Analysis on the market situation of livestock products from January to September 2002

Introduction: this year, China's animal husbandry production continues to maintain stable development, and the output of main animal products has steadily increased According to agricultural statistics, the output of meat in 30 provinces and cities (except Tibet) reached 50.892 million tons, an increase of 4.9% over the previous year; the output of eggs reached 17.788 million tons, an increase of 5.3%; the output of milk reached 8.894 million tons, an increase of 32.4% From January to September, affected by the decline in the market and export of livestock products, the per capita cash income of farmers from selling livestock products was 298 yuan, an increase of 5.2% over the same period of last year, and the year-on-year growth rate fell by 3.2 percentage points The production and consumption of livestock products entered a stable development stage 1 Stable development of animal husbandry production 1 Overall growth of animal product output From January to September, the output of pigs, cattle, sheep, poultry and eggs in China increased to varying degrees Among them, the output of pork, beef and mutton, poultry and eggs were 33.13 million tons, 6.57 million tons, 10.56 million tons and 17.79 million, respectively, up 3.3%, 6.7%, 6.8% and 5.3% year on year As the prices of pigs, poultry and feed fall, the benefits of breeding have declined, but large-scale breeding is still profitable 2 Stable development of pig production From January to September, there were 469.52 million live pigs in China, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year Among them, the number of fertile sows increased by 3.6% year-on-year, accounting for 8.7% of the total, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year At the end of the season, 44.7 million pigs were released, up 3.8% year on year As the price of live pigs is falling faster than that of piglets, the growth of live pigs on the market is faster than that on the market From January to September, the average market price of pigs in China was 295.7 yuan / 50kg, 4.8% lower than 310.7 yuan last year, and 15.9% lower than the average in the previous five years The average price of pigs in the third quarter of this year was 292.8 yuan / 50kg, 2.6% higher than that in the second quarter, 5.2% lower than that in the first quarter, and the quarterly fluctuation of pigs was weakened The main reason is that the supply of corn and other feed grains is sufficient, and the price is stable, while the price of pig grain ratio is reduced from 5.96:1 at the beginning of the year to 5.28:1 in September, which is lower than the break even point, and the benefit of pig raising is reduced However, due to the low price of piglets this year, the price per 50kg in September was 414 yuan, down 4.8% from the beginning of the year, down 3.5% year-on-year Therefore, although the price of pig food is lower than the normal break even point, pig raising still has benefits 3 The production of cattle and sheep shows a good development momentum From January to September, there were 132.4 million cattle on hand, up 2.1% year on year There were 336.36 million sheep in the stock, an increase of 4.7% year on year The number of cattle and sheep on the market reached 32.35 million and 17 million respectively, up 4.5% and 12.5% year on year respectively This year is the first year of China's accession to the WTO With the demand of the world market for pollution-free, safe and green cattle and sheep food, China's cattle and sheep meat export prospects are promising, which leads to the continuous expansion of domestic production In addition, in recent years, the state has implemented the project of returning farmland to forest and grass, and the livestock products such as cattle and sheep have developed rapidly in China For example, in Inner Mongolia, the development of animal husbandry has been taken as the key point of agricultural structure adjustment, increasing farmers' income, and increasing support and support, which also promotes and drives the development of cattle and sheep production 4 Poultry production grew steadily From January to September, there were 4.57 billion poultry and meat stocks nationwide, down 1.3% year on year, but the stocks of layers and broilers increased Among them, 1.84 billion laying hens and 1.18 billion broilers were on hand, an increase of 41.9% and 70.6% respectively Poultry market reached 6.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% Poultry production grew steadily, mainly due to the rise in prices After several years of fluctuation, the poultry market in China has gradually recovered its stability this year In September, the price of live chicken was 8.95 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.5% over the beginning of the year and a decrease of 1.3% year on year Poultry production has developed towards large-scale and centralized breeding From 8.5:1 at the beginning of the year to 7.9:1 in September, the price of chicken and grain decreased by 6.5%, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, higher than the break even point, and the efficiency of chicken raising picked up The ratio of meat to raw materials keeps increasing, reaching 5.0:1 in September, 2.9% higher than that in January, 5.1% higher than that in the same period of last year, 11% higher than the normal break even point, and the benefit of chicken raising is obviously better than that of pig raising 2 The domestic market of livestock products has not fluctuated much 1 The price of beef and mutton is rising steadily, while the price of pork is falling steadily In the first three quarters of this year, affected by the decline in pig farming efficiency, pork prices fell steadily In September, 10.1 yuan / kg pork with skin and bone removed, down 6.4% from January and the same period last year The price of boneless beef was 14.45 yuan / kg, up 3.5% from 13.97 yuan in January, up 8.9% year on year The price difference between pig and cattle increased from 29.2% in January to 42.9% in September, an increase of 13.6 percentage points The price of mutton with bone was 15.95 yuan, 0.8% higher than 15.8 yuan in January, 5.4% higher than the same period last year From 13.4% in January to 10.4% in September, the price difference between mutton and beef was reduced by 3 percentage points, and the grade difference between pork and mutton was gradually widened 2 The price of live chicken is higher than that of suit chicken The price of live chicken is rising steadily In September, the price of live chicken was 8.95 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.5% over January, down 1.3% year on year The price of suit chicken increased from 9.6 yuan / kg in January to 9.8 yuan in September, an increase of 2.1%, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% The price level is lower than that of last year, and the profit margin is narrowed The main reason why the profit space of broilers shrinks is that the price of broilers increases more than that of Broilers' compound feed In September, the price of commercial broilers was 2.2 yuan / kg, an increase of 11.5% over January, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and the average level was 7.5% higher than that of the previous year; from January to September, the average price of broiler compound feed was 1.8 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% 3 The price of eggs is basically stable, and the price level is higher than that of the same period last year Since September, the price of eggs has been 5.6 yuan / kg, slightly higher than that of last month, basically the same as that of January, but down 2.5% year on year The average price in the first three quarters was 2.3% higher than that in the same period of last year The main reason is that in the first quarter of this year, avian influenza occurred in Hebei, Beijing and other regions, resulting in a large number of deaths of laying hens, a decline in the stock and a rapid rise in egg prices in the short term In late January, the retail price of eggs in Hebei Province was 5 yuan / kg, up 6.4% from the middle of the year, up 19.1% year on year; the price of eggs in Beijing market was 5.2 yuan / kg, up 8.3% from the middle of the year, up 23.8% year on year In February, the national average egg price was 5.6 yuan, up 0.9% from January, up 10.8% year on year After March, with the recovery of chicken production, egg prices fell steadily, reaching the lowest level in April, 5.2 yuan / kg, down 7.7% from January, up 4.7% year on year 3 The export price of most livestock products is lower than that of the international market Due to the great difference between the grade and quality of domestic pig, cattle and mutton and the international market, the price comparability is not strong In order to facilitate the comparison, we use the import CIF price of foreign livestock products to compare with the export FOB price of China's livestock products, from which we can draw some similar conclusions By variety: 1 The FOB price of pork fluctuated, but the total level was higher than last year In the first quarter, the average FOB price of pork export in China increased The highest value in February was 4899 yuan / ton, up 19.1% from January After March, influenced by the EU's ban on the import of Chinese animal products, the export price fell In July, the export FOB price was 4543 yuan / ton, down 7.3% from February, up 37.7% year on year After August, with the lifting of the EU ban, the price of pork rebounded In September, the FOB price was 4809 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that of last month, but it was higher than that of January and the same period of last year, 16.9% higher than that of January, and 37.7% higher than that of last year Compared with the same period last year, the CIF price of pork imports has declined, indicating that the price of pork in the international market has also declined In September, the CIF price of pork was 10850 yuan / ton, slightly lower than that of last month, 1.8% lower than that of January, 7.4% lower than that of last year; the export price of pork was 6041 yuan / ton lower than the import price, and the price difference between import and export was 55.7%, 12.9% lower than that of January, showing a promising prospect for pork export 2 The FOB price of beef export is generally stable, with little monthly fluctuation In September, the FOB price of beef exports was 8918 yuan / ton, down slightly from last month, up 34.8% from January, up 2.5% year on year The total price of beef this year is lower than that of last year, mainly due to the low price of beef in the international market Since this year, China's beef import CIF price is slightly higher than the same period last year In September, the import CIF price was 13527 yuan / ton, down 5.4% from last month, up 11.9% from January, up 7.2% year on year The export price of beef is 4609 yuan / ton lower than the import price The price difference between import and export is 51.7%, 15.7% lower than that in January The export market is good 3 The export FOB price of poultry and offal is basically stable, with the overall price level higher than last year; the import CIF price shows a downward trend, with the price level lower than last year Frozen chicken: export prices have fluctuated greatly since this year, mainly affected by avian influenza in Japan and Hong Kong In the first quarter, the price went down After April, with the increase of poultry import from Japan and Russia, the price of chicken offal picked up After the third quarter, with the increase of beef consumption, the price of chicken offal fell again In September, the FOB price was 4987 yuan / ton, slightly higher than last month, but 20% higher than that at the beginning of the year and the same period last year The international market price is basically stable The CIF price in September was 5658 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.8% and 2% over the previous month and the beginning of the year, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% The price difference between import and export in September was 671 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 57% The export situation is not optimistic Frozen chicken with bone: the export price fluctuates as much as chicken giblets, with the average price lower than last year In September, the FOB price was 4987 yuan / ton, an increase of 19.7% over January and 14.3% over the previous month, a sharp drop to 63.9% year on year The price of bone chicken in the international market has not changed much, and the average price is higher than last year In September, the import CIF price was 6914 yuan / ton, slightly lower than last month, up 13.3% and 14.2% respectively from January and the same period last year The price difference between the import and export of frozen chicken pieces increased from no profit last year to 1928 yuan / ton in September The export momentum was good, and the import and export difference rate expanded to 38.7% Frozen chicken wing (excluding wingtip): the export price is higher than the import price This year, the export price of frozen chicken wings is generally higher than that of the previous year The FOB price in September was 18214 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.4% over the previous month and 12.2% year on year The international chicken wing price is stable, and the average price is higher than last year Among them, the arrival price of chicken wings in Kowloon port in September was 9616 yuan / ton, down 0.6% from January, up 3% year on year 4 The export of livestock products decreased, and the import increased from January to September The total import and export of livestock products continued to increase Among them, the export was 2.05 billion US dollars, down 3.5% year-on-year; the import was 1.53 billion US dollars, up 7.6% year-on-year; the trade surplus of livestock products was 520 million US dollars, down 180 million US dollars year-on-year The proportion of total import and export of livestock products in total import and export of agricultural products decreased from 17.1% at the beginning of the year to 16.8% in September, down 0.3 percentage points, and the situation of livestock products export is not optimistic 1 The export of processed poultry, pork, dairy products, egg products and mutton continued to grow Processed poultry: both import and export grew From January to September, exports totaled 340 million US dollars, up 27.8% year-on-year; imports amounted to 151000 US dollars, up 6.4% year-on-year Pork: import and export increased by a large margin From January to September, the cumulative export was US $250 million, up 49.5% year on year; import was US $100 million, up 32.4% Dairy products: the import and export increased by a large margin From January to September, the cumulative export was US $30903600, a year-on-year increase of 38.14%; the import was US $200 million, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%; the trade deficit was US $150 million, a year-on-year increase of US $200 million Egg products: export growth is greater than import growth From January to September, the cumulative export was US $290 million, up 14.4% year on year; the import was US $308000, up 0.6% year on year Among them, the export of fresh eggs reached US $200 million, an increase of 30.1% year on year; the export of processed eggs (including preserved eggs and salted eggs) reached US $100 million, a decrease of 0.01% year on year Mutton: export has increased substantially From January to September, the cumulative export reached US $1.794 million, up 51.5% year on year 2 Beef, natural bee, royal jelly and poultry