Analysis on the current situation of domestic soybean market

Introduction: realistic factors of promotion and inhibition, expected positive effect and negative effect exist together in the market The domestic soybean market has the possibility of upward impact, while the expectation of downward pressure is also accumulating Under the joint effect of various factors, it is expected that the domestic soybean market in April will be mainly in oscillatory operation
After the announcement of the Interim Measures for genetically modified soybean, the price of soybean market in China stopped rising and fell According to the statistics of the National Food Information Center, the purchase price of soybean platform in Jixian District of Heilongjiang Province is 1640-1660 yuan / ton, that in Bei'an district is 1650-1670 yuan / ton, that in Qiqihar district is 1700-1720 yuan / ton, that in Harbin district is 1740-1760 yuan / ton, and that in Siping District of Jilin Province is 1780-1800 yuan / ton The delivery price of domestic soybean is 1850-1870 yuan / ton in Dalian, Liaoning, 1890-1900 yuan / ton in Cangzhou, Hebei, 1900-1920 yuan / ton in Linqing and Taian, Shandong and 1940-1960 yuan / ton in Xuchang, Henan In the short term, how to move the domestic soybean market has become the focus of the industry at this stage In this regard, the author tries to analyze from the following aspects: the railway freight is reduced, and the favorable factors in the production areas appear
News background 1: the notice of the State Planning Commission and the Ministry of Railways on encouraging the development of bulk grain transportation and reducing the charges of some railway transportation links at the end of February, including: (1) the Jinyao railway of Dalian Railway Sub Bureau was changed to be carried out according to the unified national railway freight rate, and the railway construction fund was collected according to the specified standards, and the pricing mileage and the official business lines of other national railways (including the implementation of the unified freight rate) Operation temporary management line) （2） Harbin and Shenyang railway bureaus will reduce the organization service charge of self provided vehicles for bulk grain transportation (including L18, L17 and other models, the same below) to 0.5 yuan per ton for delivery and arrival, and no organization service charge will be charged for empty vehicle return （3） Railway transport enterprises and other operators of railway goods extension services must strictly implement the relevant provisions of the measures for the administration of charges for railway goods transportation extension services, and shall not charge for railway goods transportation extension services without providing corresponding services, and shall not force or force charges No extension service fee shall be charged for grain loaded or unloaded on the special railway lines owned by grain enterprises （4） The competent price departments at all levels shall strengthen the temporary supervision and inspection of railway transportation charges, and investigate and deal with the illegal acts in violation of the provisions of this circular, such as raising the charging standards, expanding the charging scope, compulsory service and compulsory charging prices without authorization
News background 2: according to the notice of the State Planning Commission on exemption from the railway construction fund for grain, cotton and other bulk agricultural products, from April 1, 2002 to December 31, 2005, the railway construction of the whole vehicle transportation of rice (1110), wheat (1120), rice (1130), wheat flour (1140), corn (1150), soybean (1160), seed cotton (1210) and lint (1220) was exempted Set up a fund The local construction surcharges collected by the railway in Fujian, Anhui, Jianjiang and Guizhou provinces are also exempted from the above-mentioned goods The successive issuance of the two policies indicates that from now on, the railway freight of grain in the mainland will be greatly reduced The decline of railway freight is a combination of advantages and disadvantages for the production and marketing of domestic corn market First of all, the good embodiment of the production area The reduction of railway freight plays a positive role in promoting the prices of various grain varieties including soybeans in the production area, reducing the cost of sales and enhancing the competitive advantage of soybeans in the production area It is expected that with the reduction of railway freight, the Northeast production area will be affected by this and increase the ex warehouse price of soybeans, which will play an effective role in pulling up the market in the production area Secondly, the negative performance of the sales area After the railway freight is lowered, the soybean sales price in the production area is expected to rise However, the increase of the seller's market price will not be higher than the reduction of the railway freight Therefore, the soybean price transported to the sales market is bound to be lowered, and the sales price is difficult to maintain the original price, which has a negative effect on the market The price is low, and the enthusiasm of soybean farmers is declining News background: Recently, according to the latest survey of the National Bureau of statistics, the price of raw grain in China increased except for soybeans in 2001 According to the survey on the prices of rural markets in 100 counties in China, at the end of 2001, the prices of indica rice, high-quality indica rice, japonica rice, wheat and corn increased by 6.9%, 6.7%, 0.8%, 6.6% and 6.2% compared with the same period of last year With the increase of grain price and the increase of planting income, farmers' confidence in grain production has been enhanced In 2001, China imported 13.94 million tons of soybeans, resulting in overstocking of soybeans in the main production areas and low soybean prices The key factor for the decline of domestic soybean market price lies in the imbalance of soybean production and demand structure in 2001, and the domestic production is far from meeting the domestic market demand With the development of soybean pressing in coastal areas, many large-scale soybean pressing and processing companies are purchasing stable and high-quality raw materials for their intensive pressing equipment Although China is the fourth largest soybean producer in the world, with an annual output of about 15 million tons, it is far from meeting the crushing demand of nearly 22 million tons in the domestic crushing industry every year In addition, those modern crushing plants have a headache because they have to use imported raw materials, which are also available in China However, for users from the northeast to the south of China, the freight of soybeans is more expensive than that from the U.S Gulf or Pacific Northwest port to China Therefore, it is inevitable to import soybeans According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported a large number of soybeans in 2001, with a total import volume of 1339400 tons, which led to the weak price of soybeans in the main soybean production areas Therefore, domestic soybean growers are expected to It will reduce the area of soybean planting Take Heilongjiang Province, the main soybean producing province, as an example The soybean planting area in Heilongjiang Province will be reduced by more than 300000 hectares Heilongjiang Province is the largest soybean planting Province in China The significant reduction of its planting area will lead to the decrease of the total soybean planting area in China, which is expected to be 4.2% lower than the previous year
Due to the slight decline of sowing area, the psychological expectation for the decline of domestic soybean yield in the later period is enhanced As we all know, the yield is the most basic influencing factor in the grain market, which can be said to determine the market development trend and play an extremely important role in the operation of the market The expected decline of sowing area is undoubtedly a good support for the market, which is based on the expectation The reduction of production, the continued growth of consumption, and the inference made under the condition that the quantity of imports is equal to that of last year will continue to promote the market even if the factors change The number of imports has increased unabated, and the price is expected to be under pressure News background: in January and February 2002, China imported 1.06 million tons of soybeans, including 587000 tons and 473000 tons in January and February, respectively Compared with the arrival volume in two months, the decrease rate reached 23.9%, and at the same time, it also decreased 217000 tons compared with 690000 tons in the same period of last year By the end of February this year, China had imported 1059000 tons of soybeans, slightly lower than the 1.07 million tons in the same period last year, a decrease of 1.2% Last year, China imported 13.94 million tons of soybeans from the United States, Argentina and Brazil As a result, the inventory of soybeans transferred to this year is very large In fact, since the introduction of the genetically modified policy, due to the vague policy provisions, international traders have been very cautious about exporting soybeans to China, taking a wait-and-see attitude rather than taking too many risks In the first two months of this year, China's soybean imports decreased However, the soybean import volume is expected to increase significantly in the following March According to the tracking of the soybean shipment in the United States, the total soybean shipment volume in January reached 1.2 million tons According to the estimation, these soybeans still arrived at the Chinese port in February, but only 470000 tons arrived, which means that there are still 730000 tons of American soybeans not included in the statistics It is estimated that these soybeans are not included in the statistics Soybeans will be shown in the statistics in March Another tracking report shows that the total soybeans shipped by the United States to China in February was 690000 tons, and these soybeans should also arrive in March So, add the two statistics together, the import figures of soybeans in March will reach 1.4 million tons At present, the latest statistics of the customs have not been released, but the expected quantity will be large, This is not good for the formation of domestic soybeans, port soybeans may be overstocked On the whole, the positive and negative effects of the real promoters and suppressors, the expected positive and negative effects are common in the market The domestic soybean market is likely to rise, while the expectation of the downward pressure is also accumulating Under the common effects of various factors, it is expected that the domestic soybean market in April will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: