Analysis on the current situation and trend of corn supply and demand in China

Introduction: EHP since this year, due to the influence of three major factors, i.e adjustment of planting structure, accession to WTO and natural disasters, the planting proportion, output and supply and demand of corn in China have changed a lot, which has attracted the attention of producers, consumers and relevant parties This article only talks about the personal materials for your reference EHP l supply and demand EHP 1.1 production EHP first from the perspective of sowing area According to the survey, in 2001, the corn planting area in China increased after a significant reduction in the previous year It is estimated that the growth rate in Northeast China will reach 4%, Liaoning and Inner Mongolia will be basically the same as last year, Jilin will increase by 2% and Heilongjiang will increase by 11%; North China and South China will increase slightly, with an average increase of nearly 4% nationwide, and the planting area will be about 24 million hectares There are five main factors for the increase of corn area caused by EHP First, due to the large reduction of corn production caused by the disaster in 2000, the purchase price of corn in the end of last year and the beginning of this year increased significantly In January this year, the purchase price of corn in Jilin Province (below 20 waters) has reached 0.92 yuan / kg, an actual increase of about 40% compared with the same period last year, mobilizing the enthusiasm of farmers to plant corn; second, although the purchase price of other food varieties has increased, the increase is far lower In corn, especially before spring sowing, soybean prices fell down again, making farmers optimistic about corn; third, last year's drought, many reservoirs had no water or lack of water in spring, which affected rice planting to a certain extent; fourth, a part of the dry and dead seedling plots in Northeast China planted precocious corn; Fifth, there are several heavy rainfall in June and July in North China, which is conducive to the sowing of summer corn, so that some white land and corn growing plots caused in early spring are planted with corn EHP is followed by investment Due to the high price of corn in sowing time, the input of farmers increased compared with that of the previous year However, due to the decreasing income of planting industry in recent years, the funds in the hands of farmers are limited and the input increase is not very large EHP third, from the perspective of climate conditions This year's climate is not good for corn growth From April to the middle of June, there was a continuous drought in spring and summer In Northeast, North and Northwest China, there was high temperature, little rain and strong wind, and the soil moisture was insufficient Some places were unable to sow normally, which delayed the sowing and growth period of corn, and some young seedlings died of drought By the end of May, the affected area had reached 300 million mu and 400 million mu; Most of the corn seedlings are not strong, short and thin, which is the worst year for seedlings Although the drought is serious this spring, the work of drought resistance and seedling protection in many places has achieved good results After the middle of June, continuous rainfall occurred in Northeast, North and Northwest China, and the drought was basically alleviated Most of the plots grew well after corn rain, and the disaster was not expected to be serious However, from the perspective of agricultural time, rainfall comes later Some dry dead corn can only replant the corn varieties with short growth period and the lowest yield, and some corn varieties with poor seedling situation will be affected the most EHP combined with the above factors, this year's corn yield reduction has become a foregone conclusion The final yield depends on the accumulated temperature over the next 50 days and the time of the first frost If the later climate conditions are normal, the average yield of corn in China will be reduced by 10% in Zuoshi (nearly 20% in the northeast) If the per unit yield of corn in 1998 is calculated as 5.3 tons / ha, the per unit yield will be 477 tons / ha If the sown area is 24 million ha, the total yield will be about 114 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons or 7.5% over the previous year; If the climate is unfavorable, the average yield reduction of corn in China will exceed 150%, and the total yield will be less than 108 million tons EHP 1.2 consumption EHP at present, the quantity of corn used for ration and seed consumption in China is basically stable, and the biggest impact on corn consumption is feed grain Since this year, domestic aquaculture and broiler breeding have maintained a good momentum, and pig and beef cattle breeding has gradually turned prosperous Especially recently, ASEAN and Hong Kong SAR of China have relaxed the restrictions on domestic poultry products, avoided further stimulating the production of breeding industry, and increased the consumption of feed corn, thus driving the demand for corn The consumption of industrial corn is still increasing gradually, especially the processing capacity of the production area is increasing, and some corn deep processing projects are put into production successively, such as the expansion of Celeste and Dacheng in Jilin Province It is estimated that 85 million tons of feed corn, 11 million tons of industrial processing corn and 120 million tons of domestic corn will be consumed in the whole year If exports are added, the total demand is 128 million tons EHP 1.3 import and export EHP in 2000, with the support of the national price subsidy policy, the export of corn in China increased to over 10 million tons, which played an important role in promoting the price of corn in the domestic market This year, although China's corn export volume has decreased compared with last year, it is expected to reach more than 7 million tons According to customs statistics, China's corn exports in January and may totaled 3.01 million tons Recently, under the situation of rising domestic corn market price, the state further increased the encouragement of corn export On the basis of last year's subsidy of 368 yuan / ton, an additional 10 yuan / ton was added, and an additional 40 yuan was awarded, totaling 418 yuan / ton This will further promote the export of corn, which is likely to be close to the completion of the export target of 8 million tons in the whole year EHP 1.4 stock EHP as a result of corn production reduction and export boom in 2000, China's corn stock has declined significantly since this year, especially in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces However, the inventory is still at a high level, and the distribution is very uneven, most of which are concentrated in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces By the end of June, China's corn commodity inventory was more than 46 billion kg, down 15 billion kg from the same period last year With various reserves, the total inventory was close to 60 billion kg The inventory of commercial corn in Northeast (Inner Mongolia) accounts for about 80% of the country, and that in Jilin Province accounts for about 40% of the country In terms of inventory structure, the grain sector in Northeast China has received very little low-cost corn in the past two years, which is basically the high price corn purchased before 1998 The average ex warehouse cost is 130 yuan / ton EHP 1.5 situation of corn in the international market EHP since the autumn grain market was launched in 2000, the output of crude grain in the world has exceeded that of the previous year due to the increase of 24 million tons of corn in the United States, leading to the decline of the international corn market price In the middle of June, corn prices on the Chicago Board of trade fell to an all-time low of only $82 per ton Although they have recovered, they have not risen much, up only about 5 cents According to the latest data released by the U.S Department of agriculture in July, the world corn output in 2000 / 2001 was 584.6 million tons, a decrease of 21.37 million tons over last year; the consumption was 603.4 million tons, only a slight increase of 300000 tons over last year The year-end inventory is expected to be 105.8 million tons, down 18.88 million tons from the previous year; the annual average price of corn in the United States is expected to be $689-84.7, up 5 cents from the previous month's estimate EHP 2 Analysis of recent corn market trend EHP domestic corn price has continued to rise since the second half of 2000 In addition to the short-term co-ordination in February and March this year to L, 150 yuan / ton (Dalian flat price), it began to rise again in the middle of April In early July, Dalian Port corn flat price reached 1220 yuan / ton After July 10, affected by the grain sales policies of some production areas, the price of corn fell slightly, but it soon recovered to the price before falling, and hovered here At present, the delivery price of the third-class corn car board in the production area is 1100 yuan / ton in Jilin Province, 350 yuan / ton higher than that in the same period of last year, up about 46.7%, 1070 yuan / ton in Heilongjiang Province, 1310 yuan / ton in Dalian, Qinhuangdao and other ports, 1200 yuan / ton in Shandong Province and 1220 yuan / ton in Henan Province, 1320 yuan / ton in Guangdong Province, 1340 yuan / ton in Guangxi Province and 1 yuan / ton in Shanghai, 290 yuan, 1320 yuan in Fujian and Zhejiang EHP 2.1 in the near future, the domestic corn price still has a certain upward momentum EHP From the trend, the domestic corn price still has a certain upward momentum in the near future, and the main factors supporting the rise are: EHP (1) Affected by the substantial reduction of corn production last year, the domestic corn inventory has declined significantly, and farmers have almost no surplus corn to sell In addition, with a large export volume, enterprises in the production area are reluctant to sell, while purchasers in the sales area are active in purchasing goods, initially forming a seller's market After EHP (2) entered June, corn was basically sold out in North China and Huanghuai area The corn in Inner Mongolia is basically no longer sold out The domestic supply is mainly concentrated in Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces The supply of grain is tight, and the enterprises need to sell at a price that is less than a certain price, so they are not easy to sell EHP (3) the domestic breeding industry has gradually recovered, the feed demand has increased the most, and the price has continued to rise However, the stock of feed manufacturers is not large, so it is urgent to purchase corn to drive the price of corn stronger Because of the influence of spring drought on EHP (4), this year's corn yield is not optimistic Although the drought has been alleviated since the middle of June, the yield reduction has become a foregone conclusion Two consecutive years of drought affected people's expectations on the supply level of corn in China, and promoted the formation of the seller's market At present, there is no sign of large-scale import of corn in EHP (5) On the contrary, in order to reduce the corn stock before entering WTO, the government increased the export encouragement and promoted the corn export EHP (6) the support of the down price sales policy In recent two years, the newly purchased corn in the production area has been basically sold out, and the remaining corn is the high price corn purchased before 1998 Restricted by the favorable price sales policy, only when the price reaches about 1130 yuan / ton can the corn enter the market one after another EHP (7) the planting area of corn in the United States this year is 4% less than that of last year, and the world corn inventory is down At present, the corn price in the international market is stable and slightly rising EHP 2.2 space for corn price to continue to rise limited EHP (1) corn planting area expanded compared with the previous year After the middle of June, the drought eased and corn grew well, which raised people's expectation of corn output this year and restrained the high price rise of corn EHP (2) although the domestic corn stock is still high, the results of clearing and checking also show that at present, the corn stock in China is relatively abundant and the water content is not large EHP (3) the main production area wants to take advantage of the favorable opportunity of the higher price of corn at present and sell the corn in stock moderately Generally, it will not follow the old road of "the higher the price, the less the price" In particular, when the delivery price of Jilin corn plate reaches 1130-1150 yuan / ton, and the flat price of Dalian reaches L, 250 yuan / ton, the high-priced corn in the production area will be delivered successively, and the supply pressure will increase EHp (4) The new measures of grain purchase and sale expenses and interest subsidies to be issued by the state and the notice on further promoting the sale of grain at a favorable price have also promoted the sale of grain by the state-owned grain enterprises in the production areas Some provinces have started to use the grain risk fund to subsidize the excess storage expenses instead of the original single one, in combination with the local actual situation Subsidies will be provided in two links to encourage enterprises to save less and sell more EHP (5) if the specific price of corn is higher, some feed enterprises and feeders will adjust the formula to replace corn with wheat and early indica rice, which will reduce the use of corn and reduce the price EHP (6) at present, the domestic corn price has reached a high price area, and there is limited room for further increase The practice in the past ten years has shown that: in the current situation, once the delivery price of corn car plate in the Northeast production area is close to 1200 yuan / ton, the flat price in Dalian port is more than 1300 yuan / ton, and the average wholesale price in the sales area is more than 1400 yuan / ton, corn price storage is facing a strong pressure First, coastal corn sales areas began to try to buy imported corn through various ways to reduce the demand for domestic corn; second, export corn