Analysis on the favorable factors of American soybean and Maize

Introduction: soybean: the soybean content in the new USDA supply and demand report is conducive to the short-term market of soybean The new positive information includes: (1) there was a slight decrease in the assessment of planting and harvesting area in 2001-02 (2) the average yield per acre decreased from 39.5 Pu to 38.7 PU (3) the output decreased from 2935000 Pu type ears to 28670000 Pu type ears (4) in 2000-01, the transfer inventory was reduced by 5 million Pu type ears The disadvantageous information in the new report includes: (1) reduction of 5 million Pu ears in the crushing plan (2) the export plan will be reduced by 20 million Pu type ears The change in the new supply and demand report resulted in a decrease in closing inventory from 345 million Pu to 300 million PU The average farm price of soybeans increased by 35 cents per bushel from the July report of $4.50 per bushel The new good news should support a slight rise in the soybean market, but there are other factors to offset the positive impact Negative information includes Brazil and Argentina's soybean crop forecast for 2001 / 02 to grow again, Argentina's production increased from 25.5 million metric tons to 26 million metric tons, Brazil's production increased from 38 million metric tons to 39 million metric tons Another key uncertainty is the impact of weather conditions on crops in the remaining months of August and September The exact yield of soybeans in the United States will be determined by the weather conditions in August September, because the single yield can be increased or decreased due to the weather On the technical side, the long-term support is at $4.00, and the long-term resistance is at $5.60 - $5.42 If the short-term resistance level is broken, the long-term resistance level will become the target price The weekly export inspection as of August 2 was weak at 10.359 million PU Corn: corn content in the new US agricultural supply and demand report is mostly positive Favorable changes include: (1) there was a small reduction of 100000 acres in the 2001-02 sown and harvested area assessment (2) the average unit yield of 2001-02 decreased from 137 PU / acre reported in July to 133.9 PU / acre reported in August (3) the production forecast decreased from 949500 Pu type ears to 926600 Pu type ears (4) in the July report, food, seeds and other plans increased by 15 million Pu ears (5) the export plan for 2001-01 is adding 50 million Pu type ears on the basis of the July report Another favorable adjustment is that the export plan of 2000 / 01 has increased by 50 million Pu ears Considering that the total export inspection as of August 2 is 1.672 billion Pu ears, to reach the new 1.875 billion Pu ears export plan of the U.S Department of agriculture, in the remaining four weeks of 2000-01, the average weekly export inspection will exceed 50 million Pu ears As of August 2, the weekly export inspection was 42.569 million Pu type ears New corn information is favorable for short-term market Technically, the long-term support is $1.78 - $1.85, and the long-term resistance is $2.60 - $2.90 The short-term resistance for September futures was $2.41 Additional positive news is that China's corn production forecast for 2001-02 has been reduced from 11.5 million metric tons to 10.5 million metric tons Argentina's 2001-02 corn production assessment also decreased from 16.5 million metric tons to 16 million metric tons Wheat: in my opinion, the wheat part of the new USDA supply and demand report is basically neutral, because the only change is that the average unit yield in 2001 / 02 increased slightly from 40 PU / acre to 40.2 PU / acre The inventory evaluation at the end of 2001-02 increased from 610 million Pu ears to 616 million Pu ears In the long run, the changes of wheat production in some parts of the world support American wheat Canada's wheat production forecast fell to 2250 metric tons from 25 million metric tons in the previous July report In addition, the EU wheat production assessment decreased from 96.14 million metric tons to 94 million metric tons, while China's wheat production in 2001 / 02 decreased from 96 million metric tons to 94 million metric tons If these new forecasts hold, they will support the wheat market in the long run As of August 2, the weekly export inspection of wheat was 24.454 million Pu type ears A weaker dollar may be good for exports, but it will take a while for the dollar to remain weak Strong exports remain the key to wheat prices, as supply is significantly lower than last year and ending inventories are significantly lower than last year The long-term technical support is from $2.30 to $2.38, and the long-term resistance in recent CBT period is from $3.00 to $3.21 Crop data: total amount of export inspection (unit: million bushels) accumulated amount: accumulated difference percentage of wheat 24.45412.21717.600145.93186.61-21.80 corn 42.56944.04439.1071672.101756.06-4.78 soybean 10.3598.8449.304971.81937.963.6