Analysis on the market situation of pig in China

Introduction: in October, according to previous years, the pig market has gone out of the off-season and entered the eve of the market boom season, the purchase and sale price generally falls gradually on the basis of the high price in the third quarter However, due to the changes in pig production and listing this year, the purchase and sale price of pigs in October not only did not decline, but also slightly increased According to statistics of Shanghai Food Group Corporation, the monthly average purchase price of ordinary pigs in October was 3.14 yuan (per 500g, the same below), 3.5% higher than 3.04 yuan in the third quarter, 2.2% higher than September, 6.1% higher than the annual average price last year; the wholesale price of fresh pork was 9721 yuan per ton, 3.3% higher than 9407 yuan in the third quarter, 0.8% higher than September, 6.7% higher than the annual average price last year Although the purchase price of pig is higher than that of the same period last year, due to the increase of feeding cost, the benefit of pig raising is still not ideal According to the prediction of some experts in the producing area and marketing area, the production of pigs will still be stable, moderate and slight decline this winter, and the trend of going on the market in the peak season will not be obvious; the influence of "Clenbuterol" on pork sales in some cities is gradually eliminating the production and marketing situation in this winter, which is expected to be generally balanced under the price adjustment, but the imbalance between regions is increasing 4 main features: first, the main production areas continue to decline slightly The typical survey of pig production in each main production area is once a quarter The survey data of the third quarter (at the end of August) shows that the total pig stock continues to decline slightly for the second time According to the survey of 10 major production areas in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing and Hunan, the total number of pigs on hand at the end of August was 183 million, down 2.2% compared with the same period last year (the first quarter survey increased by 0.9%), In the second quarter, the survey showed a decrease of 1.3%, of which fattening pigs decreased by 2.8% The major decline in total pig stocks was in Sichuan, Jiangsu, Chongqing and other provinces, although there was a small increase or decrease in each other's total pig stocks, the average of the seven provinces was basically the same Second, the main reason for the current sluggish pig production will be the sluggish pig production: first, the number of farmers who go out to work and do business will increase With the gradual opening of urban household policies, the increase of rural young people going out for business and work, and the increase of farmers' Pig Pen Blank rate, some rural areas in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong and other provinces are relatively obvious, and the increase of "pig free villages" in some places is expected to be stopped with the mobilization and guidance of the local government Second, some outbreaks broke out in very few areas In order to avoid risks, farmers put pigs on the market ahead of time in July and August This pig epidemic is characterized by high fever, no eating, infertility and stillbirth of sows after infection, high mortality rate of piglets and pigs after infection, blue hair in the ears after death, which is called "blue ear disease" by the masses, and the local authorities are actively preventing and controlling it The third is the low efficiency of pig raising In August, Zhejiang Province was 1:4.69, Jiangsu Province was 1:4.42, Shandong Province was 1:4.98, Henan Province was 1:4.74, and the arithmetic average of the four provinces was 1:4.71, which was lower than the normal reasonable level The comparative benefit of pig breeding is less than that of aquaculture, vegetable and flower management However, in September and October, the price of pigs slightly increased, and the ratio of pig to grain increased Moreover, pig farming is still a traditional sideline industry in the vast rural areas of China There are many old grains, sugar bran, vegetable skin, melon and rattan, and water duckweed in the rural areas that can be fed and utilized As long as there are appropriate benefits, farmers are still active in pig farming Third, pork sales prospects are likely to show signs of improvement, mainly in two aspects First, with regard to foreign exports, in recent years, China's pork exports have declined sharply In 2000, pork exports, including Hong Kong and Macao, accounted for only 0.3% of the annual output, and the number of imports is greater than that of exports According to recent news, the export of frozen pork to Russia is brewing in some production areas If this sales channel is restored, it will undoubtedly be a good interest for expanding pork sales and supporting pig production Second, with regard to the domestic market, in the previous stage, due to the influence of "Clenbuterol" pork food poisoning cases, pork sales in some cities declined sharply Through the government departments to strengthen the supervision of health quality, and with the passage of time, the impact of residents on this is gradually weakening, and the recent sales of pork slightly recovered (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: