the money to wait and see, the price is naturally depressed Fourth, the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the corn market is so great that the heads of grain enterprises in production areas have no idea In order not to take too much risk and do not want to keep too much inventory, so the only months before China's accession to the WTO were sold off The author had discussed this topic with several heads of grain enterprises, and they all showed their concerns in this regard, so they all adopted the strategy of keeping as little inventory as possible, rather than taking the risk of a sharp drop in prices after China's accession to the WTO If an enterprise has 10000 tons of existing inventory, it will be OK to keep 3000 tons at most before entering WTO The extra 7000 tons will be discarded before entering WTO These are the main reasons for the continuous decline of corn price Comprehensive analysis of all aspects of the factors, although corn prices are currently straight down, but in the following period of time, it is still possible for corn prices to soar again First of all, the state has adjusted the planting structure The planting area of corn has been greatly reduced At the same time, it has suffered from serious drought, and the per unit yield of corn has declined Therefore, the total yield of corn in China will be greatly reduced this year In 2000, the reduction rate of grain planting area was relatively large, 9.4 million mu less than that of the previous year, and 50 million mu less than that of last year, which reduced the total area of grain crops in China to below 1.65 billion mu Historically, such a large reduction has never been achieved The biggest reduction is wheat, early rice and maize This year, China has suffered another drought for the third consecutive year According to the preliminary statistics by the middle of July, the area of crops affected by drought and flood is 260 million mu, of which the area of crop yield is over 34 million mu Affected by the reduction of planting area and disasters, this year's grain production in China has been reduced by a large margin Among them, the planting area of corn has been reduced by about 10% compared with the previous year, and the unit yield has been reduced by nearly 20% compared with the previous year due to the severe drought However, in 2000, due to the severe drought in China, the output of corn was 22 million tons lower than that of the previous year It can be said that since the national harvest in 1998, the three consecutive years of drought in China have resulted in corn failure, combined with the reduction of planting area, the total output has been reduced year by year, in addition to exports, the domestic corn supply has been greatly reduced, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand is quietly changing The basic balance of supply and demand or tight supply should be the mainstream of the domestic corn market in the next period Features Secondly, the limited supply of grain and farmers' reluctance to sell may lead to the overall increase of corn market price Due to the disaster in 2000, the surplus grain in the hands of farmers was extremely limited, and it had been basically sold before the spring ploughing this year In the first half of this year, the rising price of corn will increase farmers' psychology of reluctant to sell, hoping to sell limited grain at a good price, so there may be a phenomenon of reluctant to sell From the end of November to the beginning of December every year, when the Northeast production area enters into the peak season of acquisition, if the peak season is not prosperous, the acquisition is in a deadlock, the market supply is broken, and the opportunity for the overall recovery of corn price appears Third, after August, some favorable factors of corn market did not restrain the decline of corn price in the early stage, and its role has not been fully played These favorable factors include: entering the peak season of feed consumption in the second half of the year; the Japanese government lifting the import restrictions on China's poultry and egg commodities; COFCO and Kyrgyzstan grain two major groups bidding for corn export 3.6-3.7 million tons Although these factors have not had enough impact on the corn market before, the impact is likely to become more and more obvious in the following period of time Recently, it has been reported that the corn of Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces has been sold out in 1999, and the 2000 annual corn in stock has been supplied to the two major companies for export, of which the export volume of Heilongjiang Province is about 1 million tons, and the export volume of Jilin Province is more than 2 million tons There is not much grain in the grain depots of the two provinces to supply to the market, and domestic consumption can only be supplied when the new grain is listed Recently, new good news came out Since this year, pig production in China has gradually improved The basic trend is: the first quarter stops falling and stabilizes, the second quarter recovers gradually, and the third quarter starts to rise slightly Industry insiders believe that pig production has returned to normal level in the fourth quarter and entered the peak season of pig market The improvement of pig production situation undoubtedly needs a lot of corn as support, which is expected to drive up the price of corn Based on the analysis of all factors, it is very possible that corn will rise again, but it is still in the period of consolidation.