Analysis on the driving force of the price rise of corn market in April

Introduction: at present, the purchase price of new corn in the main production area of Northeast China and the ex warehouse price of the grain sector have increased significantly At present, the purchase price of new corn in the main production area of Northeast China and the ex warehouse price of the grain sector have increased significantly The price of Jilin car board is 970 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the month With the continuous rise of corn price in the production area, the closing price of corn in the main ports in Northeast China also rose steadily The closing price in Dalian port was 1050-1060 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month The warehouse price of Fuzhou in southern sales area is 1150-1170 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month, Zhejiang 1070 yuan / ton (18-20% water) 1130 yuan / ton (15% water), up 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month The larger increase is that the arrival price in Shanghai is 1120 yuan / ton, 20-40 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, 1120-1130 yuan / ton (boat board) in Shekou port, Guangdong, 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month, 1130-1170 yuan / ton higher than that in Jiangsu, 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month The main factors that affect the price rise are: zxd 1, shrinking purchase volume and rising purchase price At present, the number of acquisitions in various regions is significantly reduced The weekly average number of acquisitions in Jilin Province is less than 200000 tons, 30% lower than the annual level, and the purchase price is significantly increased Most of the corn in the hands of farmers has been purchased, and the amount of corn available for sale is not large The present situation of periodical shortage of supply It is understood that before the festival, the farmers have sold 60% of the corn output of the year, deducting 30% of the farmers' own consumption After the festival, the number of corn available for sale by Jilin farmers is not more than 1.7 million tons In recent years, due to the decrease of corn supply in Huang Huai Region of North China, the number of customers from Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangxi and Fujian who come to the northeast to purchase corn has increased significantly, which is also an important factor to promote the price rise Zxd 2 The psychology of reluctant to sell is serious At present, the purchase price of corn in the eastern region is 1-3 points higher than that before the Spring Festival, among which Changchun, Gongzhuling, Songyuan, Nong'an and Yushu are the most obvious It is understood that at present, farmers still have some high moisture corn for sale However, affected by the rapid price increase in the near future, farmers generally believe that there is still room for price increase in the later period, so they are not willing to sell grain and are all waiting for price Zxd 3 Due to the decrease of planting area, the corn yield in China decreased in 2003-04, which created conditions for the corn to go up In 2003, China's corn planting area was 24 million hectares, a year-on-year decrease of 500000 hectares, a decrease of 2.04% The area of northeast and North China decreased a lot, and the planting structure of northeast region was adjusted to compress the area of high moisture corn with long growth period Compared with the previous year, the spring sowing area of corn in Heilongjiang Province decreased by 4.71 million mu, to 27.321 million mu, down 14.7% The sown area of maize decreased by 7.6% in Hubei Province As the planting area and unit yield are expected to decrease, it is expected that China's corn production in 2003-04 will decrease compared with the previous year, laying the foundation for the upward market price Zxd 4 With the decrease of inventory pressure, the market supply and demand have changed According to statistics, the national corn inventory was about 57.75 million tons in 2002 In order to reduce the inventory pressure, more than 100 competitive fairs were held in 25 provinces and cities in 2002, selling more than 20 billion jin of old grain, greatly reducing the inventory pressure In 2003, the inventory was only 49 million tons This year, it is predicted that the consumption of feed corn in China will continue to increase, with 90 million tons of feed corn and 12.5 million tons of industrial corn From the perspective of aquaculture, there are obvious signs of recovery Due to the concentration of livestock and poultry before the Spring Festival, there is a rapid supplement of livestock and poultry and a significant increase in demand for corn Due to the growth of demand, and the shortage of feed wheat supply in 2003 / 04, it means that the growth of demand for breeding and feed industry will have to be compensated by the increase of feed corn consumption, which will inevitably drive up the price Zxd 5 China's import and export situation this year: it is estimated that in the first half of 2003, American corn is not likely to enter the Chinese market, but after entering the second half of 2003, American corn is likely to enter the Chinese market However, due to the restriction of the whole supply and demand situation, even the amount of foreign corn imported is relatively low Therefore, the impact of import quotas will not impact the spot market Moreover, there is still a huge price gap between the export prices of corn from the United States and China, which is quite beneficial for China to increase exports and restrain imports Export: corn export continued to maintain growth momentum this year According to the national grain and oil information center, the annual export volume is expected to be 12 million tons, an increase of 3.39 million tons compared with the previous year At present, the focus of corn sales in the grain sector of the northeast region has obviously shifted to foreign trade In February alone, Jilin Province exported 1.38 million tons of corn, and the price of corn export and supply also rose It is understood that in early April, the price of Dalian port increased by 15 yuan / ton to 1035 yuan / ton (the export price was 108 US dollars)/ T) for domestic suppliers, the price is attractive to some extent The increase of supply price supports the domestic corn price Zxd 6, international market It is estimated that the global corn production in 2002 will be 1% lower than that in the previous year, and the consumption will be basically the same as that in the previous year As the output is significantly lower than the demand, the global corn ending inventory in 2002 / 03 will be reduced to 107 million tons, and the inventory consumption ratio is only 17.2% As the total supply in the market decreases, the price will be supported In terms of spot goods in the international market, the Gulf War has led to the rise of oil prices, which directly affects the rise of ship freight prices and leads to the firmness of spot prices, which will surely promote the rise of prices At present, the import cost of corn in the Gulf of Mexico in March is 1386 yuan / ton, which is 40 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month The rise of foreign prices will inevitably drive the corn market in China upward Zxd to sum up, the author expects that corn in Northeast China will occupy a leading position in the southern corn market With the decrease of corn export quantity in North China, Huang Huai Region, and the increasing export strength and the cooperation of some favorable factors, the corn market will continue to bear the rising trend ZxD